Stay Long on Bitcoin Amid Institutional Support
"Bitcoin, if you've been watching, has been on a tear. It’s been on a tear ever since the recent government shutdown added to the uncertainty, pushing its price past the key psychological level of $125,000. JP Morgan even released a report suggesting that the real price should be around $160,000. The message is clear: stop shorting the asset that is driving market momentum. Now is not the time to bet against Bitcoin, as institutional interest and macro uncertainties continue to support its rise."
The discussion underscores Bitcoin's strong performance, noting its breakthrough above $125,000 and a fundamental valuation argument from JP Morgan. The speakers advise investors to avoid shorting Bitcoin, given the robust institutional backing and supportive macroeconomic factors that suggest further upward momentum.
Perpetual Bitcoin Futures: A Risky Derivative Playground
"So, for all of the talk that we hear about Bitcoin becoming the next gold or the next building block of the global economy, what we have not heard much about is the method by which this cryptocurrency is traded for the most part. ... In no uncertain terms, this is a casino."
The segment explains the explosive growth of perpetual futures in Bitcoin trading, which now accounts for roughly 70% of Bitcoin trading volume. It emphasizes the unregulated, highly leveraged nature of these derivatives, comparing them to a casino and raising significant concerns about the inherent risks for crypto investors.
Diversified Systematic Portfolio Positioning
"I'm currently long equities, long FX, long bonds. So quite a little bit short energy. ... and it looks like I'm short Bitcoin."
The speaker outlines his current systematic portfolio allocation, showing long positions in equities, FX, and bonds (mentioning instruments like Italian BTPs, US 30-year bonds, and Canadian tenure) while maintaining short positions in energy and Bitcoin. This diversified exposure reflects a risk-managed approach based on his trend-following strategy.
Bitcoin Entry at $104,977 with Upside to $125,000 in 2 Months
"A good entry price I like would be $104,977. Given maybe two months, we should be back in that $120,000, $125,000 range and surpassing that all-time high."
The speaker advocates for an actionable trade on Bitcoin, suggesting an entry at about $104,977 with an expectation to rebound to a range of $120,000-$125,000 within two months, dismissing concerns of a drop to around $82,000.
Bitcoin Entry Point with Upside Target
"I like a good entry price would be 104,977. Give it maybe two months. We should be back in that 120,000, 125,000 range."
The speaker calls for entering Bitcoin at an entry price near 104,977, anticipating a rebound to a target range between 120,000 and 125,000 over a two-month horizon, making it an actionable crypto trade.