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The Patient Investor

The Patient Investor

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Total Ideas

62

With Returns

43

Equal-Weighted Return

-6.56%

All Ideas (62)

62 Total
The Patient Investor

Potential Buy Opportunity for MSTR at a Discount

+10.70%current return
"So for me, I'm keeping an eye on MSDR. And if it goes to 90 cents or 85 cents, then I think it on the dollar, which is 8.5 MNAV, I think it would make sense for me to potentially maybe bet on it and buying Bitcoin at a discount and see if what happens if something happens and it goes back to par."

The speaker outlines an actionable trade idea for Micro Strategy (MSTR) by suggesting that if the stock trades at around 90 or 85 cents on the dollar (8.5 MNAV), it could be an attractive entry point. The rationale is that buying at a discount may allow investors to benefit from potential premium reversion and additional Bitcoin exposure, though the opportunity carries inherent risks.

Entry:$157.25
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Apr 11, 2026
Trade CallBullish
Medium ConvictionScore: 7.6
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorJan 7, 2026
The Patient Investor

Trade Call: Buy Mellie for Long-Term Upside

-4.87%current return
"the valuation has declined as well. It went from 70 times earnings two years ago now trading at about 39 times earnings. This is a much better valuation for Melly but even 39 times may sound expensive but if you look at the growth that have been putting up from Melly and the expected growth which is 48% in earnings per share 2026 and 40% 2027 39 times is nearly not as expensive as it sounds but this is my valuation model on Millie I put in the current earnings per share for 2025 4010 I put in 48% % revenue growth 39% I think earnings per share growth which I believe is fair then I took in a deceleration to 30% 25 20% which I also believe is fair as the company is going to grow it's eventually going to decline in growth and I think that's fair current P is 39 I put it at 30 times earnings based on the current price I'm seeing 125% on the upside or 17.6% 6% kaggle or annual return over the next 5 years with a high quality company like Melly. In my opinion, this is not bad at all. I still believe Mellie is a buy."

The speaker presents a detailed valuation for Mercadu Libra (ticker Melly), noting that its valuation has improved from 70 times earnings to about 39 times. Using a model that targets a move to 30 times earnings, the speaker estimates a potential 125% upside over the next 5 years and ultimately recommends buying the stock despite competitive pressures in the region.

Entry:$37.28
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Jan 8, 2031
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorJan 6, 2026
The Patient Investor

Trade Call on Occidental Petroleum as a Buying Opportunity

+2.25%current return
"One of those stocks is Oxidental Petroleum. I would prefer accidental over Chevron and Exxon because I believe those two stocks are priced at a premium and I think accidental is undervalued on a relative basis and it also has a lot of catalysts coming up. Now accidental is popular because Warren Buffett owns it through Berkshire Haway. The stock hasn't done too well, but recently they sold a legacy business of theirs, which is Oxidental Chemicals or OxyChem for 9.7 billion. And they got the 9.7 billion and they're going to be able to delever in a major major way and take their leverage down to 14.3 billion over the upcoming quarters. Once they reach that target of under 15 billion, the company will finally start to buy stock. So that would be a major boost for the stock and the company because now they can't really return a lot of value to shareholders that's been waiting on the price. I've been waiting for some things to clear up. But if we do get to 40 $45 per barrel on crude oil, I would be a very happy buyer of accidental petroleum. And I might potentially even sell puts on the stock and collect some massive massive premium."

The speaker presents a trade call favoring Occidental Petroleum (OXY), asserting that, compared to Chevron and Exxon, Occidental is undervalued with strong catalysts such as deleveraging from a recent asset sale and potential stock buybacks once debt targets are met. The recommendation is contingent on crude oil prices dropping to the 40 to 45 range, positioning it as a strategic buying opportunity.

Entry:$41.76
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Apr 6, 2026
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorJan 4, 2026
The Patient Investor

Netflix Trade Call if Below Fair Value

-2.41%current return
"So total upside from here is 91% or about a 14% annual return. And in this case, if I want to double my money over the next 5 years buying Netflix, I would have to buy Netflix at about $87 per share. So my fair value hasn't really changed. I still believe $87 per share is fair for Netflix. I think $85 or under, it would start getting really interesting. It would start becoming what I would call a bargain. I still don't believe Netflix is a bargain. At 90, $91, $85, close to 85 or below, even 87, it starts to get interesting. Under 85 for me, it starts to get really, really interesting. And then you would have a ton of margin of safety. If the merger goes through, it's amazing. If it doesn't go through, Netflix will do well on its own. And that's my opinion on Netflix."

The speaker outlines a trade call for Netflix, emphasizing that its current fair value is around $87 per share. They indicate that if Netflix trades at $85 or lower, it becomes an attractive buy due to significant upside potential over the next 5 years, despite concerns over overvaluation and merger-related risks.

Entry:$90.61
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Jan 5, 2031
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorJan 3, 2026
The Patient Investor

Fizer Trade Call: Weight Loss Acquisition and Buyback Catalyst

+1.99%current return
"Now, the second one, which is a cheap stock that I haven't talked about in a while, is Fizer. Fizer is down 32% over the last 5 years. It's trading at eight times earnings, which sounds cheap, but they have pretty much missed out on the weight loss story. They made a $10 billion acquisition for a company called Metser that was valued at $3 billion two months ago, meaning they paid significantly more than its recent value. Despite headwinds like patent expirations and massive debt, the potential for multiple expansion and a future buyback program in 2026 or early 2027 makes Fizer look really interesting."

The speaker discusses Fizer (assumed ticker PFE) as a trade candidate despite concerns over an overpriced $10 billion acquisition and looming patent expirations. The narrative suggests that if the weight loss market tailwind materializes and a buyback program is reinstated in 2026/early 2027, the stock could see substantial upside, albeit with some risk.

Entry:$25.16
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Jan 5, 2028
Trade CallBullish
Medium ConvictionScore: 7.5
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorJan 1, 2026
The Patient Investor

Adobe Trade Call: Valuation Rebound with AI Catalysts

-10.69%current return
"Now, for my upside potential on Adobe, the company has grown 14% earnings per share, has grown 13% this year, expected to grow 12% over the next two years. So 12 to 13% average earnings per share growth. And this is what I put in over here. 12% for the next 5 years. I put in a trailing P of 17 because the trailing it's 17. And I put in the same P for 2030. Assuming no multiple expansion, no multiple contraction, I will get about 78% on the upside or about a 12.2% annual return on Adobe. If I'm buying Adobe today, if I want to double my money in this case, I would have to pay about 314 for Adobe. But I'm being honest with you guys. I believe 15 and 17 times earnings, that's like my worst case scenario."

The speaker presents a trade call for Adobe (ADBE) by highlighting its low current earnings multiple relative to historical levels and robust earnings growth. He outlines a scenario where, with a purchase price around 314, the stock could potentially double its value over the next 5 years, emphasizing both fundamental strength and an AI-driven rebound.

Entry:$331.49
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Jan 4, 2031
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorJan 1, 2026
The Patient Investor

Conditional Sell Trigger on Revenue Deceleration

"Another reason why I would consider selling him is if revenues decelerate for like two to three quarters, like if it's now 598, it goes to 570, then 520, then 450 for the next three quarters, then I would potentially consider selling him. Because if they're not pulling this off right now with the amount of resources they have, then they will never be able to pull it off."

The speaker outlines a conditional exit strategy for HIMS. He specifies that if HIMS experiences a consistent decline in revenues over two to three consecutive quarters—illustrated by a drop from 598 to 570, then 520, and finally 450—this would be a trigger to sell the stock, as it would indicate that the company is failing to execute despite ample resources.

Target:N/A
Horizon:Medium-term 3–12 months
Company CommentaryNeutral/Mixed
Medium ConvictionScore: 8.0
Company OpinionThe Patient InvestorDec 31, 2025
The Patient Investor

Buy Grab for Asymmetrical Upside from Merger and Profitability Growth

-12.05%current return
"Now for my valuation model I took in the 15 cents of earnings per share expected for 2027 and I put it in this calculator. I would get 33 cents earnings per share in 2030. So, I take in 33 cents and I time it by 30 times earnings, which is more than a 50% multiple contraction from the current multiple, which I still believe is fair. This is around $9.90 of a price target over the next 5 years. The stock right now is trading at about $5 per share. This is about 98% on the upside over the next five years, excluding the merger, which would be a gamecher for Grab. So, I really like this setup very very much."
Host

The analyst presents a clear trade call for Grab, highlighting its turnaround story and merger call option. He emphasizes that Grab's improved profitability and its potential merger with competitor Goto could lead to significant upside. A detailed valuation model gives a price target of about $9.90 over the next 5 years, nearly doubling the current price, affirming a strong bullish stance.

Entry:$4.98
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Dec 31, 2030
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorDec 29, 2025
The Patient Investor

Costco Overvaluation and Target Entry Point

+11.78%current return
"Now, the second kind of stock is Costco. Costco I would put it in the mid-stage, mainly operating leverage with capital return. I look at its current trading multiple of 49 times earnings and think it's too extreme. I prefer modeling it at 40 times earnings. In this case the upside from here is only 47% or an 8.3% annual return. And if I want to double my money over the next 5 years or get a 15% annual return, then I would have to buy Costco at 637 per share, which is about 25% lower than here."
Speaker

The speaker evaluates Costco's valuation, arguing that its current 49x earnings multiple is too high compared to a more sustainable 40x. For a target annual return of around 15% and the possibility to double the investment over five years, the speaker suggests waiting for an entry point around $637 per share.

Entry:$862.20
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Dec 31, 2030
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.2
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorDec 28, 2025
The Patient Investor

Verizon Valuation Pitfall: Look Beyond Low P/E

"Now, the first one is Verizon, which is a stock with no growth. The biggest mistake you could say investors make with stocks like Verizon, and I get it all the time. They tell me, 'Look at Verizon. They're trading at eight times earnings. Eight times earnings is dirt cheap for a stock like Verizon. Or look at the other stock. It's trading at six or seven times free cash flow. Verizon is trading at eight times free cash flow. Therefore, Verizon is extremely extremely undervalued.' This is the most common trap you could fall into. The mistake here is that you're looking at price to free cash flow or price to earnings ratio. But some companies have debt. If you want to buy the whole company, you also have to assume the debt. Enterprise value for Verizon is $331 billion while the market cap is $168 billion. So the PE is not really eight times; it's more like 16 or 17 times."
Speaker

The speaker cautions investors against relying solely on low P/E or price-to-free-cash-flow metrics for Verizon, emphasizing that ignoring the company's debt leads to a misvaluation. By considering enterprise value—where Verizon's actual PE is closer to 16-17 times—the seemingly attractive dividend yield and low multiple may be misleading.

Target:N/A
Horizon:Long-term >1 year
Company CommentaryNeutral/Mixed
Medium ConvictionScore: 7.0
OtherThe Patient InvestorDec 28, 2025
The Patient Investor

Home Depot Negative Outlook

-10.52%current return
"the last one is Home Depot, which I actually shorted Home Depot back in 2022. I'm not a big fan of the company in general, especially as everything is transitioning online for the next 5 to 10 years. I think it's going to be disrupted ultimately and fast delivery. But Home Depot is down 11% over the last year. It has really pretty much done nothing over the last 5 years. Has barely up 29%. So, it has not been, you could say, doing its best. Now looking at the average revenue growth over the last few years and given the current valuation at 26 times forward earnings, I believe Home Depot is the least attractive of them."

The speaker expresses a bearish view on Home Depot, noting that its performance has been lackluster relative to other stocks. He points out that the company, which he previously shorted, is facing disruption from the online transition and weak market growth prospects. Additionally, he criticizes its high valuation multiples in the context of modest growth expectations.

Entry:$344.03
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Dec 30, 2035
Trade CallBearish
High ConvictionScore: 7.5
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorDec 27, 2025
The Patient Investor

Vici Properties Trade Call

-69.50%current return
"Now looking at where Vici is trading at, it's trading at 11 times price to adjusted from operations per share which is a metric we use for rates but 11 times is heavily discounted. The stock used to trade an average of 13 14 15 times now trading at 11 and a half times. I never imagined I'd see it back at 11 times but this is what happens. So if you're buying BC today, you're betting also on a multiple reversion back to the average from 11 to 14, which could be powerful. You're also getting a dividend. The dividend right now is about 6.4% which is very very high and it's very sustainable in my opinion. And you're also getting some AFO per share growth of about 4% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026. So if I had to sum up an annual return, I would take in three and a half% in AFO per share growth and add it to the dividend yield of about 6 and a half%. This is about a 10% annual return for just holding VC."

The speaker argues that VC Properties is undervalued, trading at a significant discount compared to its historical multiples. He emphasizes the sustainable dividend yield of around 6.4% and modest earnings growth, suggesting that a multiple reversion from 11x to around 14-15x, along with steady growth, could deliver roughly a 10% annual return. This presents an income-generating, long-term buying opportunity.

Entry:$95.05
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Dec 28, 2040
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorDec 27, 2025
The Patient Investor

Meta – Top Pick Driven by AI and User Base

-6.91%current return
"Now, if you look at what Mark Zuckerberg is doing, he's hiring a lot of AI talent and leveraging Meta's access to over three and a half billion daily active people. If Meta integrates its AI into WhatsApp and Instagram, users can stay within the ecosystem and generate massive advertising revenue. Out of all of the stocks discussed, I would prefer Meta. I started buying a stock at 2021 one times earnings. You're trading at 22 times and I still believe the stock is undervalued. 22 times is not expensive at all, especially relative to other stocks in the market, and Meta is rapidly growing with revenues up 26%."

The speaker makes Meta his top pick, emphasizing its vast user base and AI-driven strategy. He notes that Meta's current valuation at 22 times earnings is attractive compared to peers, especially as the company accelerates revenue growth by 26% and invests heavily in AI to maintain its competitive edge.

Entry:$666.19
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Dec 30, 2027
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorDec 24, 2025
The Patient Investor

PNC Financial Services – Undervalued Banking Play

"Now the second stock that Tom Lee owns is PNC Financial Services. The stock is up 9% year to date and, despite that, its performance since going public has been underwhelming. PNC is mostly focused on non-interest income, and even with elevated interest rates, its non-interest income grew 12% year-over-year. With a P/E ratio of about 12 times and steady dividend yield of 3% alongside growing earnings, it looks very undervalued to me."

The speaker highlights PNC Financial Services as an undervalued opportunity, driven by its growing non-interest income, solid earnings growth, and attractive valuation at around 12 times earnings. Despite being held by Tom Lee for its benefits during easing financial conditions, the speaker notes it as an interesting banking play with a good dividend.

Target:N/A
Horizon:Long-term >1 year
Company CommentaryBullish
Medium ConvictionScore: 7.0
Company OpinionThe Patient InvestorDec 24, 2025
The Patient Investor

GEV Trade Call – Waiting for a Better Entry

+3.33%current return
"So for my estimate I'm using 25 times IBIDA and 30 times IBIDA. If I use 25 times IBIDA I got $326 billion market cap. The current market cap is $178 billion. This is only 82% on the upside for the next 5 years. But for me personally to buy the stock, it would have to be trading around 500 or a little bit under $500 per share. That would be at about a 22-23 times EBIDA multiple."

The speaker outlines a valuation for GEV by applying multiple contraction scenarios over the next 5 years, concluding that while the company's recurring revenue model and strong competitive advantage are attractive, he would only buy if the share price falls near $500 to secure a margin of safety.

Entry:$659.50
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Dec 29, 2030
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorDec 24, 2025
The Patient Investor

Novo Nordisk's Oral GLP1 Pill Drives Bullish Outlook

"There's no way. I can't believe it. There has to be a glitch in the system. There has to be something wrong because the stock has been going straight down for the last 12, 13, 14 months. It's been really, really bad for shareholders. But we finally have some good news about NVO and the FDA has approved the first oral GLP1 pill for weight management in the United States with trial data showing 60.6% 6% weight loss with adherence. The company expects a US launch in early 2026, mainly in January. That's going to be a gamecher for NVO because a lot of people have skipped the injectable as they are scared from needles and oral GLP1 doesn't require needles."

The speaker highlights a major catalyst for Novo Nordisk as the FDA approved its first oral GLP1 pill for weight management. Emphasizing the product's potential to overcome the barrier of injectable treatments and expand patient adoption, the commentary notes the expected US launch in early 2026 and points to a significant turnaround from a prolonged downtrend. The positive development is seen as a transformative move that could reinvigorate stock performance.

Target:N/A
Horizon:Long-term >1 year
Company CommentaryBullish
High ConvictionScore: 7.5
Company OpinionThe Patient InvestorDec 23, 2025
The Patient Investor

Disagreeing With a Flat Decade: A Bullish Long-Term View on the S&P 500

"I disagree that the S&P will be flat over the next 10 years. But I'm also not seeing a 15% 20% annual return as a new normal for the next 10 years. I think some of that was a little bit too extended and some of it was due to the stimulus checks and COVID and all of those money that was pumped in the system that's unlikely to repeat itself over the next I would say 5 to 10 years. So if we're using all those estimates which I believe they're fair I see about a 7 8% annual return which is the long-term average of the S&P 500."
Speaker

The speaker challenges the notion of a flat decade for the S&P 500, arguing instead for a modestly bullish long-term outlook. By comparing historical performance and valuation metrics such as earnings growth and forward multiples, the speaker outlines that an average annual return of approximately 7-8% over the next 10 years is more realistic. They highlight the role of the Magnificent 7 and correlations with monetary factors like the M2 money supply and the Fed balance sheet, suggesting that ongoing monetary easing will support a gradual recovery in performance.

Target:N/A
Horizon:Long-term >1 year
Macro CommentaryBullish
High ConvictionScore: 7.8
Macro ThemeThe Patient InvestorDec 22, 2025
The Patient Investor

Sell SoFi Options for 2% Monthly Income

-3.40%current return
"Now, [snorts] the last percentage of my portfolio is in options. And options not really 2% sometimes it's a little bit more, sometimes a little bit less, sometimes it's really nothing. But sometimes I like to sell options. One of the recent one I sold as an example was SoFi. So, SoFi was going down a lot on pretty much two weeks ago. And I noticed that there was this January 2026 option, which was next month. It was yielding a 2% return. So, if I have the obligation to buy SoFi at $22, I'm going to get paid 2% per month for me to buy SoFi at $22."

The speaker outlines an options-selling trade on SoFi, highlighting a recent opportunity where a January 2026 option is yielding a 2% monthly return. The strategy involves potentially being assigned at a $22 strike price, which the speaker is comfortable with, thereby generating consistent income in a volatile market.

Entry:$27.05
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Mar 26, 2026
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 7.8
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorDec 21, 2025
The Patient Investor

Proctor & Gamble: A Trap Amidst Disruption and Stagnant Growth

+0.06%current return
"The last one for today is Proctor and Gamble. And this is a stock that I called a trap not long ago. People got upset that I called it a trap, but this is really a trap. The company, despite its amazing brands, is showing organic volume growth of 0% and barely 3% earnings per share growth. It's trading at 20 times earnings when it should be closer to 26 or 27 times. I don't see how the growth will pick up over the next 5 years, which makes me believe that P&G is overvalued and at risk of further decline."

The analyst describes Proctor & Gamble as a trap, highlighting its stagnant growth and undervalued prospects relative to its historical multiples. Despite its strong brand portfolio, P&G's lackluster revenue and earnings growth, compounded by competitive pressures, make it an unattractive investment at current valuations over the next five years.

Entry:$144.59
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Dec 23, 2030
Trade CallBearish
High ConvictionScore: 8.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorDec 20, 2025
The Patient Investor

Costco: Awaiting a Valuation Reversion for a Dollar-Cost Averaging Opportunity

-10.55%current return
"Now, Costco is an amazing company but despite the selloff it's trading at 49 times trailing earnings – way above its historical average of around 38 times. I'd get only about 40% upside on a buy at today's level, translating to just a 7% annual return. In my scenario, I'd bet on a reversion to 38 times earnings. In that case, to double my investment over the next 5 years, I would have to pay about $65 per share. Anywhere in the range between $780 and $600 would be a good time to start dollar cost averaging a small position."

The analyst highlights that Costco's current high valuation leaves limited upside at prevailing multiples. He envisions a reversion to its historical multiple and suggests that a meaningful trade entry would require a significant discount – around $65 per share – to achieve a strong return over a 5-year period. The trade is positioned as an opportunity for dollar-cost averaging once the stock trades at more rational multiples.

Entry:$871.75
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Dec 23, 2030
Trade CallBearish
High ConvictionScore: 7.8
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorDec 20, 2025
The Patient Investor

Nike: Awaiting a Substantial Discount for a Trade Entry

-7.30%current return
"Nike is down 57% over the last 5 years. I've been, you know, bearish on Nike since 2023 pretty much. For my valuation model, I'm taking $3.7 for 2028 and I'm putting in another two years after that of 15% in earnings per share growth. I get the 5-year earnings per share target at $46 and, with Nike trading at 30 times earnings, that would be $121 per share. But for me to get a double on this scenario, I would have to buy Nike at about $50 per share. So if it gets to $50 or below, it would be offering some margin of safety."

The analyst expresses a bearish stance on Nike, noting that despite recent improvements in certain regions, the company's revenue declines and overextended multiples make it unattractive at current pricing. The actionable trade idea is to consider buying only if the share price drops to around $50, which would provide a margin of safety and improved upside potential over a 5-year horizon.

Entry:$60.01
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Dec 23, 2030
Trade CallBearish
High ConvictionScore: 7.8
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorDec 20, 2025
The Patient Investor

Trade Call: Buy AVGO Below $280 for 5-Year Upside

+0.71%current return
"So for me personally, a price I would consider buying ABGO at would be around $270 to $280 because I still believe those estimates are a little bit optimistic and I maybe the valuation of 25 times earnings. 5 years from now when competition is changing a lot of things are happening that could be optimistic as well. If it trades at 22 times earnings as an example, I would have to buy the stock at 280 for me to get a double in 5 years. So for me personally under 280 I would be very very interested around the current price."

The speaker offers an actionable trade call on AVGO, suggesting that if the stock trades under $280, it becomes an attractive buying opportunity. The trade idea is based on a calculated upside potential of nearly 89% with an expected 14% annual return over five years, despite acknowledging that current valuations may be too optimistic.

Entry:$349.24
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Dec 22, 2030
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 7.8
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorDec 19, 2025
The Patient Investor

Aggressive Buy Call for SoFi Below $25

-4.04%current return
"Now trading at $26 per share. And for me personally, under $25 SoFi is easy money. And it's getting pretty close to this level where the risk-to-reward setup is getting too good to ignore. And yes, I did trim so far at 31 $32. And I got called all kind of names. But I'm someone that believes in Warren Buffett's principle, which is being fearful when others are greedy and being greedy when others are fearful."

The speaker presents a high conviction trade call on SoFi, emphasizing that its current price around $26 and a drop to below $25 offers an attractive risk-to-reward proposition. The commentary also notes that the stock has significant upside catalysts heading into 2026, making it a compelling buy at lower price levels.

Entry:$27.23
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Dec 16, 2026
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorDec 17, 2025
The Patient Investor

Duolingo Undervalued Amid Revenue Multiples Shift

"Now if we look at Dolingo's valuation it was trading at 160 times earnings and now trading at 50 times earnings. This is GAAP earnings by the way, while Non-GAAP is about 27 times. I believe we should be looking at a price to sales ratio for Dualingo as the company is more focused on growth. Dualingo went from 22 times price to sales ratio to about seven times. I even talked about it myself, but seven times for me is very compelling for a company growing revenues at high rates. So my thesis on Dualingo is that the stock is undervalued here, much better valued than it was a few months ago."

The speaker highlights a dramatic change in valuation for Duolingo, noting a decline in earnings multiples from 160x to 50x and a significant reduction in the price-to-sales ratio from 22x to 7x. He argues that despite the apparent risk from slowing revenue growth, the focus on growth makes the current valuation compelling and undervalued compared to a few months ago.

Target:N/A
Horizon:Medium-term 3–12 months
Company CommentaryBullish
Medium ConvictionScore: 7.8
Company OpinionThe Patient InvestorDec 16, 2025
The Patient Investor

PayPal's Low 11x P/E and Strong Free Cash Flow Yield Suggest Value Opportunity

"But whenever you have a stock that's been going down for so long and it looks cheap and it's still growing, most people believe that it could potentially be a value trap. And if you look at all the metrics, quarterly revenue growth is accelerating, active accounts are accelerating, payment volumes are accelerating, none of those things are indicating that PayPal is a value trap by any means. In terms of the annual return with PayPal, I'm seeing a 10% free cash flow yield and an average revenue growth of 6%, leading to a 16% annual return from today's price. I personally don't believe the PE ratio of 11 is a trap at all, and the company's fundamentals support a potential multiple expansion that could lead to over a 20% annual return."
Analyst

The analyst argues that despite negative sentiment and concerns over a potential value trap, PayPal's improving metrics—accelerating revenue growth, increasing active accounts, and a robust 10% free cash flow yield—justify its low 11x P/E ratio. He estimates a 16% annual return from the current price, with additional upside if multiple expansion occurs, and notes potential acquisition interest as a future catalyst.

Target:N/A
Horizon:Long-term >1 year
Company CommentaryBullish
High ConvictionScore: 7.6
Company OpinionThe Patient InvestorDec 15, 2025
The Patient Investor

Macro Correction and Recovery Forecast for 2026

"He's expecting a 20% plus correction in the first half, followed by a magnificent recovery up to new all-time high of about 7700 in 2026. This is a pretty amazing call and it's very similar to what I talked about in my latest market update video and I recommend you to watch it if you're interested. But he did mention that this is normal after multiple years of 20% plus gains. And if you look at the history over the last 20 years in terms of the S&P 500, anytime we have two or I should say three positive years, the fourth year tends to be a really negative year."
Tom Lee

The insight highlights Tom Lee's forecast of a significant 20% correction in the first half of 2026 followed by a robust recovery to record highs. It underscores historical market patterns where strong consecutive years often lead to a subsequent downturn, raising concerns about market cyclicality. This macro commentary cautions investors to be aware of structural risks and cyclical downturns tied to economic and electoral uncertainties.

Target:N/A
Horizon:Long-term >1 year
Macro CommentaryNeutral/Mixed
Medium ConvictionScore: 7.5
Macro ThemeThe Patient InvestorDec 14, 2025
The Patient Investor

BitMine as a Potential Buy for Ethereum Exposure

"if I'm looking to bet on Ethereum, I think Bitmine here makes a lot of sense because you're pretty much buying it at par. It's no longer trading at a premium. It was even trading at a discount a few days ago. You're essentially getting Tom Lee, which will likely generate a lot of excitement, as he consistently creates more Ethereum per share of value than he issues. I might buy Bitmine again in the future."

The speaker explains how BitMine (BMR) creates value by acquiring Ethereum at strategic times, suggesting that the stock trading at par offers an attractive entry point. He emphasizes the role of Tom Lee in efficiently leveraging Ethereum value creation, making BitMine an appealing option for those looking to gain exposure to Ethereum through a company mechanism.

Target:N/A
Horizon:Immediate
Company CommentaryBullish
High ConvictionScore: 7.0
Company OpinionThe Patient InvestorNov 19, 2025
The Patient Investor

Speculative Trade Call on Nibius

-12.35%current return
"I really like it as a speculative investment, you could say. I think this is a speculative investment in general. It would not be a core holding of mine. I would not put in, let's say, 10% of my portfolio, go all in stock. I would buy a small position if I ever bought Nibius because it's really cheap at three times 2026 guidance for such revenue growth. And if I'm right, I make a lot of money. Even if I'm wrong, I don't lose too much."

The analyst outlines a speculative trade call on Nibius, emphasizing its massive revenue growth and attractive valuation relative to its 2026 guidance. Despite acknowledging concerns about the capex-heavy business model, the analyst recommends taking a small position to capitalize on the strong contracts with Microsoft and Meta.

Entry:$40.47
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Nov 18, 2027
Trade CallBullish
Medium ConvictionScore: 8.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorNov 17, 2025
The Patient Investor

Opportunity to Accumulate More Amazon

+1.90%current return
"But the second one that I like very much and I own a lot of it but I don't own enough is Amazon. Amazon is down 5 and a half% over the last 5 days and I'm very happy for that because again I did not own enough while going into the earnings report. The earnings report was amazing and I said I wish I bought more but now you know you don't have to wish anymore because the stock is going down as a lot of short-term focus is in the market and to me this is a good opportunity to take advantage of, especially if it goes below 220."

The speaker outlines a clear trade call for Amazon (AMZN), noting its 5.5% decline over the past 5 days and pointing to an opportunity to accumulate more shares, particularly if the price falls below 220. The commentary highlights positive earnings and potential gains from the robotics efficiency initiative.

Entry:$234.63
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Feb 14, 2026
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorNov 16, 2025
The Patient Investor

Buy Opportunity in Meta at Lower Prices

+7.82%final return
"Now, the first stocks that I'm looking to buy over the next 30 days is Meta. Meta is down 14% on the months. I did a video on it at 650, but I told you guys if the AI fears continue, it could potentially go to 550. And it seems like it's on its way there. And I personally like it."

The speaker explicitly identifies Meta (META) as a buy within the next 30 days, highlighting its 14% decline over the month and mentioning a potential drop to 550 if AI fears persist, emphasizing the stock's undervaluation relative to its growth prospects.

Entry:$609.61
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Dec 16, 2025
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.5
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorNov 16, 2025
The Patient Investor

CSU's Generational Buy Opportunity Amidst a Historic Selloff

"This is a sell-off that hasn't happened since the company went public about 37% from its all-time high. This is a stock that's gaining a lot of traction amongst the retail community as a quality stock to buy and hold forever. And there's really a misunderstood story where the company is having its Google kind of moment when people said that Google was dead and it's not an AI stock. I see the same setup for this one. If I'm right, I believe the gains on this stock are going to be insane. And if I'm wrong, then you know the stock's going to keep going down. But this stock is CSU, which is Constellation Software."
Speaker

The speaker outlines a generational buying opportunity for Constellation Software (CSU), emphasizing that the current historic selloff—down 24% year to date—is a rare event. He draws parallels with Google's turnaround amid AI fears, arguing that CSU's recurring revenue model, non-dilutive acquisitions, and potential efficiency improvements from AI set the stage for significant upside despite leadership changes. The commentary suggests that the selloff is overdone, making CSU attractively valued for long-term hold.

Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Nov 15, 2027
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorNov 14, 2025
The Patient Investor

Contrarian Long-Term Hold on OUSTER Amid Volatility

"Now the second one which I own that's also been a disaster recently is uh ouster and I'm going to talk about it here. Alster stock is down 26% on the months. It's been a terrible performance from the company. Now the most exciting part about the business is the smart infrastructure. This is going to allow the company to become more of a software company over time. I'm going to hold it for the next 5 10 years and I'm going to keep it and see what happens as long as the thesis remains intact."
Speaker

The speaker examines the robotics and automation company OUSTER, noting its recent 26% decline and poor short-term performance. However, he emphasizes the company's potential in smart infrastructure and software integration, suggesting that despite current setbacks, the stock appears oversold and represents a long-term hold opportunity, with expectations to benefit once dilution slows down and catalysts like the Kronos launch materialize.

Target:N/A
Horizon:Long-term >1 year
Company CommentaryBullish
Medium ConvictionScore: 7.2
Company OpinionThe Patient InvestorNov 13, 2025
The Patient Investor

Undervalued Opportunity in HIMS

"The first one is Hems and Hers health. It's down 34% over the last months and people again are doubting the stock and they're kind of crying about it a little bit. But to me, I've been in the stock from $7 per share and people told me, 'I wish I bought him at seven.' The only way I was able to hold from $7 is because I was not paying attention to the chart; I was paying attention to the fundamentals, to the long-term thesis around the company. Most investors can't do it. I still believe he is an undervalued opportunity."
Speaker

The speaker discusses Hims and Hers health, noting its steep decline and the resulting investor skepticism. Emphasizing a focus on long-term fundamentals over short-term chart movements, the speaker highlights that holding the stock from a $7 entry point was possible due to a strong underlying thesis, ultimately characterizing the stock as an undervalued opportunity.

Target:N/A
Horizon:Long-term >1 year
Company CommentaryBullish
High ConvictionScore: 7.8
Company OpinionThe Patient InvestorNov 13, 2025
The Patient Investor

NVO Extremely Undervalued Trade Opportunity

+26.86%current return
"After looking at NVO again, I think there will still be some challenges in the short term due to their deal with the US government which is going to lower their margins, but I believe the volume growth that could come out of it after 2026 could potentially more than offset the temporary margin compression. They're going to get a deal on the tariffs for the next three years. No tariffs. That's going to be huge for them. So I believe NVO at 12 times earnings relative to all those risks is more than fairly valued. It's even extremely undervalued in my opinion and the dividend is well covered for now and I believe the company has not been buying back stock in 2025, so they should start buying back stock again in 2026 and that could be a catalyst for the stock to potentially bottom out or start holding up a little bit better."

The speaker argues that despite short-term margin compression from a government pricing deal, Novo Nordisk (NVO) is extremely undervalued at 12 times earnings. He believes that post-2026, volume growth, tariff exemptions, and eventual share buybacks could offset these pressures, making NVO an attractive trade opportunity.

Entry:$49.15
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Nov 13, 2027
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 7.6
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorNov 12, 2025
The Patient Investor

Chipotle Overvalued Despite Brand Strength

"Now, for the 4P trading at 26 times forward earnings that was a company I used to trade at 65 70 times. It was at 35 times two weeks ago. Now trading at 26 times forward earnings and I still believe it's overvalued. I would compare Chipotle to other, you say, companies even Darden Restaurants. For such a business model, I would really not pay much more than 20 times earnings. I think anything above 20 in general is too expensive for a business model like Chipotle."

The speaker critiques Chipotle's current valuation, noting that even though the stock has come down from extremely high multiples, it remains overvalued at 26 times forward earnings. He emphasizes that for Chipotle's business model, a multiple above 20 times earnings is too expensive, comparing it unfavorably to peers like Darden Restaurants.

Target:N/A
Horizon:Short-term <3 months
Company CommentaryBearish
Medium ConvictionScore: 7.5
Company OpinionThe Patient InvestorNov 10, 2025
The Patient Investor

ELF Beauty as a Turnaround Bet with Limited Holding Period

"Now the second one which I talked about many times is Elf Beauty. ELF is down 40% over the last even two or three days. It was a $120 stock on Wednesday. Now it's at $73 per share. I think it's a good turnaround bet. But I personally would not keep the company more than one to two years after the road acquisition keeps growing then road will peak and then you're going to have to acquire another one and maybe I would not keep it more than two years."

The speaker discusses ELF Beauty's recent price drop and turnaround potential. While acknowledging the short-term improvements driven by acquisitions, he cautions against long-term holding due to concerns over sustainable organic growth, suggesting a holding period of one to two years.

Target:N/A
Horizon:Medium-term 3–12 months
Company CommentaryBullish
Medium ConvictionScore: 7.0
Company OpinionThe Patient InvestorNov 10, 2025
The Patient Investor

Prefer Buying SOFI Over Celsius

-15.60%current return
"But if it was me, I would be looking at other stocks in the market like you know SoFi sold off. I would buy SoFi over Celsius any day and you're getting much better business model, not as much competition, not as small of margins and you don't have a company that's dependent on acquisitions."

The speaker explicitly favors buying SOFI instead of Celsius due to its stronger business model, lower competitive risk, and healthier margins. This trade call implies a bullish outlook for SOFI as a better investment opportunity compared to Celsius.

Entry:$30.96
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Feb 9, 2026
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorNov 10, 2025
The Patient Investor

Trade Call: Constellation Energy Bounce Amid Recession Fears

-14.17%current return
"For example, in the August selloff of 2024, this is an example because it's well recorded. And that was Constellation Energy, which is a utility company that uh powers data centers. And I wrote investors forgot about AI data centers, clean energy transition because we're going into a recession. I hope it continues. That was not my mindset two years ago. My mindset was, 'Oh, we're going into recession. What stocks will do best in a recession? How can I buy put options to protect my portfolio against a recession?' I'm like, 'Now we're going into recession.' Okay, good news. What's going to come after the recession? How can I make the most amount of money after the recession? Buying something that people were loving a few months ago, but now they forgot about it because all they can pay attention to is the short term. So, I bought CEG at 167. The stock went up to $400 this year and now trading at $350. That's an example."
Ling

Ling illustrates an actionable trade by discussing his Constellation Energy (CEG) move during the August selloff, where he purchased CEG at 167. He emphasizes that while many investors simply dollar cost average, identifying true bargains is key. The example underscores his approach of waiting for significant selloffs to deploy cash, expecting strong recovery potential in a recession scenario.

Entry:$358.63
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Feb 7, 2026
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorNov 9, 2025
The Patient Investor

Best November Buy: Meta Stock Trade Call

+0.18%current return
"Now, the best stock to buy in November, in my opinion, by far amongst quality companies, mega caps, the big seven in general, is really Meta. Meta is down 11% over the last months. Meta right now is trading at 21 times forward earnings. 21 times is really cheap for the company considering the market in general. And if you compare Meta to the big seven, it's the cheapest by far."

The speaker identifies Meta as the top buying opportunity for November, highlighting its low forward P/E of 21x compared to peers and emphasizing its strong positioning given the market's expensive valuations.

Entry:$619.02
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Nov 7, 2027
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.4
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorNov 6, 2025
The Patient Investor

Duolingo Appears Undervalued Despite Selloff

-22.38%current return
"Now in terms of my valuation model, I'm taking an extremely conservative valuation model. In my previous video, I put up 30% for 2026 and 25 2020 and I use 30P. I got $582 per share upside potential over the next 5 years. And this one, I'm going to be even more conservative and I'm going to use 30% 2515 to account for a potential deceleration in earnings Porsche growth. Although the company could be much more profitable than it is, they have insane gross margins. So if they want to really expand profitability, they can do it and I believe that will likely be conservative. The current PE ratio is actually around 30 times earnings as of the selloff around 30 times. I took it down to 25 times earnings as I believe the company will have much higher margins in the future."

The speaker outlines a conservative valuation model for Duolingo, suggesting significant upside potential despite the 20% after-hours drop. By lowering the PE ratio assumption from 30 to 25, he indicates that the stock could offer over 100% upside over the next 5 years, making it an attractive long-term opportunity even after a temporary deceleration in quarterly growth.

Entry:$193.49
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Nov 6, 2027
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorNov 5, 2025
The Patient Investor

Potential Entry Point for AMD at $183 per Share

-9.53%current return
"Now in terms of the valuation of the company, I'm being honest guys, it's starting to get extended. I told you guys the stock was dirt cheap at 2019 times earnings. Now trading almost at 50 times earnings. So this is my valuation model on AMD. I pretty much put in the current estimate for 2025, $3.90 earnings per share, and I believe we're going to take a multiple contraction from 50 times to around 35 times earnings, which would equal $513 per share. But if I did not own AMD and I'm looking for a potential entry and I want some margin of safety, I'd consider waiting for it to get down to around $183 per share."

The speaker presents an updated valuation on AMD, noting that its current valuation is high at 50 times earnings compared to a historical low, and projects a multiple contraction to 35 times earnings that could drive the price to $513 per share. He suggests that for a safer entry with margin of safety, buying AMD at around $183 per share would be more attractive, indicating a potential long-term trade opportunity.

Entry:$255.75
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Nov 5, 2027
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorNov 4, 2025
The Patient Investor

HIMS Misunderstood Opportunity with Massive Upside

-28.45%current return
"I've owned HIMS from $7 per share. I have averaged up multiple times on the company and I've been talking about it on YouTube from around $10 per share and I always get a lot of dislikes when I talk about this one because I really believe it's a misunderstood opportunity in general especially right now as a company is going through a transition period which is why I think it's presenting an amazing opportunity. The company is diversifying away from weight loss and expanding into sexual health, dermatology, mental health, hormone health and longevity, which I believe will drive a massive multiple expansion to at least six times sales or seven times sales, potentially even 10 times sales. With a current market cap of $10 billion and a forecast of a 225% to 550% upside over the next 4-5 years, this is one of the best risk-rewards in the market."

The speaker presents HIMS as a misunderstood growth opportunity undergoing a transition from solely weight loss to more diversified healthcare offerings, positioning it for significant multiple expansion and substantial upside (225%-550%) over the next 4-5 years.

Entry:$43.76
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Nov 5, 2026
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.2
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorNov 4, 2025
The Patient Investor

Amazon Too Cheap to Ignore – Buy On Dips

-3.95%final return
"And that's why I told you guys the stock was too hated. It was too cheap to ignore and I've been buying to dip on the stock. It's so far paying off. But we'll see what happens tomorrow. It could change within two or three minutes. If it goes back down, I would be a happy buyer to buy more of the stock and average up on my position and build it as a long-term investment. I believe Amazon has about another 15 to 20% on the upside from the 10% moves we had today and from then I would see at least a 20% annual return."

The speaker expresses strong bullish sentiment on Amazon (AMZN), emphasizing that the stock is undervalued and that buying on dips has proven profitable so far. The commentary lays out an actionable strategy: hold the position, and if the price dips, accumulate more shares for a long-term investment, expecting an approximate 15-20% upside and a 20% annual return.

Entry:$244.29
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Nov 14, 2025
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorOct 30, 2025
The Patient Investor

Explicit Buy Call for META at $650

-8.40%final return
"I talked about the stock two weeks ago and I told you guys I could potentially be interested in buying it at $650 per share or below. And many people told me it's never going to happen. You're just trying to times the market. But I told you guys I'm a disciplined individual and I don't like to overpay for stuff. Well, it's finally here. Meta got very close to $650 per share and I'm living up to the name. It's in my buy zone."

The speaker explicitly recommends buying Meta at around $650 per share. He emphasizes his disciplined approach to avoid overpaying, and points to Meta's attractive valuation and strong earnings beats as catalysts for this recommendation.

Entry:$665.89
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Nov 13, 2025
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.2
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorOct 30, 2025
The Patient Investor

FISERV: Hold for Current Owners and Cautious Entry for New Buyers

-15.75%current return
"So if you owned Fiserf I would not be a seller at this price. I think it would be crazy to be selling the stock because the company again is buying back and is taking advantage of those prices. So I personally would not be a seller. But let's say I was trying to enter Fiserf I would personally uh give the same kind of uh recommendation I did with Evolution Gaming where I told you guys I would wait for two positive or consecutive let's say earnings per share growth or two positive margin expansion or something of two consecutive quarters of a positive trend. Maybe you will not catch the bottom. Maybe Fiserve will be let's say at 90 or $95 in six months or something and you will not catch the bottom but at least you would be riding the right trend. Now you are riding the wrong trend and maybe next quarter will be worse and they're going to lower guidance again and maybe there's a structural issue with the company that we don't know about yet."

The speaker advises current holders of FISERV to retain their positions given the company's share buyback and favorable free cash flow outlook, while cautioning new buyers to wait for two consecutive quarters of improved earnings or margin expansion before entering, suggesting that the current price may be undervalued but is subject to near-term uncertainties related to inflation adjustments in Argentina.

Entry:$538.83
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Jan 28, 2026
Trade CallBullish
Medium ConvictionScore: 7.8
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorOct 30, 2025
The Patient Investor

Initiate Call Options Trade on PayPal Based on Bottom Formation

-18.37%current return
"And with me seeing the trend of PayPal, I think this is finally the time for me to start maybe buying call options on the stock or do something around it. But I personally see at least 15 to 17% annual return on PayPal. So for me in this overvalued market I think PayPal is still presenting one of the best opportunities in the market especially with me seeing how the trend is reversing in terms of revenue growth. It was declining, now it's accelerating. Venmo is starting to grow again. Braintree is doing well and the business is headed in the right direction with a new deal with Open AI."

The speaker asserts that PayPal has likely bottomed and signals an actionable trade by considering call options on the stock. He cites improvements such as reversing revenue growth trends, positive performance from Venmo and Braintree, and a strategic deal with Open AI. He projects a 15-17% annual return based on current fundamentals and a low valuation, making it one of the best opportunities in an overvalued market.

Entry:$69.69
Target:N/A
Horizon:Expires Jan 27, 2026
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 7.8
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorOct 28, 2025
The Patient Investor

UNH Shows Attractive Long-Term Return Potential Despite Paused Buybacks

"So, I see at least a 14 15% annual return on United Healthcare from this price. And plus, I'm also seeing a return from the dividend. The dividend right now is around 2.3% or 2 and a half% and it's well covered because the free cash flow yield is about 5 a.5%. So the coverage ratio or the free cash flow payout ratio is about 50%. So I'm seeing around two two and a half% from the dividend 13 14% from earnings per share. So I would say at least 15 16 17% annual return from a recessionp proof company. And there's a lot of bad sentiment. There's a lot of low expectations. So I see a lot of call option like payoff from this one because again expectations are low and the CEO will likely keep raising expectations more and more every quarter and they have a lot of pricing power in terms of raising prices on those plans because again there's really no alternatives to this one."

The speaker highlights United Health's earnings report and future outlook, emphasizing a forecast of 14-17% annual return based on dividend yield and earnings growth. Although buybacks are paused to improve their debt to capital ratio, the commentary is bullish on the company's underlying fundamentals and pricing power, making UNH a compelling long-term investment.

Target:N/A
Horizon:Long-term >1 year
Company CommentaryBullish
High ConvictionScore: 7.8
Company OpinionThe Patient InvestorOct 28, 2025
The Patient Investor

Valuation Misconceptions: Amazon's High PE Explained

"The first one, which might be a controversial one, might surprise some of you, is that the PE is useless. So, back when I started investing, and maybe some of you are the same, you go on Yahoo Finance and you see a company trading at 30p or 35p. Oh, that's overvalued. Would you skip the stock? 25p is too high. Would you skip it? 50p is too high. 100 PE is too high. All of it is too high. It's overvalued. Would you skip the stock? I used to do the same thing. But as you go along, you're going to learn that the PE is useless for three main reasons. The first reason is some companies have a high PE on purpose because they reinvest in themselves. You could say companies like Amazon, this is the best example I can come up with because Amazon has $311 billion in gross profit, spent 88 billion on research and development, and its net income is around $59 billion. Now, Amazon has Amazon.com, it's going to be here forever, pretty much. Yet, they're spending 88 billion in R&D. So instead of spending 88 billion, let's say next year they decided to spend 42 billion or $44 billion. In this case, net income would jump from 59 billion to around a hundred billion, and the PE that looks like 35 could fall to maybe 22 to 25."

The speaker challenges the conventional reliance on the PE ratio as a valuation metric by using Amazon as an example. He explains that a high PE can be justified when a company reinvests heavily in growth, such as R&D spending. This reinvestment temporarily lowers net income and inflates the PE, suggesting that investors should look deeper into the company's fundamentals rather than skipping a stock solely based on a high PE number.

Target:N/A
Horizon:Long-term >1 year
Company CommentaryBullish
High ConvictionScore: 7.0
Company OpinionThe Patient InvestorOct 26, 2025
The Patient Investor

UNH: Opportunity in Insurance Through Call Spreads and Margin Recovery

-8.69%current return
"The final one, which is by far the most hated sector, is insurance, and the stock that I own is UNH, United Healthcare. Many of you asked, "What have you done on the dip?" and although I didnt buy the dip, I bought call spreads on UNH for June 2027, which are up about 74%. United Health fell significantly in 2025 due to underestimated medical costs, but they are addressing this by raising prices and exiting unprofitable plans. Their pricing strategy is intensely focused on margin recovery and moving back towards an earnings per share growth target of 13%. With strong cash reserves and a history of significant stock buybacks, I believe 2026 could be an amazing year for UNH."

The speaker presents United Healthcare (UNH) as a contrarian investment in the insurance sector. Despite a significant dip in 2025 driven by cost misestimations, UNH is repositioning itself through price hikes and plan exits to recover margins. The speaker has already capitalized on this by buying call spreads, which have appreciated dramatically, signaling a bullish outlook for 2026 supported by robust fundamentals and potential buybacks.

Entry:$362.60
Target:N/A
Horizon:Medium-term 300 months
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorOct 25, 2025
The Patient Investor

Adobe: Discounted Valuation Amid AI Narrative

-16.22%current return
"The second stock that I believe could outperform in 2026 is Adobe. Adobe is down 27.5% over the last 5 years and is now trading at 15.5 times forward earnings, which is unheard of for Adobe. The narrative that AI is killing Adobe doesnt hold up because the company is still growing revenues at 10 to 10.5% despite AI technologies like ChatGPT emerging. They mentioned AI 89 times in their investor presentation and are well ahead of their AI targets. With high margins, consistent earnings per share growth of around 12-13%, and stock buybacks reducing shares outstanding, I think Adobe is one of the cheapest stocks in the market and a comeback candidate for 2026."

The speaker argues that Adobe, despite being painted as a casualty of the AI revolution, remains fundamentally strong. Trading at a very attractive 15.5x forward earnings along with solid revenue growth and AI-driven product improvements, Adobe is positioned to benefit rather than suffer. Its high margins and share buyback program further add to its appeal, making it a potential major comeback story in 2026.

Entry:$353.41
Target:N/A
Horizon:Medium-term 300 months
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorOct 25, 2025
The Patient Investor

PayPal: Potential Rebound with Call Options and Valuation Reset

-18.47%current return
"The first one very hated stock is PayPal. PayPal is down 65% over the last 5 years. The sentiment is so bad on PayPal that its now trading at 12 times earnings, compared to trading at 60 times a few years ago. Yet, if you look at the active accounts, they have been growing every single quarter, by about 2 million each time, and total payment volume has been increasing almost every quarter. The decline in revenue growth from 9% down to 1% was temporary due to unprofitable contracts with Brainree, which the CEO cancelled to focus on profitable growth. Now, trading at a 12% free cash flow yield (roughly 10% after stock-based compensation), its a high margin business that can buy back 10% of its shares annually. I believe the potential for a massive change in sentiment in 2026 is huge."

The speaker outlines a contrarian opportunity in PayPal, emphasizing its drastic valuation compression from 60x to 12x earnings. Despite negative sentiment, key metrics such as growing active accounts and consistent payment volume indicate underlying strength. The temporary revenue slowdown due to Brainree contracts has ended and the strong free cash flow yield supports robust share buybacks, positioning PayPal for a sentiment reversal in 2026.

Entry:$69.77
Target:N/A
Horizon:Medium-term 300 months
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorOct 25, 2025
The Patient Investor

Uber Company Commentary: Mispriced Fundamentals Amid Bad Sentiment

"It's not only a bet on the future like autonomous vehicles, even delivery drones, which I believe are the future of the delivery business model, but even flying taxis like Jobby Aviation and anything you could think about for the future. It's a bat on all those things, but none of those things are priced in the stock as it's trading at 18 times cash flow, growing cash flow, 20% plus every single year. The stock has really bad sentiment. Whenever I'm going to talk about it here shortly, most of you are going to skip the video. You're going to tell me why are you talking about the stock? The company is dead. The company has no moat. But this sentiment with the combination of amazing fundamentals is what leads to explosive moves like the one we had on Google when AI was supposed to kill Google or ChatGPT, just like again AMD which I talked about when it was getting crushed and we saw how that happened."

The speaker highlights Uber's strong fundamentals despite negative market sentiment. He underscores that while investors dismiss the company as lacking a moat, the low valuation (18 times cash flow) combined with high growth in cash flow presents an explosive opportunity similar to past market mispricings in tech stocks.

Target:N/A
Horizon:Long-term >1 year
Company CommentaryBullish
Medium ConvictionScore: 8.0
Company OpinionThe Patient InvestorOct 23, 2025
The Patient Investor

Uber Trade Call: Buy the Dip Around $85

-9.72%current return
"Now, for me personally, I own Uber. I have a decent stake. I want to buy more. So, I'm in a good position to be a little bit more patient, I would say. So, for me personally, let's say I did not own Uber. If it was me, I would be maybe starting a position here and dollar cost averaging down. Again, not financial advice, but this is what I would likely do. But for me, because I have a stake in the company and because I'm seeing other opportunities, I think the ideal buy range, or I would say the price range where it is too cheap to ignore, is likely around $85 per share. So, if Uber gets to 85 or below, I'm going to be heavily buying the stock like a lot. And if it doesn't get there, I will likely be maybe buying small buys here and there to increase my stake. But I still love Uber over the next 5 years."

The speaker provides an explicit trade call for Uber, indicating he would aggressively increase his position if the share price falls to around $85. He cites the stock's strong fundamentals and low valuation (18 times cash flow) as catalysts, and notes his long-term conviction in the company.

Entry:$94.04
Target:N/A
Horizon:Immediate
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 9.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorOct 23, 2025
The Patient Investor

Valuation Attraction at 15x Free Cash Flow Amid Caution

"Now if we look at where this business is trading at, it's trading at 15 times cash flow. This is almost a value investment. I've seen articles saying that Salesforce right now is a value stock. Maybe it's not a value investment, but it's getting cheap, guys. I mean, 15 times cash flow for Salesforce is really crazy. It used to trade at 55 times a few years ago and a few months ago it was around 22-25 times. At 15 times, to me this is very interesting. Assuming they hit a 10% revenue growth, the free cash flow yield of around 6% could translate to a 15 to 16% annual return, with potential for a multiple reversion to 18-20 times."

The speaker notes that Salesforce is now trading at an attractive 15 times free cash flow, a significant reduction from previous multiples. Despite his reservations about management, he outlines a scenario where sustained organic growth and potential multiple expansion could deliver substantial annual returns, though he remains cautious due to historical performance issues.

Target:N/A
Horizon:Medium-term 3–12 months
Company CommentaryBullish
Medium ConvictionScore: 7.8
Company OpinionThe Patient InvestorOct 22, 2025
The Patient Investor

Doubts on Salesforce 2030 Guidance and Management Track Record

+10.99%current return
"But the stock is finally going up because the company has issued 2030 guidance. Now, back in 2022 they issued guidance for 2026 and here we are in 2026 guiding for 41 billion. We are nowhere close to the guidance they gave back in 2022. So, if they could not meet their 2022 guidance for 2026, not even get close to it, why should we trust the 2030 guidance? I I'm personally not going for it. I I'm not trusting it. Maybe this time is different. But again, it's hard to trust the management team that has disappointed over and over and over again."

The speaker expresses skepticism about Salesforce's 2030 guidance given its history of missing previous targets. He highlights that despite recent positive movements, the management's track record makes him reluctant to invest, suggesting that he will avoid adding to his position in CRM.

Entry:$255.05
Target:N/A
Horizon:Short-term <3 months
Trade CallBearish
High ConvictionScore: 7.8
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorOct 22, 2025
The Patient Investor

Buying the Dip on Amazon Amid Undervaluation

+7.25%current return
"Now the second one which is a funny pick which is a competitor to Melly is Amazon and this is the ones that I own and it's been a disappointment. It's down 3% on the year. Every single stock is up even I believe Coke is up. Pepsi is up I think and and Amazon Amazon's down 3%. So, it's been a little bit of a disappointment, but this is some the times where you have to look at what Mr. Market is doing and you have to look at what the company's doing. And as the company is getting better, but the stock's going down and it's looking undervalued, then to me, this is an opportunity to be buying the dip."
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The speaker discusses Amazon as a trade opportunity despite recent disappointing performance, with the stock down 3% while peers are up. Highlighting that the stock appears undervalued relative to its improving fundamentals, the speaker indicates that he has been buying the dip at around $175, viewing this as an opportunity to average down on a solid, multifaceted company.

Entry:$222.04
Target:N/A
Horizon:Short-term <3 months
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 7.8
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorOct 20, 2025
The Patient Investor

Bearish Trade Call for Lululemon (LULU)

-20.64%current return
"The second one is Lululemon, which I told you guys to avoid in my last video. Its trading at $167 per share and down 55% year to date, with comparable sales dropping to 1% and a massive disappointment in guidance. The CEO even admitted that the company has become too predictable in its casual offerings, missing key trends. I think Lululemon has the potential to be a trap because you cant really predict consumer preferences, and personally, Im not touching it."

The speaker issues a bearish trade call on Lululemon (LULU), citing its significant decline (55% YTD), falling comparable sales, and acknowledged stagnation in product trends by the CEO. Despite the stock trading at an attractive valuation, the uncertainty around consumer trends and market dynamics makes it a potential trap, leading the speaker to avoid investing in it.

Entry:$169.02
Target:N/A
Horizon:Short-term <3 months
Trade CallBearish
High ConvictionScore: 7.6
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorOct 13, 2025
The Patient Investor

Bullish Trade Call for Adobe (ADBE)

-0.58%current return
"Adobe went from 35p and it used to trade around 50p, now trading at 14.8 times earnings. I think Adobe is presenting one of the best opportunities in the market and one of the most misunderstood opportunities, and the company believes its misunderstood because theyre using their free cash flow to buy massive quantities of stock and reduce shares outstanding. I used to be bearish on Adobe, but if AI is not killing Adobe as fast as people believe, I think 14 times earnings will likely end up being cheap and the stock could recover in a major way. So, I like Adobe very much over here."

The speaker outlines a bullish trade call for Adobe (ADBE), emphasizing its undervaluation at around 14 times forward earnings despite strong fundamentals, recurring revenue, and continued cloud growth. They highlight Adobes active share buybacks and potential multiple reversion if AI does not hurt its fundamentals, making it one of the best buying opportunities in the market.

Entry:$335.90
Target:N/A
Horizon:Medium-term 3–12 months
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.4
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorOct 13, 2025
The Patient Investor

Buy Meta if Price Falls Below 650

-7.43%current return
"Now, the first stock that I believe could do extremely well out of this pullback is Meta. Meta is down 6 and a half% on the month. Meta is just an amazing company with almost three and a half billion daily active people. I put in the current PE ratio for 2025 and I personally wouldn\'t pay much more than 23 times earnings. So, if Meta gets to 650 or below, I will likely start a position."

The speaker outlines a clear trade call on Meta. He highlights its strong fundamentals, huge user base, disciplined expenses and reinvestment strategy, and emphasizes that buying Meta at or below 650 is crucial to achieving his upside target. The commentary is supported by valuation metrics and growth expectations.

Entry:$705.38
Target:N/A
Horizon:Short-term <3 months
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.0
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorOct 11, 2025
The Patient Investor

AMD Price Target Revision and OpenAI Partnership Catalyst

+1.25%current return
"AMD no longer stands for advanced money destroyer. I"m now calling it advanced money dispenser as a stock is up 26% on the open AI partnership. Based on my last video, I gave my price target of $370 per share. And in this video, I"m going to update it up to $500 per share after the partnership with Open AAI. I"m going to give you the details and tell you how I got this price target. The Open AI partnership is pretty much a gamecher as it could generate tens of billions of dollars of annual revenues for AMD."
Speaker

The speaker updates the AMD price target from $370 to $500 per share, citing the OpenAI partnership as a major catalyst. He emphasizes the potential revenue generation, multi-year deal details, and the strategic use of dilution to secure a long-term partnership with OpenAI, positioning AMD for significant growth.

Entry:$211.47
Target:N/A
Horizon:Long-term >1 year
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.6
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorOct 6, 2025
The Patient Investor

Company Commentary: Amazon Trading at a Discount with Growth Prospects

"The second one is Amazon... Amazon is trading at 14 times price to operating cash flow, which is pretty crazy for a mega cap... I still like Amazon, and despite its temporary operating cash flow deceleration, if it grows operating cash flow by 20% over the next few years, it is too cheap to ignore."
Host

The speaker offers commentary on Amazon (ticker: AMZN), noting that it is trading at an attractive multiple relative to its operating cash flow despite underperforming compared to peers. Concerns over a slowdown in operating cash flow growth are mentioned, but the potential catalyst of improved AWS performance and a discounted valuation make it a compelling long-term hold.

Target:N/A
Horizon:Long-term >1 year
Company CommentaryBullish
Medium ConvictionScore: 7.6
Company OpinionThe Patient InvestorOct 2, 2025
The Patient Investor

Trade Call: Buy SoFi on Dip for Strong Growth and Margin Expansion

+3.78%current return
"The first stock which I haven't talked about in a while is SoFi. SoFi is down 7% over the last 5 days... I bought the dip on August 20th at $21 and now it's sitting at 25... I might even average up at $25 because I believe the stock is just extremely undervalued relative to the potential... fundamentals have also improved a lot and earnings per share should be up 150% going into 2026."
Host

The speaker outlines a strong buy case for SoFi (ticker: SOFI), emphasizing its rebound from previous lows, improved fundamentals, and multiple tailwinds including fee-based revenue growth, potential upside from crypto re-entry, and a favorable housing market environment. The call is to buy or average up on dips given its attractive valuation relative to future earnings and margin improvements.

Entry:$25.23
Target:N/A
Horizon:Short-term <3 months
Trade CallBullish
High ConvictionScore: 8.6
Stock IdeaThe Patient InvestorOct 2, 2025