Jerry Romine Stocks
YouTube channel feed (https://www.youtube.com/feeds/videos.xml?channel_id=UCMiJUXvEpHHW5JTnW-ez9EA)
Total Ideas
30
With Returns
16
Equal-Weighted Return
-0.92%
All Ideas (30)
30 TotalIrene Emerges as the Sustainable Winner in AI Infrastructure
"The bottom line, Irene is the only company showing a path to sustainable profit. Coreweave and Nebius are still renting momentum and burning cash. The real moat test is who owns what. A business without ownership is a business built on permission, and when the market tightens, permission gets revoked fast. Irene owns the power. They own the land. They own the liquid cooled data centers, which sets them apart from competitors reliant on leased infrastructure."
The transcript contrasts three AI infrastructure companies and identifies Irene (Irel Limited) as the only firm building lasting value through asset ownership and secure, multi-year contracts, unlike its peers that rely on leased resources, which may not be sustainable when market conditions tighten.
LRCX Swing Trade Setup Amid Volatility and Tightened Margins
"Small shifts now have bigger consequences because expectations are already elevated. This is where weak investors get confused. They see margins above 40% and relax. They stop watching direction. But direction is the whole game. Stocks repric on change, not level. So no, this decreased margin guidance does not break the thesis, but it tightens it. From here, execution has to stay clean. Cost control has to hold. Mix cannot deteriorate fast because when margins stop expanding, the market stops being forgiving. Margins are still strong. The cushion is thinner. Lamb Research only works if you respect volatility and size it like a risk asset. For me, that means I size it small. And Lamb Research is a swing trade when I like the setup."
The speaker outlines that despite strong earnings and solid margins, Lamb Research will require disciplined risk management due to increased sensitivity and volatility in its earnings. The commentary highlights that as margins tighten, the stock demands careful execution and position sizing, leading the speaker to classify it as a swing trade opportunity rather than a safe, buy-and-hold play.
Liquidity Drives Market Movements Amid Economic Uncertainty
"So, you think the market should drop because the economy feels bad? That's flawed logic. You're confusing your wallet with the data. You're looking at gas prices, grocery bills, your boss's budget cuts, and because life feels expensive, you assume stocks should crash. Wrong. The market doesn't care how you feel. It cares where the money flows. That's it. You don't have to like it, but that's the game. And right now, money is flowing back into risk and the stock market."
The speaker challenges the notion that poor economic sentiment should lead to a market crash, emphasizing that actual market moves are driven by liquidity flows rather than individual feelings or headline news. The commentary warns investors against inaction, noting that hesitation may lead them to miss the rapid return of capital into risk assets.
Nvidia: The AI Compute Powerhouse
"Nvidia, let's stop pretending this is complicated. Nvidia built the stack. They control the hardware, the software, and the flow of capital. Their margins are elite. Their capital efficiency is elite. Their dominance is unmatched. And they're not done. CPUs, networking, full platform control — they are turning into the AWS of AI."
The speaker underscores Nvidia's unrivaled position in the AI compute space, highlighting its dominant technology stack, elite margins, and expanding ecosystem. He emphasizes that Nvidia's control over both hardware and software cements its leadership, making it a compelling long-term investment as AI continues to drive demand for compute.
Micron Earnings Spark Trade Call
"Micron just moved out of the watch list and into my long-term candidate territory. Now, is this risk-free? Not even close. If you're thinking about going allin on a stock like this, you're not investing. You're gambling. Micron still operates in a competitive space. Samsung and SKH Highix aren't going away. Demand cycles can change suddenly. But this earnings report changed my view. I used to say I don't buy commodity memory stocks. Now I'm looking at one that's performing like a systems company. Margins, contracts, and performance didn't just meet expectations. They exceeded them."
The speaker outlines a significant earnings turnaround for Micron, emphasizing that the company has transitioned from a commodity DRAM supplier to a structurally strong, systems-oriented business with a real moat. This shift has transformed Micron into a trade call, with the speaker explicitly stating a buy signal as part of a long-term investment strategy, while also noting the inherent risks in a competitive market.
Macro Warning on Rate Cuts and Liquidity Illusions
"Rate cuts make people feel smart. They see stocks go up. They think it's them. It's not. It's liquidity. The Fed isn't cutting because things are great. They're cutting because something's breaking. You just haven't felt it yet. Most people treat rate cuts like free money. Lower borrowing costs, more expansion, bullish momentum. All true. But they forget why rates get cut in the first place. You don't inject morphine into a healthy patient. You do it because something hurts, something deep, something you're trying not to talk about."
The speaker warns that rate cuts are not a sign of a healthy economy, but a reaction to underlying problems. Liquidity is mistakenly credited for driving stock gains when in reality, it masks deeper economic issues. This macro commentary implies that investors should be cautious as the easing measures may simply cover up fundamentals that are breaking down.
Macro Commentary on Volatility and Risk Management
"When the VIX hits 30 or higher, that's when the system triggers a big red warning. This is what shows up on my screen. This is my alert that it's time to act with discipline, not panic. Most people run from the fire. This tells me exactly how to walk towards it with precision, not guesswork. This is how I keep my capital working in calm markets and how I keep my sanity in volatile markets. Because without rules, fear takes over. And fear doesn't care how smart you are. It just wants you to sell."
The speaker emphasizes the importance of a disciplined, systematic approach to risk management in volatile markets. He explains that when the VIX reaches 30 or above, it serves as a clear warning for investors to adjust their exposure and avoid emotional reactions that can lead to poor investment decisions.
Nvidia's Transformation Signals a Must-Buy Opportunity
"If you're still asking whether Nvidia is overvalued, you're already behind. The only question that matters is whether you understand what Nvidia is turning into and what it'll cost you if you don't. This isn't a chipmaker. It's becoming the AWS of AI, the infrastructure layer for a new kind of internet. And once it's in, it doesn't come out. Almost everyone thinks they missed it. That's what makes this so dangerous because missing a breakout is annoying, but missing a monopoly while it's still being built, that's how people stay broke for decades."
The speaker argues that questioning Nvidia's valuation indicates a failure to grasp its transformation from a chipmaker to a dominant, infrastructure-driven force in AI. He emphasizes the structural lock-in and potential long-term advantages, suggesting that investors risk missing out on a rare buying opportunity if they delay.
Trade Call: Load Up on VGT for Tech-Driven Upside
"The Vanguard Information Technology ETF, ticker VGT, delivered a total return of 22.95% over the last 12 months. Expense ratio nice and low, 009%. This is tech, nothing else. Software, chips, hardware, cloud, the entire backbone of the digital economy in one shot. You want exposure to the companies driving AI automation and data infrastructure. This is the hit list. Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Broadcom, Palunteer, Oracle, AMD, it's all in here. I don't use this to balance a portfolio. I use it to concentrate on what's actually producing results. I'm not chasing trades. I'm stacking exposure to the trend that's rewriting the entire economy. If you're going to bet on innovation, don't nibble. Don't spread. Load the right sector and hold. VGT doesn't need an introduction. It needs capital. If you want the upside, this is where you put some money."
The speaker advocates putting capital into VGT, emphasizing its strong performance, low expense ratio, and concentration on the tech sector driving AI and digital transformation. This trade call is driven by the belief that tech is the underlying engine of future growth, and the ETF provides targeted exposure to leading innovators.
Applied Materials: Not a Long-Term Buy but a Swing Trade Opportunity
"What I'm doing right now is this a buying or selling window. This isn't a long-term buy for me. Margins are slipping. Competitive pressure is rising. And the China revenue cliff is still being priced in. That breaks my core criteria for long-term conviction. But I'm watching it for a swing trade. If I see a clean setup with tight risk control, I'll take it because good businesses can still be tradable, even when they're not compounding machines."
The speaker highlights that despite Applied Materials' leadership and technology, there are significant warning signs such as compressing margins, fierce competitive pressures, and a steep decline in China revenue. He clearly states that, as a long-term buy, AMAT no longer meets his criteria, though he remains open to a short-term swing trade if a clean, low-risk setup emerges.
Bullish on NBIS for sustainable growth and margin discipline
"Now the nebiest bullcase revenue up 355% year-over-year to $146 million. Gross margins up 70%. Cost control is real. They signed a $3 billion contract with Meta, which includes platform support and custom model deployment. Nebias, they're not trying to win headlines. They're trying to win the decade. The bottom line, I'm bullish on Nebius."
The speaker highlights Nebias (NBIS) as the stronger investment due to its impressive revenue growth, improving gross margins, and a significant $3 billion contract with Meta that signals product stickiness. This disciplined approach suggests a more sustainable business model compared to its peer, making NBIS an attractive long-term play.
Caution on CRWV amid margin and burn concerns
"The bottom line, I'm bullish on Nebius. I'm cautious on Cororeweave. And I acknowledge Cororeweave has the higher risk and the higher reward. But that reward only matters if they survive long enough to reach it. And if you like Coreweave, just make sure you understand the risk because if they pull it off, the upside could be massive."
The speaker warns investors about Coreweave (CRWV), emphasizing its high risk due to collapsing margins, rising capex, and a lack of a sticky software moat. While Coreweave boasts impressive revenue numbers and a massive contracted backlog, its margin deterioration and high burn rate suggest significant operational vulnerabilities.
AMD: Buying Window with Caution
"So where does that leave us? This stock is not a foundation. It's an option. It's not something you load up on. It's something you size carefully, monitor tightly, and adjust based on performance, not emotion. I'm waiting for the next opening, a reset, a macro pullback, something that lets me enter this name without overpaying for future execution. My thesis remains bullish, but this position will never be oversized."
The speaker explains that despite AMD's strong earnings and strategic moves in AI and data center contracts, its high valuation and execution risks require careful position sizing. They advocate treating AMD as an option play—buying on a pullback rather than loading a core position—emphasizing a disciplined, tactical entry.
Irene: Cautious Buy in a Volatile, High-Reward Play
"So, what am I doing? My thesis is bullish, but I'm not going allin. Not even close. This is a high-risk, highreward swing. The kind you size small, watch closely, and reassess every quarter. If they deliver on their GPU roadmap, this becomes a 10 billion plus AI infrastructure company. If they fall behind, the market won't hesitate to repric them, and that could be brutal. So, right now, it's a buying window, but only for investors who can handle real volatility and know exactly what they're holding."
The speaker presents a trade call for Irene (ticker IRE), describing it as a high-risk, highreward swing trade opportunity. Emphasis is placed on the company's GPU roadmap and the transformative potential of its Microsoft deal, balanced against significant volatility and execution risks. The actionable advice is to take a small, cautious position in the stock given its volatile nature.
High Conviction Long-Term Trade Call on GOOGL via Cash Secured Puts
"So here's what I'm doing. I'm watching Google for entries, and I've been selling cash secured puts until I get the price I want. I want to own this business, but I'm not chasing the chart. If we get weakness, I'll be adding. But let's be real, this isn't risk-free. Google isn't a rocket ship, and it won't print returns just for being in the right space. If they miss on AI, if margin trends reverse or if Gemini stalls out, this could underperform for years."
The speaker outlines a high conviction trade call on GOOGL by selling cash secured puts as a strategy to accumulate shares on weakness. He remains bullish on Google's long-term prospects, particularly driven by its AI infrastructure and overall profitability, while cautioning about execution risks.
Bullish Trade Call on Meta Amid Misunderstood Tax Adjustment
"Meta just dropped 11% on optics. But under the hood, revenue is up 26%, free cash flow over 10.6 billion. AI performance improving, and the balance sheet stacked with 44.4 billion in dry powder. This wasn't a bad quarter. It was one of the best quarters in company history, disguised by a single tax adjustment. And that's why this is a buying window, not because it's cheap, because it's mispriced. The business is getting stronger every quarter. The numbers are trending up across revenue, product usage, and free cash flow. The product is becoming harder to compete with, not easier. That's what I look for, and that's what I bet on."
The speaker offers a trade call on Meta, arguing that despite an 11% drop fueled by a one-time tax adjustment, the underlying business fundamentals are robust. With strong revenue metrics, free cash flow, and AI-driven ad performance, the market overreacted to an accounting quirk. The speaker positions this as a buying opportunity given the mispricing.
Earnings Praise Overshadowed by Structural Cash Flow Risks
"SoFi crushed earnings. No one's denying that. But high-erforming quarters don't erase structural risk. They just cover it up until it doesn't work anymore. Here's what still makes this business vulnerable. First, revenue is concentrated in lending. Over 56% of total revenue still comes from originating loans. That means they're not just exposed to consumer behavior. They're exposed to credit markets, interest rates, and macro volatility. And as we broke down earlier, their levered free cash flow margin is negative 99.7%. For every $1 in revenue, they're losing nearly $1 in real cash after servicing debt. That's not a typo. That's not an opinion. That's the math."
The speaker acknowledges SoFi's record-breaking earnings but emphasizes that the underlying business is vulnerable due to its heavy reliance on lending and a severely negative levered free cash flow margin. This commentary highlights structural risks that are not immediately evident in headline figures, cautioning investors about the sustainability of the business model.
Conditional Swing Trade Setup on SoFi
"Here's what I'm doing. I'm not investing long-term until I see true sustainable positive free cash flow. not adjusted a beta, not non-GAAP net income, not financial gymnastics, but I am watching for a swing trade setup. If the chart gives me the right signal, I'll trade it. I'm not interested in holding this while hoping the risk unwinds itself because SoFi might build something massive or it might break under its own weight."
The speaker explains that despite an impressive earnings report, he will refrain from a long-term investment in SoFi until there is a confirmed turnaround in free cash flow. Instead, he is prepared to execute a swing trade if technical signals line up, emphasizing caution due to underlying financial risks.
Bullish Trade Call on Applovin
"So, is Apploven a long-term buy or just a hot trade? Let's call it what it is. Most investors buying the stock have no idea what they're holding. They're chasing momentum, not understanding the moat. And that's why I'm looking to buy the stock and plan on selling a cash secured put today. This is my real portfolio. I'm up 76.7% year-to-date."
The speaker outlines a bullish trade call on Apploving (ticker A), emphasizing the company's strong execution, innovative ad-tech platform, and superior margins. He criticizes the market's misinterpretation and indicates that selling a cash secured put reflects a strategic, data-driven portfolio move.
Long Trade on GE Aerospace Based on Strong Earnings and Momentum
"I didn't buy GE because it's cheap. I bought it because the quarter was strong, the setup was clean, and the riskreward was impressive. That's what I wait for. On Friday, I sent out a trade alert when I bought GE. Not because I'm guessing, because it showed up on my brand new post-earnings hottock list. And that list is fire. It filters for highquality businesses with monster quarters, clean technicals, and post-earnings bullishness. GE popped. I was ready. This wasn't a buy the dip play. It wasn't a hype spike. It was a slow, steady, post-earnings grind into a momentum squeeze backed by expanding margins and rising free cash flow. The kind of setup I absolutely love."
The speaker details a trade call for GE Aerospace, emphasizing its strong post-earnings performance, clean technical setup, and robust recurring cash flow from engine servicing, making it a high conviction long position.
Avoid Exposure; Fundamentals Deteriorating
"I sold my Tesla positions back in January when the fundamentals started breaking down, margin shrinking, competition rising, and the story getting louder than the numbers. Since then, I've made better returns in companies with stronger margins and clearer growth. I'm staying out for now. I want to see real margin recovery, real cost discipline, and proof that the energy and AI bets can scale profitably. Until then, I'm watching, not buying. If you're holding Tesla long-term, fine, but it should be a small slice of a diversified portfolio, not the centerpiece, because this kind of stock doesn't crash gently. It snaps when sentiment flips."
The speaker explicitly notes that they sold their Tesla positions due to deteriorating fundamentals such as shrinking margins, rising costs, and intensifying competition. They advise investors to avoid allocating significant capital to Tesla until there is clear evidence of margin recovery and cost discipline. The recommendation is to remain cautious with Tesla, limiting exposure despite its profitability and cash reserves.
Nvidia's Long-Term Dominance and Growth Commentary
"s talk about the real question here. Is Nvidia still a good long-term investment? Let"
The speaker provides a balanced commentary on Nvidia's long-term potential by highlighting its dominant market position, superior financial metrics, and strategic moat, while also acknowledging inherent risks such as reliance on TSMC and geopolitical factors.
Nvidia Buy Setup on Consolidation and Momentum Reset
"Now, let's break it down. First, the $176 level. That's not just a random number. It's where the majority of volume has occurred over the last 6 months. Big money has been loading up right there. Nvidia has built a massive support level at 176, and currently, we're consolidating around $182, which makes the risk low and the upside wide open. When you get all three at once, you don't hesitate. You execute. Because the market doesn't reward opinions, it rewards positioning."
The speaker outlines a strong buying opportunity for Nvidia, emphasizing a key support level at $176 and consolidation near $182. The analysis cites heavy volume buildup and a momentum squeeze that signals an exceptional risk-to-reward setup, prompting immediate action.
TSMC Valuation Misunderstood Due to Geopolitical Bias
"TSMC isn\"t cheap because it\"s weak. It\"s cheap because people don\"t know how to price dominance under political pressure. And the longer that misunderstanding exists, the more upside you get. This isn\"t a momentum stock. This is a control asset. And when investors finally figure that out, they stop treating it like a trade and start treating it like infrastructure."
The speaker argues that TSMC is undervalued not due to any operational weakness but because investors misprice its dominance amid geopolitical fears. They highlight that as the market corrects this misunderstanding, the stock's upside could be significant, making it more of an infrastructure play than a typical cyclical semiconductor.
Buy TSMC on Indicator Confirmation
"So, what am I doing right now? TSMC is pulling back, not because the business is broken, but because the market is uncertain. That's the gap real investors live in. I'm watching, waiting, and when the indicators flash green, I'm buying. Small size, core position, long hold. This is not a trade. It's a long-term bet on the infrastructure behind AI."
The speaker outlines a strategy to buy TSMC when technical indicators confirm market compression, positioning the stock as a long-term infrastructure play in the midst of geopolitical undervaluation. The emphasis is on waiting for confirmation rather than chasing short-term green candles.
Company Commentary: Distorted Financials and Hidden Risks
"And heres the bare case. Revenue is distorted. Cash flow is deeply negative. Profit is driven by unrealized Bitcoin gains and isnt coming from real operations. The AI side isnt generating genuine revenue yet, and key contracts are missing from the books because of accounting tweaks. That lack of transparency makes it hard to value the business and raises the risk of being completely wrong. This shell game between real growth and nothing shows why most investors miss the hidden dangers in the headline numbers."
The speaker provides a detailed commentary on the companys financials, noting that while headline figures appear impressive, underlying financial distortions and hidden risks persist. Revenue numbers are distorted with significant non-operational profit driven by unrealized Bitcoin gains. Additionally, the AI segment has yet to produce real revenue, and key contracts are obscured by accounting methods, increasing valuation risk.
Nvidia Trade Call with Detailed Risk Management
"And the last stock we want to look at today is going to be Nvidia. And I want to jump right over here to our risk management bar. So, let's say your account is $10,000. You want to risk no more than 5%, which is $500. So, the question is, will I risk $38 and buy three shares for $567? This $38 comes from where you'd put your trail stop, and that trail stop is 7%. Our target price would be 208.41, risk-to-reward 1.5, and our profit per share would be $19.13. So, if you're a new or seasoned investor, you can set this up, and all of the thinking is almost done for you right here. Looking at the chart, we can see we've got major support right here coming in around $176. So, potential buy points would be at the 176 or if it bounces off this 20-day EMA. And we can also be looking for buy signals. And one thing to notice here, notice how it's gone sideways here for almost 2 months. Before, we had all kinds of buy signals. Well, my indicators are doing all of the work for us."
The speaker provides an explicit trade call for Nvidia, detailing a systematic approach to risk management and entry points. He outlines specific metrics including a target price of 208.41, a trail stop of 7% ($38 risk), a risk-to-reward ratio of 1.5, and potential support at $176. The explanation emphasizes using technical indicators to time entries and exits, aiming for a disciplined, rule-based strategy.
Conditional Trade Outlook on AMD Amid Transformational OpenAI Deal
"So, here's the bottom line. If AMD hits their numbers, grows margin, and locks in ecosystem support, this will be one of the best performing tech stocks of the next decade. But they don't have a moat yet. They're building one on the fly. This is not a stock you buy and forget. This is one you watch closely. It's execution that separates winners from headlines."
The speaker highlights how AMD's new OpenAI deal transforms its future revenue trajectory by converting a mere chip sale into a strategic partnership. While underscoring the potential for AMD to become a top-performing tech stock if it executes successfully, he cautions that the current high valuation (PE 117) and unproven ecosystem moat make the investment conditional, suggesting a watchful approach for any pullback before a trade is initiated.
Worrisome Backlog Concentration and Deteriorating Financials
"Now, here\'s where most people get this wrong. They look at the cash and assume strength. But raising money doesn\'t fix execution. It just delays judgment... And when you see a company torch $200 million in non-cash charges, write off $70.6 million in goodwill, and face a concentrated $380 million backlog mostly in government work, it\'s a clear signal that the fundamentals are deteriorating."
The commentary highlights significant risks for BigBear.ai, including a heavily concentrated government backlog that could rapidly evaporate due to contract disruptions, along with worsening margins and massive non-cash charges. This paints a picture of a company that has bought time with cash but has not turned around its operational challenges.
Avoid Buying BigBear.ai Until Fundamentals Improve
"So, for me, this isn\'t a position. Not until I see revenue stabilize, margins expand, and execution start matching the story. My thesis on Big Bear AI right now is neutral with elevated downside risk."
The speaker advises against taking a position in BigBear.ai (BBAI) at this time due to declining revenues, shrinking margins, and an execution gap despite having a record cash balance. The recommendation is to avoid buying until the company demonstrates a turnaround in operational performance.