Deckers Commentary: Overextended Valuation and Risky Volatility
"So my opinion on deckers is that this is a highly competitive environment. It has flown high, perhaps a little bit too high, and now it's back to the deck. However, we have to see, okay, where is the value? The market is crazy rational, will always overshoot on the upside and overshoot of the downside. And that is where we can find value opportunities. If I look at this, I remember also Sketchers P ratio of seven. I've been following it. And then you get this is the real value private equity. Let's say a 7% free cash flow yield. They would buy also deckers. If there is growth of 10%, I think fair value would be a P ratio of 20 not 12. So in this case maybe this was overshooting but perhaps the trend is there and now we are undershooting that trend."
The speaker provides a detailed commentary on Deckers, noting that while the stock has experienced significant highs, it may now be undervalued relative to its growth potential if normalized to a fair P ratio of 20 rather than its current 12. He underscores the competitive environment and volatility due to fickle consumer preferences, suggesting that the risk-reward profile may not suit his investment criteria.
Weak Forecasts Drag Deckers (DECK) Shares
"So, Deckers, ticker deck, we're seeing shares down on pace to close at the lowest level in almost two years, falling as much as 15%. This is because the company reported a weak 2026 sales forecast. We were even seeing, of course, we know this is the owner of Uggs and Hoka as you mentioned here. But we are seeing peer holdings falling as well in sympathy and analysts are really saying in terms of Deckers here that the outlook may be conservative particularly coming from management here. They're saying that this reflects management's cautious view on US consumer spending amid tariff driven price hikes. So not that great right now. I mean especially year-to-date if you look at shares of Deckers down 56%."
The speaker explains that Deckers is facing significant headwinds with shares falling up to 15% intraday and a 56% drop year-to-date, driven by a weak 2026 sales forecast and a conservative management outlook on US consumer spending impacted by tariff-driven price hikes.
Deckers Outdoor Facing Downside Due to Cautious Consumer Outlook
"Now, there are some stocks in the red this morning, including uh Deckers Outdoor after earnings. I guess investors are saying UGG. Yes, they are. Deckers, the maker of Hoka running shoes and UGG boots, as you mentioned, is in the red, down 13%. They did lower their guidance and the company is saying they are seeing some effects of tariffs on the US consumer. The CFO said that Deckers expects consumers to act increasingly cautious over the next few months and that of course includes the key holiday season. So they are expecting a cautious consumer ramping up into the holiday season which is not great uh for Decker's outlook and the shares are down 13%."
Deckers Outdoor is under pressure following an earnings report that lowered guidance amid concerns over the impact of tariffs and a cautious consumer outlook heading into the holiday season, as reflected by a 13% decline in shares.