Thoughtful Money (with Adam Taggart)

Macro Scenarios: Venezuela's Uncertain Political Transition and US Influence

"Well, I think we covered a lot of ground here. Just in terms of the scenarios that we have outlined five scenarios for how we see the situation likely evolving. And one is in which the new president cooperates with the US and remains in power. Again we are talking about three to six months. There is a scenario in which she defies Washington, then the US resumes the military campaign and then this is a very uncertain scenario because you don't know if the regime stands. There is one that the hardliners house to the president consolidate power and then there is kind of this tension with the US. The fourth scenario is basically the regime collapsing rather than a regime change; the regime collapsing. You have infighting, you have different groups controlling parts of the military and paramilitary apparatus and then this just evolves to an internal armed conflict and basically chaos."

Mario outlines multiple scenarios for Venezuela's political future following Maduro's removal. He identifies a scenario with cooperation with the US over the next three to six months, one where defiance triggers renewed military intervention, and another in which internal collapse leads to chaos. The commentary frames the uncertainty and risks associated with US influence in the region, highlighting complex implications for political stability and, by extension, economic and oil market conditions.

Market Decline Forecast Driven by Liquidity Cycle

"What what I'm really saying is that the odds of the S&P being at current levels by the year end I think are low. Uh in other words, I think that it's going to be I think the market's going to be lower by the year end. My view is that the assets that are very much out of favor now are the ones that are going to come back into favor like government bonds and maybe the US dollar. That's very much a contrarian view, but that would be pretty consistent with what we're seeing in terms of the late cycle flavor of what we're detecting here in terms of the data."

The speaker forecasts a market decline by the year end driven by a downturn in the liquidity cycle. He highlights that assets currently out of favor, such as government bonds and the US dollar, may rebound as liquidity shifts from financial markets to the real economy. This macro insight emphasizes the divergence between a strong real economy and weakening financial markets.

Strong Bullish Call for Silver Investment

"100% silver. 100%. Now, if someone had $10 million, it wouldn't be the same thing because ultimately, you want to continue to buy gold. Ultimately, if when the music stops, it's about gold in my opinion. But the value and the leverage and just the flatout, in my mind best value I've ever seen, most undervalued commodity in the world is still silver."

Andy emphatically advises that for retail investors with modest sums, allocating 100% to silver is optimal given its undervalued status and superior leverage relative to gold. He contrasts this with the approach for larger sums, where gold plays a role for safe storage, indicating a strong conviction that silver offers the best value in the current market.

Trade Call: Trimming Silver Exposure Amid Extreme Runs

-10.48%current return

"The latest move that we made was in our all‐weather portfolio, which has all of our precious metals. We cut our exposure to silver back to its normal base level last week. We took profits because silver had a huge run and grossly deviated from its long-term mean. With margin hikes at the CME increasing risk in precious metals, we believe it's wise to trim our position now and re-enter if prices come down further."

This trade call details a recent adjustment in the portfolio where silver exposure was trimmed to target levels after a significant price run. The action was justified by the deviation from long-term mean levels and concerns over increased margin rates, suggesting a cautious stance on near-term silver performance.

Macro Risk of Mean Reversion in Overextended Markets

"When you look at returns over the last 15 years, we've run average returns 50% above norms. You can't sustain that forever, particularly when the economy is growing at 2%. When you're trading at two standard deviations or three or four from long-term means, that reversion becomes much more probable. Markets function on the balance between buyers and sellers, and if buyers stop paying higher prices, the market could quickly revert to levels around 6,200 or even lower in a recession."

This macro commentary outlines the risk that overextended markets, which have delivered returns well above historical averages, are likely to experience a reversion to the mean. The speaker emphasizes that when asset prices trade at extreme multiples relative to historical norms, a swift correction is probable, especially if buyer demand falters.

Avoid Shorting Silver Amid Imminent Squeeze

"I do have a very strong suspicion that somebody's in trouble on the short side and that this is going to get squeezed much higher and that shorting it here would be suicidal. Um going long it here, you know, I think probably works for a while, but you might have to be nimble. I mean, it could run up to 200 and correct back to 100, right?"

Larry warns investors that shorting silver is extremely risky given the potential for a massive short squeeze. He advises that going long on silver—while requiring nimble management—could be a more favorable approach as the metal may surge significantly before a corrective pullback occurs.

Fed's Rate Cuts Could Fuel Inflation Risks in 2026

"And the mistake is the Fed is cutting rates. They've cut 75 basis points in 2025 to add in to the 100 basis points that they cut in 2024. And they keep citing the labor market. Are they completely misreading this? And yes, the labor market's weak, but the other half labor supply. We don't need that many jobs and we're doing fine. And that will dictate all of 26. If we've overdone it, we risk too much inflation."

Jim Bianco argues that the Fed's aggressive rate cuts, despite a labor market that doesn't require massive job growth, could backfire by fueling sustained inflation. He warns that the easing policy, combined with shifting demographic pressures, may lead to overheated pricing in 2026.

Bullish on Alcoa Amid Changing Aluminum Supply Dynamics

+11.98%current return

"And so when I looked at this, I said, 'Hey, look, for the first time, we actually have a situation where the supply response in aluminum has changed. We're no longer going to see when aluminum prices go up, we're not going to see the Chinese going and just immediately making another smelter. We're not going to, in fact, they might actually be closing some of the other kind of less profitable smelters because it's wasted electricity. They should be using it for AI.' And so I got bullish on Alcoa. Alcoa is this old stock that nobody liked that absolutely nobody talked about. Over the last five years they've been quietly paying down debt. They've been going and immunizing their pension obligations, taking it off the balance sheet so that they're nice and clean."

Kevin Muir expresses bullish sentiment on Alcoa, highlighting a structural change in the aluminum market where Chinese supply is not immediately ramping up in response to price increases due to a shift towards AI investments. He emphasizes Alcoa's recent efforts in debt reduction and balance sheet cleanup, suggesting the stock presents an attractive value play amid broader market rebalancing.

S&P Overbought Conditions Signal Correction Risk

"This is a monthly chart of the S&P going back 25 years. It is rare that we have been this overbought. So the last 25 years, we've only been as overbought as we are right now. 1 2 3 4 5 six times. Each time of those that we've been this overbought has led to a decent correction. This next correction, if it just reverts to its running bullish trend right now, is about a 26 27% correction. If it ultimately reverts to its long-term mean, that's a 60% correction. But this is why you have to be very careful with risk assets in this environment."

The speaker highlights that the S&P has reached overbought levels rarely seen in 25 years, having occurred only six times before. Each instance of such overbought conditions led to a significant market correction, with potential near-term declines of 26-27% on current trends or up to 60% if reverting to long-term averages. This serves as a cautionary note regarding the volatility of risk assets.

Silver Could Reach $100 Ounce: Undervalued by Geological Ratios and Technical Analysis

"Now I want to tell you from a standpoint non-biased you take a 45-year cup and handle [snorts] technical analysis would say the following. When you have the top of the cup at 50 bucks in 1980 and the bottom of the cup at about four bucks in the early 90s, the difference between the two is $46. You add it to the top of the cup when it breaks through, 50 + 46 is $96. That would be technically before you would even re-evaluate where the cup and handle formation would say you're going. I think, and I hate making price predictions, but I will tell you a $100 silver to me is still undervalued. And it is undervalued geologically, mathematically, and from a standpoint of a depleting asset that has plurality in uses."

Andy Schectman provides a macro-level analysis suggesting that silver is undervalued based on longstanding geological ratios and a cup and handle technical formation. He calculates that with gold at around 4300, the inherent value of silver should be near $102 per ounce. Despite hesitancy in price predictions, his reasoning supports a bullish outlook on silver potentially reaching $100, driven by its scarcity and multi-faceted utility.

Energy Stocks as a Hedge in an Inflationary World

"So in the old days, you know, the ultimate portfolio was 60% equity and 40% bonds. That portfolio died with COVID and remains dead because the policy settings have now shifted structurally towards far more inflationary conditions. Today, for the first time in my adult lifetime, one ounce of silver buys a barrel of oil. I tend to believe energy stocks are the new bonds in a world in which bonds no longer work."

Louie Goff explains that the traditional 60/40 portfolio model is obsolete due to new inflationary policies and fiscal stimuli. He highlights an unusual market signal—a silver-to-oil ratio inversion—as evidence of shifting asset dynamics. With bonds failing to offer reliable returns, he asserts that energy stocks have now taken on a bond-like, hedge role, a view that could influence portfolio allocations as the market evolves toward 2026.

Bond Market Breakdown in 2026 Driven by Fiscal & Monetary Madness

"If we don't have a recession, if we don't have a credit crisis, we are going to have a blow up in the bond market just because we have so much fiscal and monetary madness going to happen in 2026. And I think if those bond yields go north of 6% I think that completely submarines the housing market and completely blows up the credit bubble obviously and also the equity bubble."

The speaker warns that in 2026, absent a recession or credit crisis, excessive fiscal and monetary policies will trigger a collapse in the bond market. He explains that if bond yields rise above 6%, it will severely impact the housing market, credit conditions, and equity valuations.

Midcycle Optimism Driven by Fed Liquidity and Foreign Investment

"I am broadly optimistic about the economy. I think we're in midcycle. I do not think we're in late cycle. The liquidity indicators – the M2, GDP ratio – are on fire. When you look at the macro, it's popular for a lot of commentators to say that the sky is always falling, but if you look at the big numbers, right now we're actually in a pretty good spot near-term. One of the biggest stories is that the Fed is no longer afraid of inflation; they've just ended QT, which means a burst of relative liquidity coming into the market. Add to that massive foreign investment and explosive growth in AI capabilities, and you have a recipe for near-term growth despite long-term fiscal concerns."

Peter expresses a broadly optimistic view of the near-term economy despite acknowledging long-term fiscal challenges. He emphasizes that liquidity is booming as QT ends and major foreign investments are on the horizon, alongside rapid advances in AI, positioning the economy favorably in the midcycle phase.

Apple's 20% Endogenous Return Driven by Passive Flows

"what it says right now is that a stock like Apple appears to have about a 20% endogenous return associated with the flow of assets from passive and that's accelerating because of Apple's weight in the index."

Mike Green highlights that Apple's passive flows are contributing significantly to its returns, estimating a 20% endogenous boost driven by its index weight. He argues that this passive factor is altering market dynamics by continuously pushing capital into stocks like Apple, thereby reinforcing their upward momentum over the long term.

Trade Call: Sell NVDA to Mitigate Risk Amid Volatility

+2.12%current return

"A third way to manage risk is just to change what's in your portfolio. Sell your Nvidia and buy Proctor Gamble. That's going to mitigate risk."

The speaker outlines an actionable trade call by recommending selling Nvidia to reduce exposure amid a volatile market environment and shifting into more defensive names like Proctor & Gamble as part of a broader risk management strategy.

Buy Call on Golden Cross Resources

"First is Golden Cross Resources. This is also a new name, by the way. An Australian gold producer with a team that's generated big gains in the past. They're drilling a project right next door to Southern Cross, which is like a billion and a half now market cap. Assays are pending. It's an overweight position for me. In this particular case, this company has similar geological signatures as Southern Cross that made the big discovery, and they've identified more geological targets than Southern Cross."

Jeff Clark highlights Golden Cross Resources as a promising discovery play in the precious metals space, emphasizing its strategic drilling location near a major producer and favorable geological signatures, which supports his overweight position on the stock.

New GMOD ETF Launch Offers Dynamic Multi-Asset Exposure

"Yeah, I'm excited about the ETF that we just launched last month, which is called the GMO dynamic allocation fund. So it's launched on the New York Stock Exchange ticker GMOD. Uh and that strategy we set up as a multi-asset ETF of ETFs. You know what struck me as we were thinking about this idea was people came to us and said hey GMO have you thought about putting out model portfolio allocations? Go out and say, 'Hey people, I think you should have this much in fund A and that much in ETF B, etc.' And I don't know if this is right, but I think there were something like 6,000 of those different opportunities out there."

John Thorndike expresses his excitement about GMO's newly launched dynamic allocation ETF (ticker GMOD). He explains that the fund is structured as a multi-asset ETF of ETFs which enables dynamic reallocation without tax consequences. This innovative approach is positioned as a way to offer model portfolio allocations, aiming to capture diversified, cross-border exposures while maintaining efficient risk management.

Bullish Commentary on Midstream and Data Center Enablers via Bloom Energy

"Yeah, I'm still very bullish on the prospects for, you know, midstream operators. Anybody who is enabling the data center constructions to go faster. You saw, you know, Bloom Energy stock just skyrocket because its solution seems to be validated. Not a recommendation to get long a stock that's already had an icorous print like this, but that's just an example of things you should be looking for. Beyond energy, but to the derivatives of energy, anything that China supplies to the US military industrial complex today is going to see a wave of investment."

Duneberg highlights opportunities in the midstream and energy derivative space, using Bloom Energy as an example. He notes that Bloom Energy's solution has been validated with its recent stock surge, which serves as a signal for investors to watch similar companies enabling faster data center construction and benefiting from broader energy trends.

Technical Correction as a Buying Opportunity in Nvidia

">> Yeah. No, it's very possible. I mean, you know, here's the April low, right? But Nvidia had broken the 50-day moving average back in early January, traded below it through April and then finally bottomed and took off. So yeah, you could definitely spend a little bit of time here somewhere between this 150-160 level and kind of working off some of this overbought condition because, again, this is a daily chart. On the weekly chart, despite a monster run from a very low level to around 160, a correction back to roughly 150 could still leave the stock in a very bullish trend."

The speaker provides company-specific technical commentary on Nvidia (ticker NVDA), indicating that after a strong run-up the stock broke below its 50-day moving average and then recovered. He interprets a potential correction to the 150 level as a healthy pullback, suggesting it may be a tactical buying opportunity while the longer-term trend remains bullish.

Initiating and Averaging into Meta

-0.26%current return

">> yeah we did we we've started building a position in meta now. >> Okay. And we'll get to that in a sec. ... Later, when discussing allocation, he adds, "we're starting to build a position in Meta very slowly. That'll eventually be 5% of the portfolio, but it's going to take time to get there. It's working through a corrective process, which is good. We want that because it allows us to buy, you know, as it comes down, we can keep averaging into that price at a little bit lower level, lowering our cost basis.""

The speaker explicitly outlines a trade call for Meta (ticker META), noting that his team has begun gradually building a position. He emphasizes averaging into dips during a corrective process, with a target eventual allocation of about 5% of the portfolio. The rationale hinges on Meta's strong revenue growth fundamentals and its inherent benefit from passive indexing effects.

Continued Confidence in Intel as a National Champion

"I do own Intel. I continue to own Intel. I think Trump is going to do what he can to support Intel."

The speaker reiterates his long-term conviction in Intel, stating that government support under Trump reinforces Intel's role as a national champion in chip manufacturing.

Nvidia Breakout Confirmation Trade Call

-8.20%current return

"if you see price clear level like Nvidia just this week cleared final resistance just a minor level. It was right around 196, but still a bullish development. If it can hold up here for a few days, that does confirm a breakout. And as much as it's difficult to add exposure into strong up moves, it is often the right thing to do when you have these breakouts as catalysts because what the breakouts do, they remove the resistance from the chart, meaning that the sellers that were there, they're not there anymore for whatever reason and it tends to be a positive development."

Katie Stockton highlights Nvidia's recent technical breakout as the stock cleared a resistance level around $196. She emphasizes that if the breakout holds for a few days, it confirms bullish momentum and serves as an actionable signal for adding exposure.

Historical Commentary on Microsoft During the Tech Bubble

"But that was the internet wave that engulfed everything. And so you had companies back then with real earnings, real balance sheets, real business models that are still around today like Microsoft, by the way, at the bubble peak in March of 2000. The biggest stock was not Lucent and it wasn't Pets.com. It was Microsoft and it wasn't no trillion dollar stock. It was over $400 billion."

The speaker recalls how Microsoft, as a fundamentally strong company, stood out during the tech bubble peak of 2000, highlighting its valuation and enduring business model despite the frenzy of overvaluation.

Trade Call: Adding META on a Buy Signal

-16.03%current return

"We did all these trades Monday or Tuesday. We added a 2-3% to both our equity and sector models. We brought some positions up to where we wanted to. We added to Meta. We've been wanting to do that for a while and it sold off. It came on a nice buy signal so we added to it. We added to Kinder Morgan, that's our pipeline. JP Morgan got beat up on earnings and we took advantage of that. And I believe we added a little bit to Amazon as well."

Michael Lebowitz describes a tactical rebalancing in which his team increased their exposure to stocks after a sell-off. He specifically mentions adding to Meta on the strength of a buy signal after the stock sold off, indicating a confident, trend-following approach in the near term.

Nvidia Bubble Warning

-3.32%current return

"You know, if you look at Nvidia, it's a market cap approaching four trillion and it's literally the same size as the whole Japanese stock market. Nvidia is like Cisco was to the telecom companies. And so if you think Nvidia is going to stay a 4 trillion market cap company in a notoriously cyclical sector, I got news for you. It's going to do what all classic bubbles do. It'll go down 80 to 90% when it's all said and done."

Ed Dow warns investors about Nvidia, drawing a parallel with Cisco during past telecom bubbles. He suggests that the current market-cap valuation of Nvidia is unsustainable and predicts a potential drawdown of 80-90%, implying that holding or buying Nvidia at these levels represents significant downside risk.

LAR Price Cuts Signal Shifts in Housing Market Dynamics

"Home builders have cut prices significantly. LAR, the second largest home builder in America, has cut their average selling price by about 24% over the last three years, LAR's average selling price net of incentives was 383,000. That's the lowest it's been at least going back to 2018. Some element of that is price cuts. Some element of that's the mortgage rate buy downs and closing costs. And look at this: LAR was selling at 491,000 in August 2022 and is now selling at 383,000. Lenar's order book is actually two times bigger today than it was in 2019."

Nick Gerli highlights that LAR, a major home builder, has aggressively cut prices (24% off over three years) while seeing its order book double compared to 2019. He uses this data to illustrate that the housing market is undergoing deflationary pressure, where new home prices are now lower than resale prices. This commentary underlines the importance for investors to monitor micro market trends and inventory dynamics within the housing sector.

Cautionary Commentary on AMD's Open AI Exposure

"Yeah, well, AMD just had to deal with open AI. >> Yeah, >> that's a whole different discussion. I probably should have included a graphic that's been floating around showing the relationship Open AI has with Nvidia, with AMD, with uh uh Coreave and many other companies. And this money is just circulating back and forth. And it's healthy in one respect because everyone is helping fund each other meet these goals, but it also creates an Achilles uh heel in, in, you know, a potential big problem. If one of those bigger companies fails, what does that mean for all the other companies? What if Open AI can't be competitive? What if they just can't produce revenue? So, so it's potentially a problem in AI, but for now it's like AMD is what up 30 almost 40%."

Michael discusses the interconnected exposure between technology players, noting that while AMD has rallied 30-40% following its Open AI developments, the revolving fund structure among companies like Nvidia, AMD, and others could create vulnerabilities. He warns that if Open AI fails to generate competitive revenue, the ripple effects could impact these larger companies.

Bullish View on Precious Metals via Agnico Eagle

"Agniko Eagle has been really a major holding now for a number of years just simply because of the quality of the management, the quality of the assets, the political stability in terms of where theya0are located. And ita0a0it's quite interesting if you actually look at a company like Agnico Eagle and you look at the free cash flow yield, currently, even though the price of the stock has gone a0tripled over the last couple of years, it's still trading the free cash flow yield at a higher rate than it was three or four years ago. And if you factor in maybe a $4,500 gold, $50 silver scenario over the next year if you are bullish on the metals, you can really justify like a 9 to 10% free cash flow yield in some of these stocks. What it's telling you is that they're incredibly profitable; with the increase in gold going up a couple thousand dollars, thata0all flows to the bottom line for these well-run companies."

The speaker highlights Agnico Eagle as a key holding due to its strong management, asset quality, and robust free cash flow yield, which remains attractive even after significant price appreciation. He explains that if gold prices continue rising (potentially reaching $4,500) and silver holds near $50, the free cash flow yield available in these stocks can justify a 9-10% yield, reinforcing the companies' profitability. This commentary supports a bullish stance on precious metals mining companies, particularly as a hedge against fiat currency pressure.

Profit Taking in the Silver Rally Using SLV

"If you find that you're feeling overly greedy as the daily moves in silver continue, consider taking profits by selling incremental portions -- say 10% at a time -- once the rally pushes prices significantly above key moving averages. Its a pragmatic move when your technical dashboards show that the silver rally, as represented by SLV, is stretched."

Mike Preston of New Harbor Financial recommends an actionable trade strategy in the precious metals area. He suggests that investors in silver, particularly those holding SLV, should consider incremental profit taking if technical indicators (such as breakouts above key moving averages) show the rally is becoming overextended. This action is intended to lock in gains during the current bull run while reducing exposure as the move nears exhaustion.

Buy Yen ETF (FXY) Amid Weak Dollar

-6.06%current return

"…that if you're looking for a place to go to make money and also be in one of the few areas that probably would go up in an intense riskoff period, I think that's the yen. You can buy the FXY."

The speaker highlights deteriorating fundamentals in the US dollar relative to other currencies and recommends buying the yen through the FXY ETF as a hedge and opportunity to profit from a potential devaluation.

Bullish Trade Call: Prospector Metals

-15.02%current return

"An exploration company that I like a lot is Prospector Metals. It is a drill hole play. It is the riskier of the riskiest sector, but I like what they're turning up in a target in the Yukon and they should have drill results out within days or a couple of weeks."

Brian London highlights Prospector Metals as a speculative but potentially high-reward exploration play. Despite the inherent risks of drill hole opportunities, he is bullish due to near-term catalysts such as imminent drill results in the Yukon which could trigger a significant re-rating if the findings are positive.