Consumer Discretionary Stocks

Bullish on Tesla Fundamentals

"And they short good companies with good management teams at bad prices. And I really think it\'s the quality of the company and the management team that matters the most. So like everyone who\'s short Tesla I think is making a gigantic mistake because it kind of fundamentally is a good company and it kind of fundamentally a great management team."

Amazon Trade Call: Buy Ahead of Earnings

"To answer the question, is Amazon stock a buy before earnings? I think so. I bought Amazon stock before earnings. It was a few weeks ago, but I guess it was before earnings. Um, if youre interested in Amazon stock, buying before earnings is fine. If you want the less risky approach, you can buy it after earnings or you can split your purchase in two and buy half before and half after. But I wouldnt mind buying ahead of earnings. Its not so uh clear-cut where I would say yes, definitely buy it before earnings. You dont want to miss out on the upside. I cant say that. I also wont say that its too expensive that you should wait until after earnings. No, I think its a buy right now."

Nike Stock Value Trap: Avoid Buying

"So, is Nike stock a buy here today? I don't think so. I think this continues to be a value trap in the future of athletics is going to be these smaller, more niche brands that are playing in a in the high end of the market and are able to have higher growth, higher operating profits, and are trading for only a slight premium in the market. For investors, riskreward matters and Nike is much higher risk than a lot of people think."

Adding to Carnival Cruise Line Position on Dip

"Carnival Cruise Line, they reported earnings last week, 10th straight quarter of record revenue, and they lifted their outlook. ... It's still a strong buy in the quant. I will be looking to add to this position."

Trade Call on Stellantis as a Cyclical Opportunity

"I think we are cheap enough. So you can buy now and then you buy again if it goes down 30 40% you sell regain your position back then when it comes back because it should be cyclical. It has a lot of cash. It will survive."

Company Commentary on Alibaba Amid Changing China Sentiment

"Alibaba, everybody was anti-China for the longest time. Chinas awful. Chinas terrible. I look at it going, China loves money. They love their middle class growing and becoming rich. And their rich love being richer. Yeah, theyre communists, but I just look at it going 20, 30 years down the road, will China be more free and wealthier than it is today? Yes, I think they will. So, the question becomes, is Alibaba going to benefit from that? Yes, they will. So, can I pay a reasonable price for Alibaba? Well, Alibaba is the biggest gainer out of all these companies this year. It is up huge. So, that has changed whether its a good investment or not. We will take a look at that at some point."

General Motors surges on profit guidance and tariff relief

"Let's start with General Motors. That's ticker GM. This is the second biggest performer that we saw in the S&P 500 behind Intuitive Surgical. And we did see the stock gaining 19% this week. This is all after 15, right? Insane. 15% surge on Tuesday of this week. That's really what's propelled the stock higher. This is after the automaker raised its profit guidance on buoyant truck sales and of course a dose of tariff relief. I mean we've been talking about Ford a lot this week as well."

Positive Momentum for Ford (F)

"I'm looking at shares of Ford. This is the biggest gainer in the S&P 500 right now. That's ticker F. Keeping it easy for us there. Seeing its best day in almost four years. This is a company really signaling that it'll largely bounce back next year from a devastating fire that we did see at one of the key suppliers that of aluminum for its F-150 pickup truck. Of course, the company also talking about a profit beat here and a boost to production more generally. So, we are seeing shares up for double digit gains right now. But if you look on a year-to-date basis, shares of Ford are up about 41%. So, looks like it's a great day to be a Ford shareholder today."

Bullish Contrarian Play on Starbucks via Options Activity

"Huh, that's very interesting. It's a contrarian play and you have so much negative sentiment on Starbucks right now. Why would this trader do this? And I thought, well, let's look at the risk versus reward. If everyone is negative on the company, where's the max pain to the upside? Because the shorts have to cover and the stock can rally. And I was looking a little bit too at the fundamentals. Remember they just got their new CEO from the burrito stock, CMG. Could he really let the company continue to fall? And I thought, you know, it makes sense of why the stock could bounce and I think that could play a big turnaround in this quarter. So, an actually bullish short term on Starbucks."

Muted Recovery Dampens European Chip Makers Like ST Micro

"And of course, we've got our eye on the European chip makers, the likes of ST Micro. Given the West Texas Instruments outlook that came out, ST Micro down 2.7%. Is that the only reason? Uh, well, it seems like ST Micro and also the semi-infin to those chip makers that are exposed to the industrial and automotive chip sector because their peer over in the US, West Texas Instruments, provided quite a disappointing forecast and then said that the recovery in those end markets was slowing down. So the key takeaway for those European chip makers is that you know the industry is in recovery but it's quite a muted recovery, and that muted rebound is dragging down those shares in ST Micro and Infinian even as the talk about the AI boom has led to some bullishness in the broader semiconductor sector."

Cracker Barrel Faces Headwinds After Controversial Rebrand

"Cracker Barrel, ticker CBRL down 7% on Paysport's worst day... they actually wiped out nearly $100 million in value after that rebrand that was very controversial... And it really caused an uproar, unfortunately... it has a weak forecast that's been pressuring that stock. I think I said it last night, about 25% of the float is short."

CarMax Struggles Amid Weak Results and Consumer Distress

"Wall Street analysts and investors really just coming out and saying, "Hey, you know, this is not a good look right now.""

Airbnb Delays Chat GPT Integration

"Airbnb actually said, "Not quite yet. We're actually not ready to partner up at this point." Its CEO, Brian Chesky, said that he didn't integrate his company's online travel app with Open AI's Chat GPT because its connective tools quote aren't quite ready yet. Uh, Airbnb will monitor the development of Chat GPT's integration and may consider a tie-up in the future."

Trade Call: Buy Lululemon at Undervalued Levels

"Now, let's start with Lululemon stock. The apparel retailer, the athleisure company, is trading at a current market price of $178 per share. The fair value I calculated for Lululemon is $256, signaling that this stock is undervalued at the current market price. I'm forecasting that Lululemon's free cash flow increases from 1.36 billion in 2025 to 2.31 billion in 2034. Why are they down so much this year? Well, mostly because of tariffs. The company imports a tremendous amount of products into the United States, and higher tariffs have made their products more expensive to U.S. consumers."

Concerns over fraud hit Zion and Western Alliance

"Yes, exactly. We got a little bit of like 2023 deja vu, which was horrifying. Um, so shares of Zion, which is ticker Zio N and Western Alliance, ticker W, they both fell Thursday after they said they were victims of fraud on loans to fund that invest specifically in distressed commercial mortgages. Um, so today most of these stocks rebounded. Um, the sector was looking a lot more stable. There were a couple of earnings reports from other companies that sort of abated fears of credit stress sort of spreading across the group."

Darden Restaurants Misses in Q1, Analysts Slash Price Targets

"Darden restaurants, ticker DRI, is down 12% this week after dismal first quarter fiscal results prompted a slew of analysts to really just slash their price targets."

Trade Call: Buy Crocs (CROX) for Brand Revitalization and Buyback Yield

"there are a lot of stocks in big draw downs and this is one of them. I actually don't have the exact numbers here. It's a company here that we've talked about and I'm breaking one of my rules on investing in apparel. I am buying Crocs and I listed in the Substack chat. I just wrote out a little I didn't do a full newsletter. I think I'm going to do one here shortly on the company and why I'm buying. I don't know the exact allocation. Again, I'll do that in the newsletter which the link will be directly in the show notes. I just have a couple of lists of what made me want to buy a little bit of an invest versus then investigate scenario where I've followed the company for many years but I don't have like my full-on model and write up and thoughts fleshed out."

DoorDash Benefits from Expanded Kroger Partnership

"That is Door Dash, uh, we are seeing shares of Door Dash rising. Of course, this is after it's expanding its relationship with the grocery store chain operator Kroger. Uh so we are seeing Kroger just up a touch here. Uh but essentially we're looking at Instacart of course in focus. That is a competitor here to Door Dash. But I mean Kroger should be launching almost 2700 of its stores on the Door Dash platform starting October 1st."

Aggressive Buying of Marcato Libre Amid Correction

"And the first stock that I want to discuss that I am actively buying is Marcato Libre. ... So, for all of those reasons, I have continued to buy more Marcato Libre. And I believe that this is actually the number one stock that I have continued to add to my portfolio over the past month. And as the stock has fallen, I have been getting more and more aggressive. If the stock does see any weakness after earnings, and I'm actually kind of expecting it to, then I will be looking to add to my position even more."

"MGM Resorts International, trading at a market cap of roughly $9.44 billion and a price-to-free cash flow of 7.3x, has reduced its shares outstanding by about 52.5% over the past years. Despite headwinds on casino spending, the strong brand and solid buyback yield make it compelling."

Carvana: Impressive Turnaround Coupled with Dilution Risk

"Stock number five is a very interesting one. Carvana went from near bankruptcy in 2022 to posting record revenue, with over $13 billion in revenue and 38 million in profit in Q2 2025. They improved operations by acquiring Adessa, which boosted efficiency, yet the company continues to dilute its shareholders. Analysts expect significant growth, projecting it could sell millions of cars in the coming years, but the current price already reflects these high expectations. If you’re considering investing in Carvana, it’s crucial to understand both its impressive turnaround and the inherent risks of a cyclical, high-risk industry."

Trade Call: Buy Etsy (ETSY) on AI-Powered Initiative

"Etsy became the first major e-commerce company to partner with OpenAI for its instant checkout feature in ChatGPT, showing huge potential for AI-powered shopping in a niche market."

Lenar Under Pressure After Earnings Miss

"Yeah, I want to start with homebuilder Lenar, ticker LEN, right now down 2.6%, trading at the lowest level since mid-August. The stock is down more than 30% in the last 12 months. This comes after not only did they miss earnings on their third quarter results, but also the guidance for 4Q falling short of expectations. It's been a tough market for homebuilders."

Caution on RH Amid Weaker Quarterly Guidance and Weak Performance

"Shares down today by about 2.9%. RH. They operate the restoration hardware chain of stores. ... the premium valuation versus its peers contributed to high expectations going into this print. Shares down today by about 2.9%. RH with the outspoken CEO has already declined 46% this year."

Bath & Body Works (BBWI): Undervalued Retail Opportunity

"My pick is called Bath and Body Works. The ticker is BBWI. The stock price is $28 and analysts are targeting somewhere around $41 to $45, which represents a 50% to 60% upside."

BYD Outlook: Navigating the Post-Subsidy Environment

"I think we're about to see the next chapter play out in the way that Chinese industrial policy works. I don't see BYD's sales decreasing again in another quarter. They'll likely continue to increase."

Cava Holdings Shows Rule Breaker Traits with 20% Revenue Growth

"Yes, mine is Cava Holdings. So this is the Mediterranean-themed restaurant that is... And it's delicious. Absolutely. I wonder if they have an early bird. So this company just continues to grow like gangbusters. And the reason is because people like the food. That's no surprise. But I think what might surprise folks is the company is still expected to grow revenue at around 20% a year for the next three years. The company, these restaurants that they're opening are extremely good on a return on invested capital standpoint. So they target 40% cash on cash returns, which gives them a payback period of about two and a half years, which is pretty phenomenal in this business."

Ferrari Scales Back Electric Ambitions Amid Share Decline

"Yes. So, they have scaled back their electric ambitions essentially. So, they now expect only 20% of their 2030 lineup is going to be fully electric. That's half of what they previously expected. They had expected 40%. And essentially they're filling that gap with their fully uh their combustion cars. So that will now be 40%. So they're doubling their combustion offerings. Essentially showing kind of a renewed focus on engines and that has obviously defined Ferrari for decades. So they're kind of going back to their core following a lot of other car makers that have also pulled back from from electric ambitions. It's it's obviously very expensive. Uh there's been kind of a failure to get enough customers. Um, so Ferrari shares are are dropping almost 2% this morning. Um, we'll be keeping a close eye on them though throughout the morning cuz they're they they've got a couple markets day and they're planning to announce their financial targets."

Conditional Buy Opportunity on Vail Resorts for Attractive Dividend Yield

"Good day fellow investors. A stock that has done terribly over the last few years is Veil Resorts. The ski resort stocks. Let's look at the business, the financial, the value, the quadrant, and whether it fits maybe your portfolio. So for 141 for the stock price just on that expecting the dividend to grow a little bit over time to be at a yield of 5% over time and perhaps there will be two good years of snow and skiing and it will be trendy again and then you can also maybe get capital gain but we are close to a 9% likely return from the stock if we are more exuberant and they managed to grow the dividend 5% over the years. For my personal portfolio I would need it to be another 30 40% down to consider and diversified. If it goes down 20%, I might consider it good yield, good business over time."

DraftKings Faces Increased Competition from Robinhood in Sports Betting

"DraftKings shares fell 11.6% after Robinhood posted trading metrics showing that contracts traded reached about 187 million, signaling increased competition from traditional trading platforms entering the sports betting space."

Mattel Suffers Amid Tariff Uncertainty

"Mattel down at 6.4% sales dipping as tariff uncertainty has delayed some customers orders. North America sales declined 12% from last year. Nathan, the CEO says though the customer's orders are delayed. They're not necessarily cancelled, and they are expecting a boost in fourth quarter sales."

Peloton Faces Churn Risks After Price Hikes

"Peloton down 3.7% today. This after the company raised prices on hardware by an average bump around 11% and subscription fees by 19%. Investors are concerned that maybe you could see some churn with these price increases."

Weak Forecasts Drag Deckers (DECK) Shares

"So, Deckers, ticker deck, we're seeing shares down on pace to close at the lowest level in almost two years, falling as much as 15%. This is because the company reported a weak 2026 sales forecast. We were even seeing, of course, we know this is the owner of Uggs and Hoka as you mentioned here. But we are seeing peer holdings falling as well in sympathy and analysts are really saying in terms of Deckers here that the outlook may be conservative particularly coming from management here. They're saying that this reflects management's cautious view on US consumer spending amid tariff driven price hikes. So not that great right now. I mean especially year-to-date if you look at shares of Deckers down 56%."

Buy American Eagle on Catalytic Brand Renewal

"And then all of a sudden we're like, "all right, get over that. You're dirty old men. Start doing work." And then we realized like, "holy shit, this is trading at like four to five times EBITDA. The balance sheet's clean. There’s 18% short interest." So we bought the stock."

Buy Aptiv on Software Spinoff Catalyst

"Shares are trading for around $83 right now, and they believe the shares will hit around $100... if investors keep viewing both spinoffs as car companies, it could be a bad deal."

Buy call on Space Mobile (AS)

"EST satellite stock is finally heading towards a deep deal zone, which means we are soon going to identify it as a buy idea. We see the deal zone as the $55 to $65 range for the long-term picture. Company has a very unique value ad as a satellite play. 5 billion people own mobile phones, yet hundreds of millions still live in dead zones without reliable coverage. Governments, carriers, and enterprises are all seeking ways to close that gap. AS is aiming to monetize both consumer connectivity and enterprise data partnerships, tapping into a global telecom market worth trillions."

Camping World: Cyclical Rebound with Attractive Valuation and Dividend

"Yeah, I'm going to start with the same two letters, but I'm going to drive in an entirely different direction. I'm going with Camping World, ticker symbol C-W-H. It's the country's leading retailer of recreational vehicles... It just sold a record number of units in its latest quarter. It posted its strongest quarterly profit in more than two years. It also pays a generous quarterly dividend, currently yielding just above 3%."

D.R. Horton as a Resilient Share Cannibal in Homebuilding

"My second pick, I'm going to go with D.R. Horton. They are technically the largest home builder in America, trading at a much cheaper multiple, and they have an 8% buyback yield by spending nearly all their free cash flow on buybacks."

Domino's Strong US Franchise Performance

"We did hear from Domino's. Those shares are up three and a half%. Some decent sales numbers here. Their US franchise, particularly strong, especially for stuffed crust, stuffed crust pizza."

Buy Call on HD

"About two weeks ago, we broke down why we believe that HD at $13.95 was a buy. And it was because, quite frankly, its future merger partner, Terrestrial Energy, is a nuclear energy play on a short list for Department of Energy partners. And if you look at its recent trading, it hit $20.55 at highs on Friday, which is great. But what is the continued case to buy HD stock before they essentially merge and take Terrestrial Energy public? The case that I would make is for starters, theyre fast-to-market nuclear with a modular, capital-light design and rapid regulatory progress."

IHG Turnaround with JP Morgan Overweight Upgrade

"IHG. So, this is Intercontinental Hotels. Why are they moving today? They got double upgraded to an overweight rating by JP Morgan. So, analysts noted that it had a really good high earnings visibility and really good cash flow as well. It's not been necessarily a very smooth last few months for IHG. It's been underperforming its peers. It has as many sell ratings on the stock as it does buy ratings. And its main problem has really been its exposure to the U.S. market ... But now JP Morgan analysts said that following that period of underperformance and weakness, the company is now on the right track to perform better."

Trade Call: Buy JD.com (JD) Call Options for Upside Exposure

"Stock number three on our list today is going to be JD.com, stock ticker JD... Im going to be looking to buy options. And here, we're going to be focusing on buying a call option. And I actually currently have this contract open, but I would be a buyer of the January 16, 2026 $40 call option. You would pay around $2.60 per contract, which would equate to $260, and you would control 100 shares of JD.com at $40."

Karat Packaging Reaps Benefit from Regulatory Shift to Eco-Friendly Packaging

"California, I believe, they just banned plastic bags starting 2026 January. So everybody has to start using paper. California banned styrofoam January of this year. And we're seeing opportunities starting coming everywhere."

McDonald’s Undervalued with Strong Unit Economics

"And last but not least, McDonald's. So you have one company in financial services, you have one company in technology, and you have one company in restaurants or food delivery. McDonald's has demonstrated a capability to deliver food or provide people with food at a very low price in a very consistent way. What's also impressive about McDonald's, and I think many of you might be underestimating, is the company's use of technology to incorporate and adapt to the times and serve customers more effectively. The fair value I calculated for McDonald's is $429. Current market price is $311. So, McDonald's stock looks undervalued at these prices as well. And again, one of the things underestimated, don't underestimate McDonald's on technology, the food delivery and robotics, right?"

Buy Finia as a Hedge Against a Slower EV Transition

"Buy Finia if you don\'t want your portfolio to tank when Tesla goes bankrupt. ... It\'s a great way to hedge your portfolio, not just against Tesla, but the whole EV transition which is not happening as fast as some expect."

Pulte Home (PHM) as a Rotation Play in Homebuilders

"Pulte just happens to be the one we're talking about, but you can take your pick ... this was looking kind of interesting as a rotation play. ... And that does lead me to believe that maybe the housing stocks aren't quite dead yet."

Trade Call: Buy Portillo\"s ($PTLO) on Undervalued Price-to-Sales and Strong Insider Buying

"I was going to talk about two stocks today, Crocs and Portillo\"s... In Portillo\"s you had big inside buys by the CFO and the general counsel at the same time. For this one, I\"d focus on price to sales... it’s trading at 0.68 right now and if the market starts believing, I think that\"s going to go from 0.68 to three pretty quick. You\"re buying it now for half the price with twice as many locations."

Papa John’s Attracts Attention with Offer from Apollo Global

"And there's also news from Papa John's. The stock rose around 10% yesterday and is up another two and a half percent today. This comes on the back of a report that Papa John's has received an offer from Apollo Global Management at $64 a share. It follows speculation in the market, with shares having fallen 65% from their 2025 high."

Opportunistic Trading Adjustments During Volatile Events

"When GameStop was going crazy, we were short it at 27. We were short it again. We covered for a loss. We short it again at, I don't know, 40 or something. I forget the number. And then short it again at 67. We took loss, loss, loss. Then we were long it above 67 and we wrote it to 480 or something like that."

Kura Sushi: Fun Experience but Replicability Concerns

"The Las Vegas of sushi, if you will. I love the experience that is Kura."