The Joseph Carlson Show
A show about stocks, money, and business news. Joseph transparently shares investing strategy with a million dollar stock portfolio.
Total Ideas
33
With Returns
32
Equal-Weighted Return
+0.69%
All Ideas (33)
33 Total
Trade Call & Commentary on Google
"Google's still a buy today, but amongst other great companies. I have no thoughts of selling it, and I feel like it's in a great position."
The speaker provides a compelling commentary on Google's strong AI leadership and diversified business model. Despite its high valuation, he recommends remaining invested in Google, citing robust competitive advantages and attractive fundamentals.
Trade Call & Commentary on Uber
"if that happens, this is a fantastic buy today. The stock could double over the next five to 10 years."
The speaker outlines Uber's dynamic marketplace model and notes that concerns over autonomous vehicles are overblown. He asserts that Uber stands to benefit from AV partnerships and robust demand dynamics, making it an attractive buy for long-term investors.
Trade Call & Commentary on Spotify
"Now I'll say Spotify is a company I'm seriously considering. I really just want to own it. When I look at Spotify, I see a company now at $140 billion. And yes, it's far more expensive than it was a couple of years ago. And that anchoring bias can be very strong."
The speaker expresses a strong conviction to add to his position in Spotify. He highlights the company's recent win against Apple on direct billing, its strong fundamentals with impressive earnings growth, and positions it as a long-term hold despite its high valuation.
Buy Adobe on the Back of Cheap Valuation and Aggressive Buybacks
"Adobe is trading at roughly half the price. At a 15 P-E ratio and a 6% free cash flow yield, this company is uniquely cheap in an expensive market. ... As the valuation falls, Adobe buys back more."
Despite concerns over competitive pressures from newer digital tools, Adobe is presented as an attractive investment due to its low valuation metrics compared to peers and aggressive share buybacks. The host argues that its discounted PE and improving free cash flow yield make it a compelling buy.
Reaffirm Buy on Amazon Despite Flat 2025 Performance
"This is one that I still believe is a buy, which is Amazon. I bought a lot of the company in 2022 when there was the big sell-off."
The host reaffirms his bullish stance on Amazon, pointing out that even though the stock has been flat in 2025, its underlying business fundamentals like AWS growth and impressive free cash flow expansion make it a strong long-term secular compounder.
Duolingo Expands Into Chess to Boost Engagement
"Duolingo is pushing full steam ahead in chess... Soon you'll be able to play against other learners. I believe this represents a meaningful growth path for the company."
The host discusses Duolingo's new initiative to integrate a chess platform featuring player-versus-player matchups and enhanced engagement tools. This move is seen as a strategy to drive user growth and retention, potentially translating into improved revenue. The host remains invested despite short-term volatility, emphasizing the long-term value in broadening the user base.
Trade Call: Avoid New Buys in Costco Due to Elevated Valuation
"I've held Costco for years... but I'm not buying it today because of the higher PE ratio. I bought it at a trailing PE of 40 and now it's at 55."
The host outlines his personal trading decision regarding Costco. Despite holding a profitable position from a previous purchase, he advises against initiating new buys at current levels because Costco's valuation has significantly increased (from a trailing PE of 40 to 55), making it less attractive for additional entry.
NVIDIA Valuation Attractive Relative to Retail Peers
"NVIDIA to me is still a bargain at 26 times. It's cheaper than Costco and Walmart, which are close to 50 times forward earnings."
The host highlights that NVIDIA is trading at a forward PE of 26, which is considerably lower than traditional retail companies like Costco and Walmart. This comparison underscores NVIDIA's attractive valuation in the current market context, suggesting it is a buyable bargain in the AI-driven tech space.
Optimistic Outlook for Netflix with 20% Upside Potential
"Mark Mahaney explains his thesis on Netflix and why he believes this stock is going to rise 20% from a share price of $1,200 per share... if you don't own any you should buy some."
Mark Mahaney presents a bullish view on Netflix, driven by an expected strong content slate, expansion into advertising and live events, and sustained earnings per share growth over the next few years. He recommends accumulating Netflix shares as a core long-term position, despite the stock having appreciated significantly in recent periods.
Bullish on Amazon: A Long-Term Buy with Catalysts in AWS, Robotics, and Logistics
"Many investors are concluding that with all these other companies doing so well, and Amazon being left behind, maybe now it's an opportunity. And I believe that's just the case. ... I think it's one of the best buys today."
The host lays out a bullish case for Amazon by emphasizing its underperformance relative to other big tech companies. He highlights critical catalysts such as re-accelerating AWS growth, a diversified and massive customer base, advancements in robotics and automation, a robust Prime ecosystem, advertising expansion, and a dominant logistics network. He expects Amazon, trading at around $220, to potentially double over the next five years, making it an attractive long-term buy.
Netflix Day-in-Life Videos May Harm Company Reputation
"Streaming a day-in-the-life video that shows employees taking prolonged breaks could harm Netflix's image as a high-performance, elite company."
The host criticizes recent Netflix day-in-the-life videos for portraying a lack of discipline and excessive leisure among employees. This cultural observation suggests that such branding could negatively affect the company's reputation and, in turn, its stock perception among investors.
Meta Vulnerable to H-1B Visa Policy Adjustments
"Meta employs 75,000 workers, with about 5,000 on H-1B visas, making up roughly 6.7% of its employee base, which could expose the company to risks if the new $100,000 annual H-1B fee is enforced."
The host provides a regulatory insight on Meta, noting that its higher percentage of H-1B workers could lead to cost pressures and operational risks if new visa fee policies are implemented. This commentary serves as a caution for investors considering Meta's valuation and potential regulatory headwinds.
NVIDIA's Massive AI Infrastructure Investment Catalyst
"NVIDIA stock is up 3.7% today following the announcement of a $100 billion investment to build at least 10 gigawatts of AI-powered data centers, with the first capacity coming online in the second half of 2026."
The host highlights NVIDIA's landmark investment in AI infrastructure. This move is expected to drive long-term demand for NVIDIA's GPUs and networking solutions, underpinning the company as a key player in the ongoing AI revolution.
Buy ASML: Undervalued Monopolistic EUV Leader
"I bought $15,000 of ASML stock at $750 per share after their disappointing earnings report, and now the price is surging towards $1,000. I remain bullish on ASML despite the short-term drop."
The host delivers an explicit trade call recommending buying and holding ASML. He cites its dominant position in EUV lithography, undervalued price action following a short-term earnings disappointment, and solid catalysts from future growth in AI and chip manufacturing.
Equifax (EFX) as a Buy for Defensive Growth
"Now, finally, we get to Equifax. This is one of my newer positions... I consider Equifax a buy right now. I think that it's a great company. It's at an attractive price. And I believe that there's more upside than downside."
The host presents Equifax as an attractive, defensive buy, noting that its subscription-based and data-driven business model coupled with an appealing valuation offers more potential for upside. He purchased additional shares during a tariff-induced dip, emphasizing Equifax's wide moat and consistent performance.
Entry Point Opportunity in S&P Global (SPGI)
"When you evaluate FactSet and why it's causing S&P Global and Moody's to sell off, you can take a look at the business lines of S&P Global... this offers a nice opportunity to an entry point position in this company. S&P Global's trading at a 3.5% free cashflow yield, a 28 PE ratio, for an ultra high quality company."
The host highlights S&P Global as a compelling buy opportunity after a recent sell-off driven by negative news from FactSet. He emphasizes the company’s strong free cash flow yield, reasonable valuation at a 28 PE ratio, and diversified business segments including credit rating and data services, suggesting an attractive entry point for investors.
Caution on Uber Amid Rising Competitive Pressure
"For example, if we look at this stock today, Uber's stock is down 5%... rising competitive pressure on Uber's autonomy roadmap weighed on Uber shares intraday."
In discussing Waymos expanding partnerships and safe robo-taxi data, the analyst notes that Uber is suffering due to competitive pressure on its autonomous technology. This serves as a cautionary note for investors holding or considering Uber.
Equifaxs Unique Workforce Verification as a Competitive Edge
"Equifax is by far the most scaled with the work number... I would not buy Equifax without the work number."
The analyst highlights Equifaxs distinctive workforce verification product as a major competitive advantage over its peers TransUnion and Experian. This added layer of data verification distinguishes its credit bureau business, making it a more attractive investment.
Hold Intuit Amid Strong Fundamentals
"Im very pleased with whats going on with Intuit. Right now, with all of that, Im at a hold."
In the Q&A, the analyst mentions that despite stable fundamentals and strong performance, Intuit currently has no compelling catalyst to push its stock higher, leading to a hold rating.
Buy Aptiv on Software Spinoff Catalyst
"Shares are trading for around $83 right now, and they believe the shares will hit around $100... if investors keep viewing both spinoffs as car companies, it could be a bad deal."
Aptiv is recommended as a buy due to its impending spinoff where the high-margin safety and software business will be re-rated significantly. The potential uplift from $83 to $100 per share represents an approximate 25% gain, though there is downside if investors misclassify the business solely as automotive.
Hold/Buy Vertiv for Continued Earnings Beats
"They say that it would be no surprise if Vertiv beats expectations in the coming quarters... I do like the thesis on this one."
Vertiv, a supplier of power and cooling equipment to data centers, has a solid earnings beat streak and margin expansion forecasts. The analyst views it as a steady play in the tech infrastructure space, recommending continued buying or holding as data center build-out persists.
Buy InnoData on Strong AI Data Validation Growth
"It's called InnoData. It's making AI models smarter. Buy the stock... now it's up to $66 from $36."
InnoData is applauded for its innovative business model that combines proprietary platforms with expert human oversight to clean and annotate data for AI. The rapid revenue growth from $8 million to a $135 million run rate validates the companys technology, making it an attractive speculative buy even after a substantial recent price run.
Pass on U-Haul Despite Market Dominance
"U-Haul's just looked at as transporting stuff, but U-Haul is a pass for me."
Though U-Haul is the market leader in moving with extensive fleets and network effects, the analyst expresses a personal preference to not invest in it, possibly due to limitations in margin expansion or other structural factors.
Avoid Twilio Due to Limited Upside in Margins
"I think that this one has a problem... I would rather just buy Google at a 25 than be exposed to Twilio, given the inherent risk that as customers grow they might eventually build their own communication API."
The analyst critiques Twilio despite its consistent sales beat and growth, citing concerns over its consumption-based pricing model and the risk of major customers developing in-house alternatives. The advice is to avoid Twilio in favor of a safer pick like Alphabet.
Caution on Option Care Health in the Home Infusion Space
"I see a few red flags of why I wouldn't buy this one... I'm unlikely to buy an investment like this just because it works in the healthcare industry and it's not one that I typically venture into."
The analyst discusses Option Care Health, a leading provider in home infusion therapy, acknowledging its growing market and low valuation. However, concerns such as industry-specific volatility, high debt from acquisitions and personal investing style lead to a recommendation to pass on the stock.
Bullish on Alphabet (Google) as Undervalued Buy
"They said that Alphabet's pieces could be worth $260 per share, more than 50% higher than Thursday's close. ... So at the stock price it was trading at, I would argue that this call has largely been correct."
The analyst reviews Barrons call on Google (Alphabet), noting its low forward P/E of 19 compared to peers and a sum-of-the-parts valuation that suggests a target around $260. The stock, trading near $250, is seen as undervalued with built-in downside protection and compelling relative valuation.
ASML: Undervalued Breakout on a Winning Streak
"And now we also have another company that\'s going up big today, which is ASML. The company is up 5% today and looks like it\'s finally breaking out after being undervalued for some time."
The host highlights ASML as a stock that is experiencing a breakout, with a noted 5% gain on the day despite having been undervalued previously. This brief commentary reinforces the company\'s value proposition and suggests that price momentum driven by underlying value could be creating a timely buying opportunity.
Google Reverses Bearish Trend with Gemini App Dominance
"Google has been such an interesting stock because it was so bearish just a few months ago. Now it\'s becoming incredibly bullish. The stock price is moving up and its AI app Gemini has taken the top spot in the Apple App Store, surpassing ChatGPT."
The host observes a significant turnaround in Google\'s market sentiment. After months of bearish behavior, Google appears to be regaining momentum as evidenced by its rising stock price and the impressive performance of its Gemini app in the competitive AI space. This change is presented as an actionable insight for investors who may view the shift as a catalyst for near-term gains.
Opendoor: Potential Next 100x Opportunity Amidst Fundamentals Concerns
"Now, like we mentioned at the start, Opendoor has been the best performing stock in the market going up 530% year to date. It still seems like it has a lot of momentum. ... But then again, while the fundamentals don\'t fully justify a 500% surge, there is a clear thesis based on cost cutting, lack of direct competitors and potential interest rate changes."
The host outlines Opendoor\'s dramatic turnaround story, comparing its trajectory to the earlier Carvana success. He explains that despite weak current fundamentals, the company is repositioning by aggressively cutting costs and standing alone in the home-flipping segment. While not an outright trade call (the host states he is \"watching\" rather than investing), the commentary gives investors detailed insight into the potential for a major rebound if catalysts like falling interest rates materialize.
Amazon: Top Pick with $300 Target
"Just in the past day, Morgan Stanley reiterated Amazon as a top pick at $300 price, bolstered by its same day fresh grocery delivery expansion and the growth potential in AWS."
The speaker highlights Amazon as a top pick, citing Morgan Stanley's reiteration of a $300 price target. He notes that Amazon’s expanding grocery delivery network and AWS growth are bullish catalysts that reduce key competitive risks, making it a compelling investment.
Google: Target $300 from $240 Entry
"I think it's going to go to $300 per share. Looking back five years, investors will wish they bought Google for $240 per share."
The speaker is optimistic about Google’s future performance, projecting a rise in its share price from current levels, with a target of $300 per share. He underscores the missed opportunity for investors who bought at $240, indicating strong growth potential.
Adobe: Potential Re-rating to Double Price
"Imagine if this company gets re-rated back to a 20 multiple or a 25. The stock price could quite literally double from here from 350 to 700."
The speaker highlights Adobe's current discount, marked by its historically low valuation metrics and a high free cash flow yield. He suggests that if market fears subside and the firm is re-rated, Adobe’s stock price could potentially double from $350 to $700.
ASML Undervalued: Target $1,000
"I continue to believe is undervalued. It’s not at an extreme low, but I believe the ASML could trade up to $1,000. I think that's relatively fair."
The speaker is bullish on ASML, noting its resilient business model and predictable revenue cycle. He believes ASML, despite having lumpy cash flow due to accounting practices, is undervalued and has strong long-term growth potential with a target price around $1,000.