Joseph Carlson After Hours

Netflix remains unbeatable in long-form streaming

"As one analyst said in a Netflix note, "Congratulations on your engagement because their engagement with the biggest movie they've ever had over this last quarter, which got 500 million views, was a true testament to their prowess in long-form streaming. Despite other challenges, Netflix has cracked the code on pricing, boasts an enormous programming budget, and has a strong global presence with international production and a growing ad revenue business. Put all that together and they're going to remain the king. They will remain the king."

The speaker relays Tom Rogers' strong endorsement of Netflix, emphasizing its dominant position in long-form streaming through robust pricing, production capabilities, and a growing global audience. This commentary reinforces Netflix's enduring leadership despite market challenges.

Equifax earnings strong despite negative CEO comment

"Now, moving on, we get to Equifax reporting their earnings this morning. The stock was down 4% because of some commentary of the CEO, despite the fact that they beat their estimates and raised guidance. I see the fundamentals moving in the right direction and will continue to hold for now. This is an example where a single statement can cause a temporary drop, but the underlying business remains fundamentally strong."

The speaker discusses Equifax (EFX), noting that despite a negative CEO comment that caused a temporary drop, the company beat estimates and raised guidance. Strong underlying fundamentals justify a hold position, despite current market sentiment.

Salesforce rebounds with strong fundamentals despite trust issues

"Salesforce stock is going up. When I look at Salesforce, we can look at it in my portfolio. It's now down $1,800, down 3%. At one point I was down around $10,000 in Salesforce, but we're almost moving back up into the green. They laid out a very bold vision at Dreamforce and provided guidance that is very positive, suggesting that the fundamentals are moving upwards."

The speaker notes a recent rebound in Salesforce (CRM), citing strong earnings guidance and a bold vision from their Dreamforce conference, despite lingering trust issues and past underperformance. The turnaround in portfolio performance is emphasized as a positive signal.

AWS outage undermines Amazon's reliability

"The day Amazon broke the internet for millions of Americans. A glitch with an obscure Amazon database disrupted core internet services causing Alexa devices and financial trades to malfunction. The faulty update sent the well-oiled machine careening towards a crash, resulting in prolonged outages across critical services, including my own website Qualrum. This massive failure not only inflicted immediate reputational damage on AWS but is also likely to push companies towards a multicloud strategy, further hurting Amazon's market dominance."

The speaker highlights an AWS outage that caused widespread disruptions and reputational damage for Amazon (AMZN), suggesting that this failure may lead customers to adopt multicloud strategies, negatively impacting Amazon in the long run.

Google high conviction buy despite OpenAI browser threat

+3.28%current return

"I consider these minor details in the long grand scheme of things. For example, we know that OpenAI and other competitors will be coming after Google. But I believe in this case that Googlea0is actually far better positioned. If this causes a meaningful sell-off, if it goes down 10 plus percent, I'll certainly be buying more Google as a result. I have right now around $150,000 worth of Google stock, $51,000 in the green, making up 11.1% of my total portfolio."

The speaker expresses high conviction in Google (GOOGL), dismissing the competitive threat of OpenAI's new browser and indicating that any significant sell-off (over 10% drop) will be taken as a buying opportunity. His sizeable investment and confidence in Google are emphasized.

Company Commentary on Salesforce

"Now, another company that I'm focused on, but I haven't bought today, is Salesforce. Salesforce just had their Dreamforce convention where they outlined aggressive plans to reacelerate organic growth back to over 10%. They also showcased a slide indicating operating margins could double from 17% to 34% and free cash flow could jump from $4 billion to $14 billion by 2025, with 99% returned to shareholders via buybacks or dividends. Even though this has been my worst performer, I'm still going to hold it because I believe there is far more upside than downside in this company, and I could see it easily moving into the $330 range."

The host provides a detailed commentary on Salesforce, noting its impressive forward-looking metrics such as margin expansion and free cash flow growth. Despite underperformance, he remains committed by holding the stock, anticipating that upcoming growth catalysts could drive the share price into the higher range.

Buy Call on Amazon (AMZN)

+5.27%current return

"The second one that I bought today was Amazon. I increased my position by another $3,000 in this company. I bought it not near an all-time high. Amazon's going through a little bit of a dip, but I believe there's going to be a lot of bullish catalysts over the next 3 years with Amazon. AWS continues to predictably grow its profit engine and Amazon still maintains its dominant lead in US e-commerce. There are also exciting initiatives in logistics, robotics, and automation that will further propel the company."

The host adds to his Amazon position with an additional $3,000 purchase, viewing the recent dip as a buying opportunity. He underlines Amazon's strengths in AWS, its leading position in e-commerce, and future growth catalysts in logistics and automation, making it a compelling long-term hold.

Buy Call on Google (GOOGL)

+2.66%current return

"Now, I just spent $8,000 this morning. $5,000 buying one company, $3,000 buying another company. And the two companies that I bought were Google and Amazon. I like Google so much that I have it in both portfolios and I've been buying this company like crazy over the past year. I have another $91,000 position in Google with $25,000 of it being gains. Google has been both a huge position and a big gainer. I've made more gains in Google than I think any other company except for Netflix and I believe that this is going to continue."

The host explicitly reveals his purchase of Google, highlighting his growing exposure by including the stock in multiple portfolios. He emphasizes its strong performance, significant gains, and a series of bullish catalysts, suggesting that despite trading at all-time highs, Google presents a low downside risk with predictable returns.

Caution on Palantirs Extreme Valuation

"But Ive noticed that every time tech investors want to say that were not in a bubble, they use Nvidia as the go-to example. For whatever reason, they not using the example of Palenter. Isnt Palenter the Messi of AI, the leader of AI, the company thats emblematic of the AI tech sector? Palenter trades at valuations that would make bubble companies blush. It trades at a 540 trailing PE, a price to sales of above 100, now at 117. This is in a category that has never happened in history."

The speaker raises concerns over Palantir (referred to as Palenter) by contrasting its extreme valuation metrics against typical defensive tech valuations, such as Nvidias. Despite its leadership position in AI, the extraordinarily high trailing PE and price-to-sales ratios create a case for caution.

Salesforce Partnership Backfires

"Now, moving on, we get to the news. And this is somewhat comical, Id say disappointing, but also comical news about Salesforce. This stock is so hated by the market. As noted by this latest news, Salesforce is expanding its AI partnership with OpenAI and Anthropic, integrating their latest models into Agent Force 360, including deeper ChatGPT and cloud integrations to accelerate AI agent adoption. In this case, after Salesforce announced this partnership with OpenAI, the stock went down. How does a stock go down after you partner with OpenAI? Thats almost impossible. I should be giving them an award for accomplishing the impossible. This should be considered one of the fail of the weeks."

The speaker highlights an anomaly with Salesforce, noting that despite expanding its AI partnerships—a typically positive catalyst—the stock dropped. He underscores that the market sentiment toward Salesforce is extremely negative, describing the move as a "fail of the week."

Amazon Disrupts Pharmacy With Prescription Drug Kiosks

"Amazon is launching a prescription drug kiosk at some one medical offices in Los Angeles. The company announced Wednesday in a move that could disrupt brickand-mortar pharmacy businesses. The kiosks are operated by Amazon Pharmacy working similar to vending machines. They disperse prescriptions for patients within minutes of their doctor's visit. The company said, "Yeah, it looks like you literally go up and and swipe your card like an ATM and then it just dispenses your your drugs.""

The host discusses Amazon's entry into the pharmaceutical space by deploying prescription drug kiosks at medical offices. This innovative move is positioned as a potential disruptor to traditional brick-and-mortar pharmacies, reducing friction in prescription fulfillment and signaling possible long-term competitive pressure on established players in the sector.

Bullish Trade Call on Google with $300 Target

+5.77%current return

"I still believe that Google today represents one of the best risk adjusted companies in the market. And I'll repeat that until it stops being the case. But right now, I think Google could easily go up to $300 per share. This clear line of sight for another 10 to 20% gain in the short term makes it a compelling play."

The speaker puts forward a trade call on Google, emphasizing its strong risk-adjusted returns and predicting that the stock could reach $300 per share with an additional 10 to 20% upside in the short term. This recommendation is backed by his belief in Google's durable fundamentals and competitive moat.

Avoiding Oracle Due to Revenue Concentration Risk

"Then we have Oracle, which is a genuine hyperscaler cloud computing company. And there's a reason that I don't own Oracle. Keep in mind that Oracle's customer count is only 200,000 with about 80% of their revenue coming from OpenAI. That's promised revenue. It doesn't mean it will for sure happen. This dependency makes Oracle a higher risk compared to companies with a diversified customer base."

The speaker explains his decision to steer clear of Oracle, pointing out that its heavy reliance on OpenAI for 80% of its revenue introduces significant risk. In his view, the lack of customer diversification makes Oracle a less attractive and riskier investment relative to other hyperscalers.

AMD Partnership Strengthens Position Against Nvidia

"AMD's overall ecosystem is not quite as powerful as Nvidia's, but that misses the point. If they can offer great inference and great support at a reasonable price and diversify these different companies away from Nvidia, many of these companies are going to jump onto it. So AMD in this deal is accomplishing two things. Not only is Lisa Sue making it so that her company has tens of billions of dollars more revenue, not only is she partnering with one of the top companies in the world, which is OpenAI, but she's also establishing AMD as finally a viable alternative to Nvidia. So, this is a phenomenal deal for AMD. I think the stock deserves to be up 20 plus%."

The speaker highlights AMD's multi-year AI supply chip partnership with OpenAI as a catalyst that not only boosts revenue but also positions AMD as a solid alternative to Nvidia. He believes that this partnership is a transformative move for AMD and expects the stock to rally further.