Macro Outlook for 2026
"I've been consistently telling everybody that the market's not broken down yet, but midterm election years typically on average have printed a 19% uh draw down before reversing. I think 2026 is going to be another positive year. We just came off of two back to back double-digit increase years on the QQQ. But I think the first half of the year is going to be trouble. Second half of the year, we're going to see strength again. Not terribly different than what we saw in 2025 when the market flushed hit lows in April and then it was just solid the rest of the year."
Josh offers a macro perspective on the market, noting historical drawdowns during midterm election years and suggesting that while the first half of 2026 might be challenging, the second half could bring renewed strength. He references recent market performance and previous years as context for his outlook.
Trade Call on QQQ Based on 9-Day Support
"So, what you're seeing on your screen right now is QQQ. And this is the NASDAQ. This is part of my core portfolio. I own hundreds, if not millions of dollars of this. And this is the monthly candle. And I say this a lot, but when in doubt, zoom out. And you want to find trends because trends are very similar. And again when you traded under that 9 day. So, how do you know that we not going into another 2022 when you dipped down that much? You don't. You look for patterns. And the key point is for me, if we're not on this monthly chart, if we're not under that 9-day and we continue to use it as support, I want to buy as close to that 9-day as possible. And that's either short-term, long-term, whatever I'm doing."
The speaker outlines a technical trade idea using QQQ, noting that the 9-day moving average—observed around 570 to 585—has historically acted as a strong support level. The plan is to buy near this support if the price holds, leveraging pattern recognition from a 4-hour algorithm. This suggests an actionable entry point for traders when QQQ approaches its 9-day support.
Buy the Dip in QQQ as a Long-Term Opportunity
"Now, look, maybe you're not picking individual stocks yet. That's awesome. But that's where ETFs like SPY and QQQ come in. It gives you a piece of these big companies, all 500 biggest companies, and QQQ gives you the biggest names in tech. These ETFs are like the basket of the strongest businesses, and when the markets drop, the entire basket goes on sale. These companies are still solid companies, but you're just paying a lower price to own them. What could be better? Let's say QQQ drop 50%. Does that mean Apple and Microsoft suddenly become bad companies? Of course not. And that's when long-term investors should get excited."
The speaker advocates for taking advantage of market dips by buying ETFs like QQQ. He emphasizes that even if QQQ falls significantly, the underlying quality of its constituent companies remains strong, making it an attractive long-term buying opportunity through strategies like dollar cost averaging and disciplined investing.
Day Trading Call: Buy the Dip in QQQ
"Now, if you look at a monthly chart of QQQ, and I'm just going over this is what you should be doing. The dips are getting bought on a five-minute chart. Whether it's the light shaded area, which is after hours, or during the day, the dips are being bought. And where are we today? Well, if you bought in the after hours on Thursday, way down here, $591, you're up again. QQQ looks like it's a buy the dip. And you can use some of these other indicators to find out when you should buy. The MACD was way down here at 4:15 on October 17th. The RSI went all the way down to 17 overbought. If you're day trading this, boom, buy it. Buy it again."
The speaker discusses QQQ with a focus on technical indicators and intraday chart patterns. He notes that buying on dips—especially after hours at around $591—could be profitable as technical signals like the MACD and RSI support a dip-buying strategy for day traders.