Market Decline Forecast Driven by Liquidity Cycle

12 days ago

Adam Taggart

"What what I'm really saying is that the odds of the S&P being at current levels by the year end I think are low. Uh in other words, I think that it's going to be I think the market's going to be lower by the year end. My view is that the assets that are very much out of favor now are the ones that are going to come back into favor like government bonds and maybe the US dollar. That's very much a contrarian view, but that would be pretty consistent with what we're seeing in terms of the late cycle flavor of what we're detecting here in terms of the data."

The speaker forecasts a market decline by the year end driven by a downturn in the liquidity cycle. He highlights that assets currently out of favor, such as government bonds and the US dollar, may rebound as liquidity shifts from financial markets to the real economy. This macro insight emphasizes the divergence between a strong real economy and weakening financial markets.

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