Bitcoin's Binary Outcome: Cautious Long-Term Potential

17 days ago

Dan

"I'm thinking 15% plus returns. I own Bitcoin. I own some Solana, I own a few other cryptoassets as well. But in a very small amount, my safety score is a three. The role of institutional money has increased, but guys, to a large extent, this isn't institutions that are filling their bags up with Bitcoin. These are institutions that are selling Bitcoin-backed financial instruments, largely to retail investors at this point. This is still a story. Until the story becomes one of financial function and disrupting other intermediaries and financial tools, we're riding the wave of the story of the future."

The speaker offers a nuanced view on Bitcoin, forecasting a potential 15%+ return over a five-year horizon while cautioning about significant risks. Despite owning Bitcoin and other cryptoassets, the speaker notes a low safety score and highlights that institutional involvement is largely through selling Bitcoin derivatives. The commentary underscores Bitcoin's binary outcomes and the uncertainty around its evolution into a true financial utility.

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