Apple's Modest YTD Performance Affecting Portfolio
"Why? I know why. It's because of Apple. Apple year to date. By the way, we can look at this. Apple year to date. It's up 4% 3.66%. What's the S&P up? Let's just track it against the S&P. The S&P year to date up 14%. If 50% of my portfolio is in Apple and I'm coming close year to date to the S&P, I'm not beating it. That means the rest of my portfolio, which is heavy in alpha picks, is really outpacing the S&P."
The speaker points out that Apple's modest year-to-date gains, when weighed heavily in a portfolio, may be limiting overall outperformance relative to the broader market index.
Apple Stock Rated as Hold Due to Overvaluation and Headwinds
"So, I looked at the valuation and looked at the risks and said that it didn't look like a good situation for Apple. And revisiting that situation right now, I don't see very much difference. Apple has improved its customer value proposition with the latest lineup of iPhones giving consumers a bigger reason to upgrade and switch in their older iPhones. But the headwinds have gotten much worse with the increased geopolitical tension and the valuation is also still stretched because it's trading at a 52-week high. It's trading at $263 a share right now and the 52-week high is $264. The intrinsic value I calculate is $215. So, even applying a margin of safety to the current market price compared to the intrinsic value, the stock looks slightly overvalued. And with all these additional risks, I don't see a reason to buy Apple stock right now. So, I would say no. This doesn't look like a buy. I have Apple stock rated as a hold."
The speaker assesses that despite recent positive news on iPhone sales, Apple stock remains overvalued due to its near all-time high price, significant headwinds like geopolitical tensions, and supply chain risks. With an intrinsic value estimate of $215 versus a trading price of $263, the speaker concludes that there is no compelling reason to buy Apple stock right now and thus rates it as a hold.
Apple (AAPL) Record High and Rating Upgrade
"A stellar day that we're seeing right now for shares of Apple. That's ticker AAPL. As you mentioned, it is hitting a record high here. This is the first record high that we're seeing of 2025. And this is after the company said uh essentially there was some data that came out that showed that iPhone 17, the series uh for that uh iPhone outsold the iPhone 16 by 14% over the first 10 days if you were to look at it respectively here. And that's for sales in the US and China. So, of course, you just are seeing them kind of knocking it out the park, hitting a record high here. Uh but I mean of course if you look at shares year to date um well they're up about 5% now that's different than what it looked like earlier that we're seeing a pop into the green clearly. Uh but I mean we also did see Loop Capital upgrading the stock to buy from hold. Lots of optimism right now in the market for this company."
The speaker highlights Apple (AAPL) reaching its first record high of 2025, attributing the performance to strong sales of the new iPhone 17, which outperformed its predecessor by 14% in key markets. Additionally, Loop Capital has upgraded its rating from hold to buy, adding to the bullish sentiment.
Apple Records First Record of 2025 on Positive iPhone Demand
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The speaker highlights Apple as a standout performer, noting its near 4% gain and record achievement in 2025. The commentary is supported by Loop Capital's upgrade and positive demand for the iPhone 17 series.
Caution on Buying Apple at All-Time Highs
"Hell no. I'm not buying at an all-time high."
The speaker discusses his strategy regarding his Apple position. He explains that despite having a large stake, he is not inclined to buy additional shares at 263, an all-time high, and prefers waiting for a pullback to around 260 to ensure a better risk-reward entry.
Apple Stock Record Catalyzes Bullish Outlook
"Apple. I mean, we cannot get through this conversation without talking about Apple. Massive day for them. Of course, hitting their first record of 2025. And this is after a lot of the optimism that we saw for AI demand coming from the US and China. this in particular from the iPhone 17 series, which is the most recent series that we saw drop. And this is a 14% uptick in sales and what we saw from the pre previous lineup, which was the iPhone 16. I'm losing count as I speak. Um 16 17. Yeah, we're on 17 now. But that's really what we're seeing pushing this stock higher. And of course, we know that this is a stock that has barely gained what, maybe 5% year to date. It's up 4.7% so far this year. So, this is some fantastic news for the company. You were definitely seeing Wall Street investors celebrating today."
Norinda highlights Apple’s record-breaking day, driven by a 14% uptick in iPhone 17 sales and strong optimism around AI demand in both the US and China. She notes that despite modest year-to-date gains, the company’s performance is generating significant investor enthusiasm.
Buffett7s Apple Investment as an Exemplary Trade
"I think that Apple is the greatest trade ever because Buffett put so much absolute, so much capital to work in absolute terms. And the downside was minimal while the upside was extraordinary."
The speaker highlights Buffett7s Apple investment as a pinnacle example of executing a high-conviction, low-downside trade that delivered exceptional returns. This commentary underscores the importance of capitalizing on brands with strong consumer presence and minimal risk.
Apple's Strong Momentum and Raised Price Targets
"I had to talk about Apple 11 because this one at its highs today up about 11 percent, finishing the day with a gain of about six and one third, one percentage point, 6.3 percent. It's a top gainer in both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100, I believe hitting an all-time high today. Analysts have been weighing in on this one in a big way, raising their price targets, creating new street highs one after another. I mean, on Friday, Piper Sandler raised its price target to 740 from 500. On Friday, also UBS raising its targets to a street-high view of 810 from 540. Stock closing at 712 and change. Today, Morgan Stanley raised the target on it to 750 from 480. A little catch-up there, maintaining its overweight rating. Basically what analysts are saying, they're talking about momentum in gaming, staggering profit margins, phenomenal growth. That stock has more than doubled this year."
The segment highlights robust momentum in Apple (assumed ticker AAPL), marked by significant gains and a series of raised price targets from top-tier analysts. The commentary emphasizes the company’s leadership in mobile app marketing and gaming, as well as its impressive year-to-date performance.
Apple Tests ChatGPT-Like App to Overhaul Siri
"Apple has developed a chat GPT-like iPhone app to help test and prepare for a long-anticipated overhaul of Siri. The company's AI division is using the app to evaluate new features for Siri. Apple's voice-powered assistant, of course, that includes testing the ability to search through personal data, such as songs and email, and perform in-app actions."
Apple is internally testing a new ChatGPT-inspired app that aims to enhance Siri by incorporating generative AI features. While the app is currently only accessible to Apple employees, the initiative signals potential improvements in Apple7s voice assistant capabilities, setting the stage for a significant product update.
Cautious Optimism for Apple Amidst Innovation Challenges
"Apple is on the rise; after strong reviews for the new iPhone, its stock has improved. But there are challenges with software integration and establishing a breakthrough in AI which might slow down the momentum."
The discussion around Apple (AAPL) reflects a balance of optimism and caution. While the recent iPhone release has pushed Apple stock upward and boosted investor sentiment due to strong sales and the upcoming holiday season, there remains concern over its pace of innovation and software upgrades necessary to fully leverage AI capabilities.