Macro Scenarios: Venezuela's Uncertain Political Transition and US Influence

12 days ago

Mario Baraga

"Well, I think we covered a lot of ground here. Just in terms of the scenarios that we have outlined five scenarios for how we see the situation likely evolving. And one is in which the new president cooperates with the US and remains in power. Again we are talking about three to six months. There is a scenario in which she defies Washington, then the US resumes the military campaign and then this is a very uncertain scenario because you don't know if the regime stands. There is one that the hardliners house to the president consolidate power and then there is kind of this tension with the US. The fourth scenario is basically the regime collapsing rather than a regime change; the regime collapsing. You have infighting, you have different groups controlling parts of the military and paramilitary apparatus and then this just evolves to an internal armed conflict and basically chaos."

Mario outlines multiple scenarios for Venezuela's political future following Maduro's removal. He identifies a scenario with cooperation with the US over the next three to six months, one where defiance triggers renewed military intervention, and another in which internal collapse leads to chaos. The commentary frames the uncertainty and risks associated with US influence in the region, highlighting complex implications for political stability and, by extension, economic and oil market conditions.