Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.

Avoid holding ENB due to high debt risk

"I would have thought here that they would work on lowering the debt a little bit so all that growth is based on a 50% increase of debt and that is again issue I never liked that much that if there is growth but with that it means there is no growth. It"s like the US government they all say economy is growing at 2%. Wow. Wow. But with 7% deficits your economy is declining at 2% per year. No matter what everybody tells you, if I see here 50% growth in debt and I don"t see that reflected in higher than 50% dividend growth, then the story doesn"t add up, which means the risks go higher. I hope nothing bad happens, but I wouldn"t hold this."

The speaker expresses caution regarding Enbridge (ENB) due to its high debt levels. He argues that if the increase in debt is not matched by appropriate dividend growth, the stock becomes too risky, and he advises investors to avoid holding the stock.

Tesla Valuation Raises Red Flags

"I mean, if you research this, then you can say, okay, it s impossible to research. And now look at the price is just going up. It s crazy. Tesla has a market cap of 1.4 trillion. The total cumulative profits in the last 15 years was 25 billion. This is all the money Tesla made. So yes, it doesn t make sense to make any research."

The speaker criticizes Tesla s valuation by juxtaposing its enormous market cap with comparatively meager cumulative profits, implying that the price action is detached from fundamental realities. This company-specific commentary suggests skepticism toward Tesla s current trading levels.

Trade Call on Stellantis as a Cyclical Opportunity

+0.65%current return

"I think we are cheap enough. So you can buy now and then you buy again if it goes down 30 40% you sell regain your position back then when it comes back because it should be cyclical. It has a lot of cash. It will survive."

The speaker presents an actionable trade call on Stellantis, suggesting investors initiate a position due to the stock appearing undervalued amid cyclical lows. Although acknowledging the inherent risks of a down cycle and negative cash flows, the speaker believes that a rebound in cyclical momentum can yield substantial returns, potentially as high as 50%. Their strategy involves buying now, selling on a major dip, and re-establishing the position, contingent on cyclical improvement.

HPQ Watch List: Eye on a Potential Small Position

"s say, impact its margins and inventory and everything. There is that and that is therefore the key risk. So not crazy exposure but interesting exposure could be something to watch. We have put it here on the quadrant and will watch it over time and you never know when the opportunity knocks. Of course everybody would love 20% growth stable but at the end it"

The speaker highlights HPQ's strong free cash flow yield and steady fundamentals as a reason to keep the stock on the watch list. Although acknowledging downside risks such as potential recession impacts on margins and inventory, the speaker suggests that investors consider starting a small position and doubling down when a clearer opportunity arises. The overall tone is cautiously optimistic given the company's long-term structural trends.

Google Stock Appears Risky in Diversified Portfolios

"Google now is a little bit risky. I hope it was bought earlier but the rest is perhaps even more on the aggressive side."

The speaker offers a cautionary note on Google within highly diversified portfolios, suggesting that if investors purchased Google at a lower valuation, it might now be too risky given its aggressive positioning relative to other holdings.

Oracle Shows Robust Cloud Outlook amid Bubble Concerns

"Oracle is giving its strong cloud infrastructure outlook from a dozen billion they will make 150. Wow. So huge growth. Just the bookings on their cloud deals plus 300 billion because OpenAI said we'll spend 300 billion with you. They made 12 billion this year. So huge projections."

The speaker highlights Oracle's bullish cloud business with impressive revenue projections and growth catalysts, though it is mentioned within the broader context of a potential bubble. The emphasis is on Oracle's strong cloud bookings and the massive spending commitment by OpenAI, suggesting robust near-term growth despite overall market exuberance.

Equinor as a Steady Dividend Play

"However, we have also discussed fundamental businesses in the quadrant video. Equinor 8.6% dividend pretty stable low costs. So that's also something you can rely on 8% every year."

The speaker highlights Equinor as a defensive, fundamental business offering an attractive dividend yield of 8.6% along with stable low costs, suggesting it as a reliable long-term investment option that provides about 8% annual yield.

Hedge S&P 500 Exposure with Protective Puts

-4.34%current return

"if you must stick to the S&P 500, you can use 5% of your wealth to buy a put. So you limit your downside to 5% and you stick to the upside of 30%. That's a positive risk and reward scenario with certainty. Just look at the puts here. You can just protect yourself for 14 months. This is December 2026 with a total put and forget about it."

The speaker advocates for hedging S&P 500 exposure by allocating 5% of one's portfolio to protective put options, which limit the downside to 5% while preserving a potential 30% upside. The strategy is presented as a defensive, risk-managed tactic that ensures certainty in long-term compounding.

Conditional Buy Opportunity on Vail Resorts for Attractive Dividend Yield

+2.76%current return

"Good day fellow investors. A stock that has done terribly over the last few years is Veil Resorts. The ski resort stocks. Let's look at the business, the financial, the value, the quadrant, and whether it fits maybe your portfolio. So for 141 for the stock price just on that expecting the dividend to grow a little bit over time to be at a yield of 5% over time and perhaps there will be two good years of snow and skiing and it will be trendy again and then you can also maybe get capital gain but we are close to a 9% likely return from the stock if we are more exuberant and they managed to grow the dividend 5% over the years. For my personal portfolio I would need it to be another 30 40% down to consider and diversified. If it goes down 20%, I might consider it good yield, good business over time."

The speaker discusses Vail Resorts, noting the company has faced challenges over recent years but offers an attractive dividend yield of around 5%. He calculates a fair value near $141 based on dividend growth assumptions and a potential total return close to 9% if conditions, including improved snowfall and dividend growth, materialize. However, he remains cautious and indicates he would only consider buying if the stock drops around 20%.