Joseph Carlson After Hours
YouTube channel feed (https://www.youtube.com/feeds/videos.xml?channel_id=UCfCT7SSFEWyG4th9ZmaGYqQ)
Total Ideas
39
With Returns
15
Equal-Weighted Return
+2.93%
All Ideas (39)
39 TotalASML Trade Call with Doubled Price Target
"Now, I'll start off today with one of them, which is ASML. We're looking at ASML and it's up 5.66% today. ASML is a company that I've covered for over a year. I was pounding the table on below $700 per share and I still believe that ASML has upside because this company is an undisputed monopoly with no second or third place. One of the reasons for the surge is that Althia Capital upgraded ASML from a sell to a buy and lifted its price target to a street high 1500 per share from 750. They cited sharply higher earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 and strong EUV and DUV demand."
The speaker highlights ASML as an exceptional investment, emphasizing its unique monopoly in semiconductor equipment. He points out that an analyst upgrade from sell to buy came with a doubled price target from 750 to 1500, driven by higher earnings estimates and robust demand for its EUV and DUV products. This clear trade call backed by quantitative support makes ASML a strong long-term holding.
Caution on Palantir's Risky Valuation Heading into 2026
"Next up, we have Palantir, which obviously just looking at the numbers here by any relative scale, this thing is goated. Like it's been an insane year in 2025 for Palunteer. Now you can complain. You can say that it's not deserved or the stock is comically overvalued, but say whatever you want. The numbers are the numbers. First of all, the revenue is growing very fast, 47%. Like I said earlier, premium revenue growth equals premium multiples, premium valuation. Palenter investors are betting that this continues because if this reverts, if it slows down or decelerates, the multiple will come down dramatically. Now this again is very impressive how fast they've been able to grow. But I am concerned if the revenue does slow down because I think we'll see a big derating in this company if it does. So while this company has been goated, I feel like going into 2026, it's much higher risk than an ASML or Google. I think you're really playing a dangerous game investing in Palunteer in 2026 at these valuations."
The speaker reviews Palantir's explosive performance in 2025, noting its 148% gain and high revenue growth of 47%, while warning that a slowdown in growth could lead to a significant multiple compression. Despite the impressive numbers, he cautions investors that entering at such high valuations in 2026 is dangerous compared to more stable plays like ASML or Google.
Long-Term Bullish Trade Call on NFLX
"I just recently bought another $10,000 worth of the stock and I now have it as a $120,000 position. It's a massive position and I feel good having it there. I'm looking at the long term. I'm looking at the next 10 to 20 years. I want to own companies that I think will be very, very heavy companies. I see a day when Netflix is above a trillion dollar market cap. I really do. So, this is one that I like owning."
The host highlights his recent additional investment in Netflix, increasing his position to $120,000, and expresses strong long-term confidence in the stock with an expectation of a trillion-dollar market cap, emphasizing its robust fundamental growth and industry strength.
Bullish on Amazon Driven by AI-Enabled Margin Expansion
"Now, it's Amazon's turn. It's their turn in the MAX 7 in 2026. Amazon at around $232 has gained just 6% this year and trades for about 29 times projected 2026 earnings. We have here the Evercore ISI analyst, Mark Mahaney. One of my favorite analysts. I really like his thought process. He has a $335 price target on Amazon and calls it his number one large cap internet long. Right now it's trading at $220. So he believes it's a full $100 undervalued. My biggest distinction by far with what they outline here is I really think the robotics and automation and efficiency is the biggest story overall and having that enabled by AI I think is the big story here."
The host endorses Amazon as the top pick for 2026, emphasizing that despite concerns over heavy capital spending, its margin expansion driven by robotics, automation, and AI will unlock significant value. He highlights Evercore ISI's Mark Mahaney's bullish price target of $335, suggesting the stock is currently undervalued at $220.
Explicit Trade Call on Mastercard Amid Evolving Business Model
"Right now, it's at $526. I am buying Mastercard. I'm going to buy another $10,000 of it. In fact, I have money being transferred into the brokerage today. I'll probably execute the buy tomorrow and then I'm going to be transferring another $10,000 in, buying another $10,000 of this company. and I don't mind building this position bigger and bigger because right now I believe it's one of the best riskadjusted companies in the market."
The speaker explicitly calls for buying more Mastercard shares, citing the company's evolving business model, strong value added services, and attractive current valuation as key reasons, despite it being overlooked by the market.
Google Buy: Buffett's Final Stamp of Approval
"if you are in Google and I don't know why you would not be in Google today uh I don't know what your reasoning is. I can't I don't know what's going through your head like what what are you missing with Google? It's a low valuation, multiple huge catalysts. Uh they're they're at the forefront of like everything with AI. They're diversified. They have low downside. Like I don't know why you wouldn't be in Google today. I I don't know what that argument would be."
The speaker issues a bullish trade call on Google, emphasizing its low valuation, diversified business, strong AI positioning, and limited downside. The commentary suggests that not being invested in Google is a mistake and that the stock's long-term prospects, particularly over the next five years, make it a core holding.
Netflix Expands into Social Gaming
"Netflix is again one of my top positions in my portfolio. They have announced Party Games, a new feature where you play social games on your TV using your phone as a controller. This innovation is aimed at lowering churn and raising retention, further reinforcing Netflix's market leadership in streaming and content."
Netflix's move into social gaming is seen as a strategic effort to improve user retention and complement its strong streaming business.
Strong Fundamentals at Marcato Libre
"Another company that's shown up on my radar recently is Marcato Libre, ticker symbol Mi. I was pretty shocked by how good this stock is, delivering over 30% year-over-year revenue growth for 27 consecutive quarters as of Q3 of 2025. This phenomenal performance, along with an expanding user base and growing advertising revenue, makes it a company worth deeper research and consideration for long-term growth."
Marcato Libre is highlighted for its sustained explosive growth and impressive fundamentals, marking it as a compelling long-term opportunity.
Watch List Potential in DoorDash
"Next we get to a stock that has sold off recently: DoorDash. Year-to-date it's up 22%, but in the past month, it's down 25%. With strong revenue growth of 25% and a growing ad segment, DoorDash offers potential upside with a projected return above 10% even under conservative assumptions."
Commentary on DoorDash's recent volatility, noting its strong underlying revenue and ad growth that could provide attractive returns despite near-term sell-off.
Cautious Outlook on Duolingo
"Now, another stock that's been beaten down this year is Duolingo. This is a stock that seemingly nobody wants to own, down 42% year-to-date and 38% in the past year. While some believe it's a new category in core education, the story remains speculative as its fundamentals have yet to prove a durable moat."
Duolingo is seen as speculative amid a significant sell-off, with its fundamentals not yet clearly established to justify a strong long-term narrative.
Potential Rebound in Chipotle
"Now, another stock that's been beaten down this year is Chipotle. Chipotle has had its struggles, I'll admit, and it's down 50% this year. Unit volume is going down for multiple quarters, which has led to a dramatic shift in sentiment. However, these temporary issues might present a buying opportunity if the company can reverse its deceleration."
A commentary on Chipotle's steep sell-off and operational headwinds, suggesting that a reversal in declining unit volumes could offer a rebound opportunity.
Bearish Sentiment on Adobe
"At the very top of the list here, we have Adobe. This is a stock that investors simply want nothing to do with. Just look at some of the numbers of this company, and it shows how poor the sentiment is. First of all, Adobe continues to trade down. It's down 25% year-to-date and 34% over the past year, and 50% from its high over the past 5 years."
A critical commentary on Adobe highlighting its steep decline and bearish sentiment despite underlying revenue growth.
Buy Amazon for AWS and Grocery Catalyst
"Today on the Joseph Carlson show, I'm buying more of a specific stock. The stock is Amazon. Amazon stock has finally gotten a little bit of recognition because AWS finally sped back up, having its first quarter above 20%. The near-term catalyst I see in Amazon is the continued growth of AWS and an aggressive push into the grocery business, which could drive subscription revenue and margin expansion."
A direct trade call on Amazon based on accelerating AWS growth and a strategic push into grocery, which is expected to enhance subscription revenue and margins.
Netflix as a Top Buy Despite Limited Dislocation
"I want to get your thoughts on another name that's had a strong run this year, but you think could go higher, and that's Netflix. It's my number three pick. Uh it's uh I wish it was dislocated. It's not dislocated. I you know, so it's hard to get super pumped beyond the idea. And I guess Morgan, in all fairness, I don't see Mark Mahaney often highlight a company as his top pick that isn't dislocated. But despite that, he recognizes that the fundamentals of the company are so strong that it still justifies a top buy today. In the next three months, I got two catalysts on Netflix. Is it going to rerate dramatically from here? No. But can it compound and maybe rerate a little bit? Yes. That's why it's one of our top three picks."
Mark Mahaney outlines his bullish stance on Netflix, positioning it as his third pick despite acknowledging that it isn't deeply dislocated. He points to near-term catalysts over the next three months as reasons to expect modest re-rating and compound growth, making it an actionable buy signal for investors.
Short Position on Palantir Due to Overstated Earnings
"I haven't owned Nvidia and I've never owned Palunteer. So, these are all companies that I'm not in currently and they're ones that I don't plan to get in in the future."
The speaker outlines a clear portfolio decision influenced by Michael Burry's strategy to short companies that he believes benefit from overstated earnings through extended depreciation schedules. The emphasis is on avoiding positions in Palantir, converting the misspelling to Palantir (ticker PLTR), and reflecting a bearish stance based on fundamental accounting concerns and potential near-term catalysts.
Mark Mahaney Sees a Clearing Event for DoorDash Amid Investment Cycle Concerns
"You know, I I I'd spin it another way or similar to what you just did, John. Investors don't like investment cycles. So I think that's the case with Meta, Dash, Duelingo, Uber. I think there's a few other names in there too. Maybe Pinterest, you know, all those companies that went into and out of this earning cycle and sort of surprise negatively surprised the market by saying we really want to lean into investments first. And I think Door Dash's, you know, to me it's kind of like you just can't be that surprised. They just closed the deal with Deliveroo, they bought the asset to invest in to regrow it and yet the market didn't like it and sold off the stock aggressively. The good news though is that if you believe that it's a good investment cycle, this is your clearing event. This is your chance to get in on a stock. Door Dash hasn't been one of my top longs, but it's something I got to seriously consider now."
Mark Mahaney discusses the current investment cycle, noting that while several stocks are being punished for aggressive future investments, DoorDash presents a buying opportunity as the market has overreacted. He suggests that with the investment cycle now behind, it could be a clearing event to get into the stock at a more attractive price.
Dan Ies Calls Meta a 'Table Pounder' and a Buy Opportunity Below $600
"Look, I think Meta is a bit of an outlier just because, you know, obviously how dramatically more they're going to spend on capex and what happened to numbers going into next year. But in my opinion, Meta is a table pounder here and I think below 600 because it's my view, they're transforming this business over the coming years. Zuckerberg right now wartime CEO. I get, you know, fretting about everything that's happening here, but this is an AI arms race, but I continue to view it as you want to see them spend because you're talking about the earnings growth over the coming year is going to be massive."
Dan Ies offers a contrarian view on Meta, labeling it as a 'table pounder' with transformational potential despite heavy capex spending. He argues that with its current pricing below $600, Meta presents a buy opportunity, banking on significant earnings growth spurred by ongoing investments in AI.
Chipotle's Inconsistent Portions and a Simple Fix
"Now, we get to our fail of the week. This is the second fail of the week. In this case, it's Chipotle. Chipotle stock is down around 50% on the year. And it's not just the stock price. The company's also struggling. For example, even though Chipotle is opening up more locations and they're seeing some growth that way, the average revenue per location is declining and it's been declining quarter after quarter. One of the major problems with Chipotle is very clear. Anyone that has gone there frequently knows about this issue. It is a fact that going to Chipotle to some degree is a bit of a gamble. You don't really know what you're going to get. It's very inconsistent. All Chipotle needs to do is add the scales. That's it. They add the scales and they figure out one massive problem for the business. Food scales are cheap. They're easy to implement. They're easy to train."
The speaker criticizes Chipotle for its highly inconsistent portion sizes, which frustrates customers and affects revenue reliability. He suggests that implementing a simple solution, such as using food scales at point of service, could resolve the inconsistency and improve the customer experience.
Google's AI Chip Rollout Amid Market Sell-Off
"Now, amongst this big sell-off, there are a few companies that are at least holding up right now. Google's one of them. It's sticking in the green, just barely teetering in the green, despite the fact that the rest of the market is selling off heavily and the QQQ, the mega caps, are selling off even more. Why is Google doing so well? Because Google has even more good news. The company said on Tuesday that the seventh generation of its tensor processing unit, the TPUs, called Ironwood, will hit the market for public use in the coming weeks after it was initially introduced in April for testing and deployment. If the market wasn't having a big panic attack today and selling off 2%, Google would be up two to three% on this news. There's no doubt about it."
The speaker highlights that even amid a broad market sell-off, Google remains resilient due to strong product news. Its announcement of the Ironwood TPU—a seventh generation AI chip designed for demanding models—demonstrates innovation that could further bolster its competitive positioning against rivals.
Duolingo Rerating Due to Slowing Bookings
"Now, if we look at the 2025 outlook, they have something here called bookings. The Q4 bookings, so next quarter to grow 22% year-over-year or 19% on a constant currency basis at the midpoint. Now, why is this important? It's important because Wall Street believed that they were going to grow their bookings at around 24%, which is more than what they said they're going to grow. So, Wall Street's saying, "Oh, wow. Not only did they not meet their booking estimates or exceed it, but they didn't even come close. They're, they're below what we expected them to grow." And so, we see a company that's growing slower than expected. When a company's priced at a premium multiple and revenue slows down further than expected, you get stock prices rerated. So that is the single reason the stock is down today."
The speaker explains that Duolingo is experiencing a rerating as its Q4 bookings growth of 22% (or 19% constant currency) fell short of Wall Street's 24% expectation. This slower-than-expected future revenue growth is prompting a reevaluation of the premium multiple, despite strong user engagement metrics elsewhere.
Holding Uber While Awaiting a Better Entry Point
"I really like Uber. I've always had a positive view on Uber and I gave it a 90% chance of being a really good investment. However, it's just not dipping enough to give me that nice, juicy entry opportunity. I own a lot of good companies already, so I'm just patiently waiting for a dip before I add more to my position. The CEO's enthusiasm and new product launches are appealing, but the stock remains too high for an attractive entry right now."
The analyst expresses strong long-term confidence in Uber, citing its innovative product launches and CEO enthusiasm. Despite his bullish outlook, he remains cautious about entering additional positions due to the current high price levels and lack of an attractive dip.
Cautious Long-Term Play on Duolingo Amid Volatility
"Duolingo is a stock that everybody has an opinion on. I own a little position in it, and right now I'm in the red. I believe this quarter, the monthly active users might be the weak spot, even though daily active users and paid subscribers remain strong. It's one of the most volatile stocks I've been a part of, with the potential to swing up or down by 15% or more. As a fundamental investor, I plan to stay invested for the long term, banking on its growth in revenue and earnings per share over time."
The speaker discusses Duolingo's inherent volatility and near-term challenges with monthly active user growth while acknowledging its strong long-term fundamentals and conversion metrics. His position is one of cautious long-term commitment despite short-term price swings.
Avoid Buying Palunteer at Its Extreme Valuation
"When I look at Palunteer, there are two different stories going on. One of the stories is that this company is just amazing. The revenue growth is absolutely insane and it's driven by strong volume of customers. But then there's the valuation – a price-to-sales forward multiple of about 90 and a market cap over 400 billion. Even though I think it's going to beat on its revenue and its earnings, it's not one that I'm interested in jumping in now at this valuation."
The speaker highlights Palunteer's impressive growth fundamentals but warns that its astronomical valuation leaves little room for error. He explicitly avoids buying the stock at current levels due to its extreme pricing, making it a risky proposition if growth were to decelerate.
Strong Performance and Hold Rationale for Google
"Google is at all-time highs. The company reported yesterday, and it's just right up there, right close to its all-time highs, $282 per share or almost 300. This stock is going above $300. I made a video earlier this week saying I think that this earnings report will crush it and they did. It rode up 2.5% on the day into earnings and it was up another 2 and a half% after earnings. This stock has been on a tear. Up 50% year-to-date. In just the past week, it's up 9%. The past month, 15%. The past three months, 47%. Incredible performance by this company. And there is more to go."
The speaker outlines Google's impressive earnings performance with shares near all-time highs, significant recent gains, and rapid year-to-date growth, affirming his commitment to holding the stock as the company continues to deliver strong results.
Bullish Commentary on Amazon's Earnings Driven by AWS Growth
"Now, to start things off, we can just take a look at what's going on with Amazon because this one literally just reported a couple minutes ago. If we look at how the stock is doing, we can bring it up here. Amazon stock. We'll zoom into it and it's up around 9% as of now. Very good start. Obviously, something went way above expectations. My guess instantly would be AWS because it's all eyes on AWS. There was a lot of chatter that AWS would come in very low, that it would come in far below, you know, just dragging behind Google Cloud and Azure. The reason that Amazon is up 9% as of right now is because if we look at their earnings report, AWS segment sales increased 20% year-over-year to 33 billion."
The speaker highlights Amazon's unexpectedly strong earnings, emphasizing a robust 9% surge in stock price driven mainly by AWS, which beat expectations with 20% year-over-year growth, reinforcing his bullish outlook on Amazon.
Netflix remains unbeatable in long-form streaming
"As one analyst said in a Netflix note, "Congratulations on your engagement because their engagement with the biggest movie they've ever had over this last quarter, which got 500 million views, was a true testament to their prowess in long-form streaming. Despite other challenges, Netflix has cracked the code on pricing, boasts an enormous programming budget, and has a strong global presence with international production and a growing ad revenue business. Put all that together and they're going to remain the king. They will remain the king."
The speaker relays Tom Rogers' strong endorsement of Netflix, emphasizing its dominant position in long-form streaming through robust pricing, production capabilities, and a growing global audience. This commentary reinforces Netflix's enduring leadership despite market challenges.
Equifax earnings strong despite negative CEO comment
"Now, moving on, we get to Equifax reporting their earnings this morning. The stock was down 4% because of some commentary of the CEO, despite the fact that they beat their estimates and raised guidance. I see the fundamentals moving in the right direction and will continue to hold for now. This is an example where a single statement can cause a temporary drop, but the underlying business remains fundamentally strong."
The speaker discusses Equifax (EFX), noting that despite a negative CEO comment that caused a temporary drop, the company beat estimates and raised guidance. Strong underlying fundamentals justify a hold position, despite current market sentiment.
Salesforce rebounds with strong fundamentals despite trust issues
"Salesforce stock is going up. When I look at Salesforce, we can look at it in my portfolio. It's now down $1,800, down 3%. At one point I was down around $10,000 in Salesforce, but we're almost moving back up into the green. They laid out a very bold vision at Dreamforce and provided guidance that is very positive, suggesting that the fundamentals are moving upwards."
The speaker notes a recent rebound in Salesforce (CRM), citing strong earnings guidance and a bold vision from their Dreamforce conference, despite lingering trust issues and past underperformance. The turnaround in portfolio performance is emphasized as a positive signal.
AWS outage undermines Amazon's reliability
"The day Amazon broke the internet for millions of Americans. A glitch with an obscure Amazon database disrupted core internet services causing Alexa devices and financial trades to malfunction. The faulty update sent the well-oiled machine careening towards a crash, resulting in prolonged outages across critical services, including my own website Qualrum. This massive failure not only inflicted immediate reputational damage on AWS but is also likely to push companies towards a multicloud strategy, further hurting Amazon's market dominance."
The speaker highlights an AWS outage that caused widespread disruptions and reputational damage for Amazon (AMZN), suggesting that this failure may lead customers to adopt multicloud strategies, negatively impacting Amazon in the long run.
Google high conviction buy despite OpenAI browser threat
"I consider these minor details in the long grand scheme of things. For example, we know that OpenAI and other competitors will be coming after Google. But I believe in this case that Googlea0is actually far better positioned. If this causes a meaningful sell-off, if it goes down 10 plus percent, I'll certainly be buying more Google as a result. I have right now around $150,000 worth of Google stock, $51,000 in the green, making up 11.1% of my total portfolio."
The speaker expresses high conviction in Google (GOOGL), dismissing the competitive threat of OpenAI's new browser and indicating that any significant sell-off (over 10% drop) will be taken as a buying opportunity. His sizeable investment and confidence in Google are emphasized.
Company Commentary on Salesforce
"Now, another company that I'm focused on, but I haven't bought today, is Salesforce. Salesforce just had their Dreamforce convention where they outlined aggressive plans to reacelerate organic growth back to over 10%. They also showcased a slide indicating operating margins could double from 17% to 34% and free cash flow could jump from $4 billion to $14 billion by 2025, with 99% returned to shareholders via buybacks or dividends. Even though this has been my worst performer, I'm still going to hold it because I believe there is far more upside than downside in this company, and I could see it easily moving into the $330 range."
The host provides a detailed commentary on Salesforce, noting its impressive forward-looking metrics such as margin expansion and free cash flow growth. Despite underperformance, he remains committed by holding the stock, anticipating that upcoming growth catalysts could drive the share price into the higher range.
Buy Call on Amazon (AMZN)
"The second one that I bought today was Amazon. I increased my position by another $3,000 in this company. I bought it not near an all-time high. Amazon's going through a little bit of a dip, but I believe there's going to be a lot of bullish catalysts over the next 3 years with Amazon. AWS continues to predictably grow its profit engine and Amazon still maintains its dominant lead in US e-commerce. There are also exciting initiatives in logistics, robotics, and automation that will further propel the company."
The host adds to his Amazon position with an additional $3,000 purchase, viewing the recent dip as a buying opportunity. He underlines Amazon's strengths in AWS, its leading position in e-commerce, and future growth catalysts in logistics and automation, making it a compelling long-term hold.
Buy Call on Google (GOOGL)
"Now, I just spent $8,000 this morning. $5,000 buying one company, $3,000 buying another company. And the two companies that I bought were Google and Amazon. I like Google so much that I have it in both portfolios and I've been buying this company like crazy over the past year. I have another $91,000 position in Google with $25,000 of it being gains. Google has been both a huge position and a big gainer. I've made more gains in Google than I think any other company except for Netflix and I believe that this is going to continue."
The host explicitly reveals his purchase of Google, highlighting his growing exposure by including the stock in multiple portfolios. He emphasizes its strong performance, significant gains, and a series of bullish catalysts, suggesting that despite trading at all-time highs, Google presents a low downside risk with predictable returns.
Caution on Palantirs Extreme Valuation
"But Ive noticed that every time tech investors want to say that were not in a bubble, they use Nvidia as the go-to example. For whatever reason, they not using the example of Palenter. Isnt Palenter the Messi of AI, the leader of AI, the company thats emblematic of the AI tech sector? Palenter trades at valuations that would make bubble companies blush. It trades at a 540 trailing PE, a price to sales of above 100, now at 117. This is in a category that has never happened in history."
The speaker raises concerns over Palantir (referred to as Palenter) by contrasting its extreme valuation metrics against typical defensive tech valuations, such as Nvidias. Despite its leadership position in AI, the extraordinarily high trailing PE and price-to-sales ratios create a case for caution.
Salesforce Partnership Backfires
"Now, moving on, we get to the news. And this is somewhat comical, Id say disappointing, but also comical news about Salesforce. This stock is so hated by the market. As noted by this latest news, Salesforce is expanding its AI partnership with OpenAI and Anthropic, integrating their latest models into Agent Force 360, including deeper ChatGPT and cloud integrations to accelerate AI agent adoption. In this case, after Salesforce announced this partnership with OpenAI, the stock went down. How does a stock go down after you partner with OpenAI? Thats almost impossible. I should be giving them an award for accomplishing the impossible. This should be considered one of the fail of the weeks."
The speaker highlights an anomaly with Salesforce, noting that despite expanding its AI partnerships—a typically positive catalyst—the stock dropped. He underscores that the market sentiment toward Salesforce is extremely negative, describing the move as a "fail of the week."
Amazon Disrupts Pharmacy With Prescription Drug Kiosks
"Amazon is launching a prescription drug kiosk at some one medical offices in Los Angeles. The company announced Wednesday in a move that could disrupt brickand-mortar pharmacy businesses. The kiosks are operated by Amazon Pharmacy working similar to vending machines. They disperse prescriptions for patients within minutes of their doctor's visit. The company said, "Yeah, it looks like you literally go up and and swipe your card like an ATM and then it just dispenses your your drugs.""
The host discusses Amazon's entry into the pharmaceutical space by deploying prescription drug kiosks at medical offices. This innovative move is positioned as a potential disruptor to traditional brick-and-mortar pharmacies, reducing friction in prescription fulfillment and signaling possible long-term competitive pressure on established players in the sector.
Bullish Trade Call on Google with $300 Target
"I still believe that Google today represents one of the best risk adjusted companies in the market. And I'll repeat that until it stops being the case. But right now, I think Google could easily go up to $300 per share. This clear line of sight for another 10 to 20% gain in the short term makes it a compelling play."
The speaker puts forward a trade call on Google, emphasizing its strong risk-adjusted returns and predicting that the stock could reach $300 per share with an additional 10 to 20% upside in the short term. This recommendation is backed by his belief in Google's durable fundamentals and competitive moat.
Avoiding Oracle Due to Revenue Concentration Risk
"Then we have Oracle, which is a genuine hyperscaler cloud computing company. And there's a reason that I don't own Oracle. Keep in mind that Oracle's customer count is only 200,000 with about 80% of their revenue coming from OpenAI. That's promised revenue. It doesn't mean it will for sure happen. This dependency makes Oracle a higher risk compared to companies with a diversified customer base."
The speaker explains his decision to steer clear of Oracle, pointing out that its heavy reliance on OpenAI for 80% of its revenue introduces significant risk. In his view, the lack of customer diversification makes Oracle a less attractive and riskier investment relative to other hyperscalers.
AMD Partnership Strengthens Position Against Nvidia
"AMD's overall ecosystem is not quite as powerful as Nvidia's, but that misses the point. If they can offer great inference and great support at a reasonable price and diversify these different companies away from Nvidia, many of these companies are going to jump onto it. So AMD in this deal is accomplishing two things. Not only is Lisa Sue making it so that her company has tens of billions of dollars more revenue, not only is she partnering with one of the top companies in the world, which is OpenAI, but she's also establishing AMD as finally a viable alternative to Nvidia. So, this is a phenomenal deal for AMD. I think the stock deserves to be up 20 plus%."
The speaker highlights AMD's multi-year AI supply chip partnership with OpenAI as a catalyst that not only boosts revenue but also positions AMD as a solid alternative to Nvidia. He believes that this partnership is a transformative move for AMD and expects the stock to rally further.