Short Trade Call on Anavex as Drug Data Falters

2 months ago

Speaker

"Um, so I think the November are in play. Um, you know, the December are like 99% chance it's in play. I think the stock's going to cash value. Cash value here is probably around a dollar, and when we get their latest cash figures, I'd estimate around 75 cents a shareish. But I do think, you know, they're going to try to get re‐examined and possibly kick this can down the road to next year, yet the reality is I do think the jig is up. Now, if they somehow did get an EMA approval, I certainly think that the doctors won't pay for it or that the countries won't reimburse it — though in that scenario I could see the stock doubling, maybe going to 12."

The speaker expresses a high-conviction trade call on Anavex, arguing that the flawed clinical trial data and questionable analysis indicate the stock is destined to fall to its cash value—around $1 per share. Although acknowledging a remote upside if EMA approval were miraculously secured, the core view is bearish and suggests a short position using options in the November and December cycle.

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