Chit Chat Stocks Podcast
YouTube channel feed (https://www.youtube.com/feeds/videos.xml?channel_id=UCG5Ni-SI-jyrEsoNUhqftNQ)
Total Ideas
36
With Returns
13
Equal-Weighted Return
-0.57%
All Ideas (36)
36 TotalBullish on Turning Point Brands as the Pure Play for Nicotine Pouches
"Stock price is right around $100 a share. So on a high level thesis, what we're looking at is a super cycle for—or a super trend, a mega trend—for a new consumer product. And this product is both addicting, very cheap to manufacture, and very high margin. We have a lot of different tailwinds all acting at once. Not only do you get the traditional smoking cohort, but you also have a new cohort coming in, which gives this product endless growth potential. Turning Point Brands is by far the best way to play the pouch thesis."
The speaker highlights Turning Point Brands as a top investment play due to its strong positioning in the nicotine pouch market. Emphasizing the company's ability to capitalize on both traditional smokers and a new user cohort, he outlines tailwinds from cost-effective manufacturing and high margins. The commentary stresses that TPB is uniquely positioned to benefit from a consumer super cycle, making it an attractive long-term growth opportunity.
Palantir Overvaluation Suggests Funding Short
"Yeah, my second prediction was that Palunteer would get cut in half. And I could not have been more wrong. The stock finished up 157% in 2025 so far, but I still think it's going to be a fantastic funding short over the next decade just given the absurd valuation. I'm calling this the Palunteer zone—when a stock hits 50 to 100 times sales, it's time to consider a short."
The speaker reflects on his prediction regarding Palantir (noted as Palunteer) and, despite his forecast of a 50% drop proving wrong, maintains a strong conviction that the stock's excessively high price-to-sales multiples make it an attractive candidate for a funding short over the next decade.
Short Call on PLTR Due to Extreme Valuation
"My short Palantir really comes down to a few reasons. First, this is one that you can't just solely base a short position on is valuation. But with this one, it's pretty damn extreme. I've called it the most overvalued stock ever; the stock trades at over a hundred times trailing sales — about 113 as of this writing. Look, this is going to be a massive headwind, especially with shareholder dilution coming down the pipeline. And frankly, what helps is that right now they have a buyback to nowhere. They're buying back stock at these levels, which goes to show the unsustainable nature of its current valuation."
The speaker outlines a short trade call on Palantir (represented by the ticker PLTR) citing extreme overvaluation at approximately 113x trailing sales and significant dilution risks from a buyback program that adds little shareholder value. The commentary also positions this short as a hedge in a potential market downturn.
Alphabet's Strategic Acquisition of Intersect
"Alphabet announced that they're acquiring Intersect for $4.75 billion in cash, assuming its debt as well. Intersect develops and operates massive renewable energy plants, primarily solar and wind integrated with battery storage, and specializes in data parks for high-capacity data centers. Local power grids in the US are increasingly strained by AI demand, so owning a developer enables Alphabet to build its own generation capacity rather than waiting on utilities."
Ryan discusses Alphabet's acquisition of Intersect as a strategic move to mitigate local power grid strain driven by rising AI demand. The acquisition is seen as a way for Alphabet to secure renewable energy capabilities for its data centers, reflecting a proactive approach to future capital expenditure and infrastructure needs.
Concerning Nike Earnings and Negative Decade Returns
"So, if I were a shareholder here, I would honestly be pretty concerned. I pulled this stat up because it kind of blew my mind. If you invested $10,000 in Nike 10 years ago, today you would have $9,860. There they have had negative returns for a decade. This is the premier apparel brand and yet, after a year of big declines and discounting, you would expect to see some growth."
Ryan expresses serious concerns about Nike's performance, highlighting a decade of negative returns despite its brand prestige. His analysis points to a disconnect between expectations from a premier brand and the reality of stagnant growth, suggesting caution for investors.
Short Intel Out of Spite
"I think we need to short Intel out of spite. We fixed it. We're using my phone. It actually works quite wonderfully."
Brett expresses a contrarian trade call to short Intel, triggered by technical frustrations. His brief remark suggests a willingness to act on what he perceives as an opportunity without deeper fundamental analysis.
Snap's New Monetization Approach Through Cloud Storage
"Yeah, absolutely. So, I mean, let's just start out by saying this has been an awful business for the entire existence of it on the public markets. It has done nothing but destroy shareholder capital. Management is terrible. SBC is through the roof, right? I'm not pitching this as like, oh, this is some misunderstood future prospect. The thesis relies on an ultimatum where Snap's 500 million daily active users, who likely have over 5 gigabytes of stored content, must either delete their data or pay $2 a month. Even if only 10% subscribe, it instantly flips Snap into profitability. I remain cautious, but this could be an interesting revenue stream."
Arya criticizes Snap's historical performance and high operating costs but highlights its new initiative to monetize user-stored content by charging a monthly fee. He notes that if even a small percentage of the large user base converts, Snap could see a notable improvement in profitability, although he remains cautious about its overall prospects.
Coupang's Resilient Moat Despite Data Breach Concerns
"Do you want a data leak at your business? No. Do you want it to be in one of your geopolitical rivals to create a whole political scandal? No. Do you want to get fined $500 million? No. But at the end of the day, Kong's mode, I think, is still very, very wide. They trade at 3.8 times trailing gross profit when gross profits are growing at close to 20 to 25% year-over-year, and they're showing pretty good signs of operating leverage. I nibbled a bit on the stock this week. Maybe even a bit more than a nibble. Maybe a full bite of adding to the position."
Brett outlines the significant risks posed by a recent data breach and potential regulatory fines, but he believes the company's wide moat, attractive valuation multiples, and strong operating leverage present a compelling buying opportunity in the near-term.
Uber's Dominant Network vs. AV Disruption Fears
"Yeah, absolutely. Um, so I mean we could we could start I mean in all honesty we could be spending the entire podcast on this. So I'll try to keep it somewhat brief. Uh but in general you know the business is is a very dominant network effect business. It has a verb mode. Uh I think we've all seen the free cash flow chart just go up and to the right lock step without failure. Uh it's it's a fundamentally great business and it's been dragged down by this uh sort of AV fear right. And um I'm on I'm I'm of the belief that uh very wrongfully it's been it's been dragged down over this and there's a lot more implications that people generally don't consider um when kind of just chalking it up. Oh, it's uh Tesla roadkill or it's um you know goo Google's roadkill and you know Whimo is going to come around and um sure it doesn't maybe look like that right now but this is just like Blockbuster in 2007 when Netflix came out or just like uh Nokia or Blackberry when the iPhone came out."
Arya emphasizes that while Uber's dominant network and strong free cash flow illustrate its robust business model, the market's overblown fears of autonomous vehicle disruption may be unfairly weighing down its valuation. He compares the potential slow erosion of Uber's moat to historical disruptions, suggesting that replicating Uber's scale is an enormous challenge for any competitor.
CAP undervalued amid regulatory easing in Argentina
"Yeah, so Malay has been very good for CAP, which was to be expected. He formerly was the chief economist for Corporation America, which is the parent company of the airport company. So deregulation was near and dear to him since taking office. He's broken up Argentina to state-run airline, as ridiculous as that sounds, in the year 2025. But he broke that up. He's let foreign airlines come in to compete. He's let the budget airlines pretty much operate however they want without restriction. So you have far more local competition, lower prices, so you get more more flights obviously. And then just yeah, more broadly, anything that attracts more foreign capital and particularly more foreign investors coming through to visit the region. Good for air traffic, good for cargo. Cargo business is up a lot now that kind of more going on with the economy."
The speaker explains that regulatory reforms under Malay have significantly benefited CAP. By breaking up the state-run airline and easing restrictions for foreign and budget carriers, the environment now supports increased competition, lower fares, and a higher volume of flights. This boosts both passenger and cargo traffic and attracts foreign investment, suggesting that CAP is trading at a discount and has room to outperform over the next couple of years.
Missed American Express Opportunity in Late 2023
"First, American Express. This one I was pounding the table on in late 2023 or excuse me, late October of 2023. Stock was at $150 or below. I believe PE was at like 13. We were winding down our investment fund and moving our money back into our personal portfolios. I didn't buy then, and today we're at $362 a share plus dividends. I missed a great opportunity to hop on a never sell train."
The speaker expresses regret over not buying American Express at an attractive valuation around $150 in late October 2023 when the PE was around 13. The stock has since soared to $362, highlighting a missed bullish trade opportunity.
Management Excellence and Prudent Capital Allocation
"I think they're exemplary. The more that I read about them, the more that I like them. They started the business for a good reason. They saw an opportunity to help the people of Brazil. What's even more impressive is that David is only 46, so he's still really young and has a long way to go with the company. A few years ago, he was offered a $300 million pay package and he turned it down, choosing instead to reinvest in the business and take care of his employees."
Dave Ahern commends New Bank's management team and founder David, highlighting his youthful drive, disciplined capital allocation, and commitment to reinvesting in the company rather than taking excessive compensation.
New Bank's Expansion in Latin America Shows Bullish Growth Potential
"Yeah. Yeah. I wholeheartedly believe they will be able to get to get there. They're executing the exact same playbook that they did in Brazil. They're targeting the unbanked of Mexico and they're going after those people that just don't have access to banking, whether it's because of what I mentioned earlier, not having a bank or not having access to a bank, a car, transportation, any of those kinds of things. I don't see any reason why they won't be able to have the same similar success in Mexico that they've had in Brazil. Maybe not to this full extent, but I think they will have it."
Dave Ahern expresses strong confidence in New Bank's strategy to replicate its Brazilian success in Mexico by targeting the unbanked population, even amid rising competition. He believes the digital-first approach and proven playbook will continue driving growth in the region.
Quanta Services (PWR) Demonstrates Strong Value Proposition
"One company that I think all of my holdings offer a good value proposition, but one I'll just call out is, um, it's in the portfolio, Quanta Services, ticker PWR. So Bloomberg Green published two articles a few months ago discussing the two primary bottlenecks preventing faster buildout of electrical infrastructure in the US and Europe – transformers and skilled craft labor. What did he do? He bought a line college and made at least two acquisitions of transformers manufacturing companies. I read a note from Bernstein saying that in a short period of time through these acquisitions, Quanta now controls 20% of transformer manufacturing in the US, so he solved both bottlenecks."
John highlights Quanta Services' strategic moves to overcome key bottlenecks in the electrical infrastructure space. By acquiring assets in transformer manufacturing and addressing labor shortages through a trade school acquisition, Quanta has bolstered its value proposition and now controls roughly 20% of US transformer production.
Potential Buying Opportunity in Ferrari (RACE)
"I'll give you an example today, the day we're recording this. Um Ferrari stock is down like 14 or 15%. And um it's not a stock I own. It's not a stock in the portfolio. I don't own it per personally. Um, but I can't act on it today in the portfolio if I wanted to because I haven't done enough research on it. I understand that Ferrari is a, you know, very unique auto maker, right? I understand that it has an elevated luxury brand and very closely controls supply. Even though I think today would be a good buying opportunity based on what I know at this point, I haven't run it through the checklist yet."
John discusses Ferrari stock being down 14-15% and characterized by its unique luxury brand and controlled supply. He considers it a potential buying opportunity, though he remains cautious by noting that he hasn't completed his full research.
Google's Full-Stack Advantage Makes It the Top AI Investment Pick
"At at this point, my number one is Google. And the reason is we talked about it. It has the full stack and I think the TPUs are something which will be Google's most important asset to date and they have they have a lot of assets. So that's saying a lot, because they're already showing us that they can serve a lot of inference on scale which nobody else can and they don't have to raise trillions. I think the moment for Google is quite there and they're not yet priced because of the risk of AI disrupt, but even with search disruption, the AI market is a lot bigger than just search."
The guest explicitly picks Google as his top trade call within the AI race, emphasizing its fully integrated technology stack, advanced TPUs, and strong positioning in ad monetization, which together offer a compelling case for long-term investment.
Company Commentary: Bangalore Airport IPO as a Catalyst for Repricing
"So it's in the NAV just to clarify they have it's in the books for 2.6 billion, I think it's worth more than four. But if you think longer term, like really longer term, it could be worth so much more. I think you're talking about 110 million people per year, and if you just do the math, 110 times 100 gets to 10 billion. I don't think in this excessively hyped Indian stock market this is crazy; 4 billion is conservative. I think you can get to five or six on 4 billion, if you assume that the current share price is 17 and the NAV is 21."
Michael Fritzell provides a valuation commentary on Fairfax India, emphasizing that the market is undervaluing its net asset value. He explains that if the company, largely driven by the Bangalore International Airport asset, trades at around 4 billion, the share price could reprice from its current levels ($17, NAV $21) to around $32 per share, making the upcoming airport IPO a critical catalyst.
Management Compensation Raises Concerns at Yelp
"So Jeremy Stppleman is still the CEO, the co-founder from 20 years ago, and I think he's done a good job navigating the business towards services. However, as I was reading the proxy, I found myself getting increasingly annoyed. Yelp's management team has a base salary, annual cash incentives, and performance-based stock bonuses tied to revenue and relative return metrics. I was particularly frustrated to see that the co-founder and CEO, who owns 6.3% of the company, is taking an extra $10 million in annual stock compensation. This seems unnecessary given he could benefit directly from share price appreciation."
Ryan acknowledges CEO Jeremy Stppleman's role in pivoting Yelp towards a stronger services model, but he criticizes the management compensation structure. He is especially troubled by the extra $10 million in stock compensation awarded to the CEO despite his significant ownership, suggesting it may not align with shareholder interests.
Compelling Starter Buy for Yelp
"Okay, despite the disappointments with the proxy statement, I am still very compelled by the valuation. I think I'm going to buy some shares. It's going to be a starter position. And the two metrics I'm tracking to potentially raise my position sizing is whether I am right about the services business. Because if they have a unique method of approaching a valuable customer group, this could be a much bigger business and you're going to get the benefit of revenue growth plus operating margin expansion plus either multiple rerating or huge stock buybacks which is a recipe for great returns. You can keep that going to help not only with that upside but with the downside protection as well."
Ryan expresses a strong bullish stance on Yelp, indicating a starter position buy. His rationale is based on the company's attractive valuation, potential revenue growth and operating margin expansion driven by its expanding services segment, and the benefit of share buybacks as downside protection.
Company Commentary: Caution on United Healthcare as a Potential Value Trap
"First one. United Healthcare. Now this is not one I thought you would know. I don't think either of us has ever have ever ever owned this. People are bullish. Bergkshire is clearly bullish because of the downturn this year in the whole ACA market. And I think you could be walking into a value trap here by saying, "Oh, Buffett bought it." Probably not even him. Berkshire bought it. It's cheap. The healthcare industry is going to just be entrenched forever and ever and ever. And I think you could be walking into picking up some pennies in front of the steamroller."
In this segment, the speaker discusses United Healthcare, cautioning that despite its cheap-looking valuation and bullish endorsements from Berkshire, investors could be buying into a value trap. The commentary centers on structural issues in the healthcare sector and concerns that past performance may not translate into future growth, warning investors against complacency.
Trade Call: Short Sirius XM Due to Structural Decline
"Alright, here's my last one. And I think we'll be on the exact same side of the fence here. I'll read off some multiples for you first. EV to free cash flow 16 times, dividend yield of almost 4%. The company which I know not not that cheap. The company is Sirius XM. Oh yeah. Value. This is a dying company. Hate to say it's insane that it's tra It's not even a value trap. It's just a short. Honestly, this is this going to be your first short ever? It is so."
Brett issues a clear sell directive by calling for a short position on Sirius XM. He highlights high valuation multiples and describes the company's deteriorating fundamentals. His remarks underscore the structural challenges Sirius XM faces, including a declining subscriber base and an outdated business model that struggles to attract younger consumers.
Trade Call: Buy Crocs (CROX) for Brand Revitalization and Buyback Yield
"there are a lot of stocks in big draw downs and this is one of them. I actually don't have the exact numbers here. It's a company here that we've talked about and I'm breaking one of my rules on investing in apparel. I am buying Crocs and I listed in the Substack chat. I just wrote out a little I didn't do a full newsletter. I think I'm going to do one here shortly on the company and why I'm buying. I don't know the exact allocation. Again, I'll do that in the newsletter which the link will be directly in the show notes. I just have a couple of lists of what made me want to buy a little bit of an invest versus then investigate scenario where I've followed the company for many years but I don't have like my full-on model and write up and thoughts fleshed out."
Brett unveils an actionable trade call to buy Crocs (CROX) despite typically avoiding apparel stocks. He cites brand revitalization efforts, strategic ambassador partnerships, and strong buyback yields as key catalysts. Although he has not detailed his full allocation or long-term model, his invest-versus-investigate approach suggests high conviction in the turnaround story.
Embracing Late Entry in Thematic Trades (Nvidia Example)
"I have one main lesson. It is to not be afraid of being late on a bet. I think an example for investing in stocks is don7t be afraid of investing in a thematic stock if you believe there7s a good management team, a strong competitive advantage, and a self-reinforcing economic trend such as the AI revolution. In early 2023, despite concerns of a forming bubble, the fundamentals of Nvidia proved so compelling that missing the initial entry became a missed opportunity."
This insight uses Nvidia as a case study to illustrate that investors should not shy away from joining a theme late if the company exhibits strong fundamentals and market momentum. The discussion suggests that even when valuations attract caution, exploring the underlying competitive advantages and growth catalysts can justify taking a position.
Texas Stock Exchange Approval: A Moat Test for US Listings?
"The Texas Stock Exchange received SEC approval to operate as an exchange, aiming to reverse the long decline in US public companies by reducing listing burdens. With backing from heavyweights like BlackRock, Schwab, and Citadel, it could be a real test of the duopoly's moat."
The podcast covers the new Texas Stock Exchange which recently earned SEC approval. The discussion centers around its potential to ease burdens on public companies and challenge the entrenched positions of NYSE and NASDAQ. With institutional backing from major players, it is seen as a noteworthy development though its immediate impact is likely limited.
Electronic Arts Leveraged Buyout: A Big Deal With Mixed Gaming Tailwinds
"This is a $55 billion deal — the largest levered buyout ever, with a 25% premium to EA share price. Despite EA\'s great franchises, I would throw it in the too hard pile because gaming has become relentlessly competitive and cash flow remains stubbornly low."
The discussion turns to EA and its leveraged buyout, which is being executed at a premium. While EA boasts a legacy of blockbuster franchises, competitive pressures and digital transition challenges have hindered margin expansion and free cash flow. The panel acknowledges that the deal was structured as a premium exit but sees gaming tailwinds as mixed.
Interactive Brokers: A Rare, Never-Sell Hold Despite High P/E
"I bought Interactive Brokers earlier this year and even though its PE is high at 36, I see it as an incredible business. Their relentless cost efficiencies and the founder\'s enduring philosophy make it a classic never sell stock in my portfolio."
Interactive Brokers is highlighted as a prime example of a never-sell stock. Despite trading at a high multiple, the panel emphasizes its strong cost efficiencies, management quality, and long-term durability, which justify holding the stock through market cycles.
Avoid Nike: Earnings Struggles & Margin Pressures Deter Long-Term Appeal
"Nike reported constant currency revenue growth of minus 1% and its worst gross margin in 20 years. Even if you combine their footwear competitors, I would say, 'no interest whatsoever' in Nike. It\'s difficult to see a 10x move given their size and pricing issues."
The speakers analyze Nike\'s recent earnings where weak same-store sales and margin compression were key issues. With competitive pressures from emerging brands and a high valuation (around 30x earnings), the panel expresses a clear trade call to avoid or trim exposure to Nike, arguing that there is insufficient risk premium for the premium price investors pay.
Portillos: Quality Value Story Hinged on Marketing and Operational Execution
"I believe most of Portillos' problems stemmed from not having a chief marketing officer, and now that they have hired a new CMO with a strong background, the narrative is changing. If they stick to their everyday value approach without jacking up prices, the fanatic customer base and impressive per-location economics suggest the stock could see a dramatic rerating from a low price-to-sales multiple to something higher as operational efficiency and scale improve."
The guest provides insightful company-specific commentary on Portillos. He details the operational strengths of the restaurant chain including high revenue per location, exceptional customer net promoter scores, and robust cash flow fundamentals even in a down market. The commentary is nuanced with a focus on the importance of marketing; he suggests that the lack of a CMO was a primary shortcoming that has now been addressed. While the stock is burdened by near-term growth capex and experimental initiatives, the fundamentals and the strong brand may enable an eventual rerating. The risk factor is clearly outlined: should management deviate from the value proposition by increasing prices aggressively, the investment thesis could quickly sour.
Opendoor (OPEN) Trade Call: Buy & Hold for Asymmetric Upside
"I'm buying Open Door stock knowing it could be a zero. But if these guys, led by a seasoned team and a new CEO with rapid iteration, manage to disrupt the $2 trillion housing market even with just a 20% chance of success, then the upside from a $6 billion market cap to potentially a 200-billion or even a trillion-dollar company makes this a flip of the coin worth betting on."
The guest clearly outlines an actionable trade idea for Open Door (OPEN). He explains that despite the inherent risk (a 20% success probability), the potential upside is significant if the company can successfully develop its technology platform to disrupt the housing market. His portfolio allocation has grown from a modest 1% (at a previous cost basis) to 15% of his account, indicating high conviction in his bullish outlook. He emphasizes the asymmetry of risk-reward and advises against shorting the stock despite volatility and meme stock behavior. The trade is time-sensitive with expectations for notable gains by May when catalysts related to product rollouts and macro tailwinds (rate cuts) may materialize.
Tribute to Constellation Software and Mark Leonard's Legacy
"Constellation Software, under the leadership of Mark Leonard, delivered a total return of 33.6% per annum since 2006 with free cash flow per share compounding at 27% annually. Mark\"s prudent capital allocation and limited dilution have built generational wealth for its shareholders, exemplifying one of the best capital allocators in modern history."
A tribute is paid to the long-term performance of Constellation Software as Mark Leonard steps down due to health reasons. The commentary underscores the company\"s stellar historical returns, disciplined share management, and the creation of generational value.
Yelp as the Small Cap of the Week with a Revitalized Business Model
"Yelp, with a market cap of just under $2 billion and a revenue growth rate of 26% since 2010, has transformed its business by shifting focus from restaurants to services like plumbing and legal, while boosting its operating profit from -$40 million to $183 million. Its 12% buyback yield further evidences its capital discipline."
Yelp is spotlighted as a turnaround small cap with impressive growth and operational improvements. Its evolving revenue mix and strong share repurchase program suggest an undervalued opportunity amid industry headwinds in restaurant advertising.
Compass and the Real Estate Rollup as a Disruptive Play
"Compass is merging with a legacy brokerage to form an entity with roughly 340,000 real estate professionals, aiming to integrate these under its cloud-based platform and promote private listings. This bold move could disrupt platforms like Zillow and OpenDoor significantly."
Compass is recognized for its strategic merger to consolidate legacy brokerages under its tech platform, potentially disrupting traditional MLS systems and imposing pressure on incumbent players like Zillow. The deal is seen as transformative for the residential real estate market.
Airbnb's Prospects as a Future Share Cannibal
"Airbnb is discussed as a company that, similar to Booking Holdings in the past, may continue buying back stock. Despite a current buyback yield of around 5.5% and a modest annual share reduction, there is potential for acceleration once the stock is in a drawn down state."
Airbnb is considered a viable pick for share cannibalism owing to its strong cash flow dynamics and potential for accelerated buybacks if the valuation becomes more attractive, keeping in mind risks of a multiple rerating.
Dropbox: The Underdog with Consistent Buybacks Amid Growth Concerns
"Dropbox has been ridiculed for years, much like AutoZone once was, yet it has reduced its shares outstanding at an 8.7% annual rate and improved its EPS. However, there are concerns about its ability to drive top-line growth."
Dropbox is portrayed as a classic share cannibal that has delivered consistent EPS improvements via buybacks despite headwinds in revenue growth. The tone is cautious, highlighting the risks in its growth profile even as the capital allocation strategy remains solid.
MGM Resorts as a Robust Share Cannibal Pick
"MGM Resorts International, trading at a market cap of roughly $9.44 billion and a price-to-free cash flow of 7.3x, has reduced its shares outstanding by about 52.5% over the past years. Despite headwinds on casino spending, the strong brand and solid buyback yield make it compelling."
MGM is presented as a strong candidate with impressive historical share reduction (over 50% cumulative reduction) and a cheap valuation driven by its buyback yield. The brand strength and potential catalysts in its core markets support a bullish view.
Adobe as a Future Share Cannibal Candidate
"My number one company is Adobe. They haven\"t been a historical share cannibal but recently have ramped up buybacks, achieving around a 7-8% buyback yield, while continuing to produce approximately 10% revenue growth each quarter. The risk remains if management shifts focus away from buybacks."
Adobe is highlighted as an unconventional pick among future share cannibals due to its recent accelerated share buyback program and consistent revenue growth. The commentary notes potential risk if the strategy changes.