Excellent Risk vs Reward Opportunity in Novo Nordisk
"I see that as an opportunity. The fair value I calculated for Novo Nordis stock is $88. The current market price is $48 and that's even after I adjusted upward the risk profile of the company by 25%, adjusting the beta higher by 25% to account for the greater risk in investing in Novo Nordis stock today. Overall I do believe this is an excellent risk versus reward situation for long-term investors to capitalize on the benefits of investing in a company with decades of experience in developing treatments that generate billions in revenue and cash flow."
The speaker highlights a significant undervaluation in Novo Nordisk stock, calculating a fair value of $88 against a current price of $48. Despite short-term negative sentiments and operational challenges, he presents this as a compelling long-term buy opportunity due to the company's robust pipeline and market potential in weight loss treatments.
Long-term Buy Opportunity for Novo Nordisk
"So I mentioned Novon Nordisk experiencing difficulties in 2025. Stock price is at $48. It's very close to the 52-week low of $45. So, it's trending down even though the company has this phenomenal product that's gaining significant sales, but the company is not growing sales as much as investors had hoped. And it's undergoing significant headwinds in the weight loss market with compounders with Eli Liy with the US administration pressuring Novo and others to lower prices and offer more accessible treatments. And so I can understand the lower enthusiasm from investors, but I've calculated a fair value of this business at $88. And I don't expect the headwinds to go away anytime soon, but I think longer term this could be an excellent addition to investor portfolios, especially if you don't already have a player in this industry to diversify your portfolio."
The speaker outlines significant headwinds facing Novo Nordisk, including competitive pressure and regulatory challenges, while highlighting that the stock is trading near its 52-week low at $48. However, based on a fair value calculation of $88, he suggests that the long-term potential of Novo Nordisk makes it an attractive buy for investors seeking exposure in the obesity and diabetes treatment space.
Buy Call on Novo Nordisk (NVO) Based on Undervaluation and Restructuring
"I also updated my fair value calculation for Novo Nordis stock. There was a few changes I needed to make. I updated the number of shares outstanding. I updated the company's total debt and not operating assets. And overall, that changed the intrinsic value per share to $88. And the fair value, that's the fair value. That's the value I believe this business is worth today. But you can buy Novo Nordis stock at $48 a share. So, I see this business as being one that's undervalued, of course, increased in risk because of the company's recent developments."
The speaker updates his fair value calculation for Novo Nordisk, arriving at an intrinsic value of $88 per share while noting the stock is trading at $48, thus calling it undervalued. He acknowledges the increased risk due to recent developments but maintains a long-term buy recommendation.
Nova Nordisk Rebound Potential Amid Pharma Volatility
"Let's start with Nova Nordisk. I'll get dizzy on these. So, okay. But Nova Nordisk and this also shows what are the main mantra of retail investors often where they anchor their investment decisions on past prices. This has fallen 65% must come back and actually it can come back because if we look at the stock prices the market usually overshoots on the upside also overshoots on the downside. At some point, this crash will be overdone and then I'm sure the stock will rebound plus 50%."
The speaker elaborates on Nova Nordisk's current situation, noting the 65% drop and suggesting that overdone market corrections could lead to a rebound of around 50%. However, the commentary reflects the inherent volatility and uncertainty in the pharma sector, implying that while the upside is significant, the risks remain high.
NVO Extremely Undervalued Trade Opportunity
"After looking at NVO again, I think there will still be some challenges in the short term due to their deal with the US government which is going to lower their margins, but I believe the volume growth that could come out of it after 2026 could potentially more than offset the temporary margin compression. They're going to get a deal on the tariffs for the next three years. No tariffs. That's going to be huge for them. So I believe NVO at 12 times earnings relative to all those risks is more than fairly valued. It's even extremely undervalued in my opinion and the dividend is well covered for now and I believe the company has not been buying back stock in 2025, so they should start buying back stock again in 2026 and that could be a catalyst for the stock to potentially bottom out or start holding up a little bit better."
The speaker argues that despite short-term margin compression from a government pricing deal, Novo Nordisk (NVO) is extremely undervalued at 12 times earnings. He believes that post-2026, volume growth, tariff exemptions, and eventual share buybacks could offset these pressures, making NVO an attractive trade opportunity.
Nova Nordisk Withdraws Takeover Attempt
"Investors are actually quite happy that Nova will not be purchasing MSA. So shares rose for Nova Nordisk this morning after it withdrew over the weekend its $10 billion offer for Midsera the obesity startup. So that means that FISA will now be buying the company. Investors are not seeing this as a setback for Nova Nordisk but more Nova walking away from something that might have been quite difficult to pull off maybe."
Nova Nordisk's decision to withdraw its $10 billion bid for an obesity startup is being welcomed by investors, as it avoids potential regulatory and pricing issues. The market reacted positively with a rise in shares, signaling that the move is viewed as a strategic retreat rather than a failure.
Novo Nordisk ($NVO): From messy back to miracle
"Thesis in one line: Novo is working through a messy transition year—pricing noise, copycat pressure, pipeline repositioning, and a brutal share-price drawdown—but the long runway in obesity, cardiometabolic health, and next-gen orals remains intact. I see a path to steady re-acceleration from 2026 as pricing clarity, access expansion, oral launches, and portfolio breadth start compounding again. Strategy - Regain momentum, broaden the beachhead The job for the next 6–18 months is simple to state and hard to execute: convert exceptional science and brand equity into durable, diversified revenue growth while navigating policy, competition, and manufacturing challenges. Kontra Investments is a reader-supported publication."
[SUBSTACK_TICKERS:] The market just priced Novo for collapse — but the next trillion-dollar health theme is only getting started.
Novo Nordisk Buy Recommendation Post Earnings
"But still, even after adjusting the risk higher, the intrinsic value per share is meaningfully higher than the company's market price. It's trading at $46 a share. And the intrinsic value I calculated is $116. So even after all of these difficulties, I still feel this stock is a good risk versus reward for long-term investors. Given the significant headwinds from pricing pressures and competitive challenges, I believe the upside remains compelling."
The analyst updates his recommendation on Novo Nordisk post-earnings by highlighting that, despite competitive and regulatory pressures affecting its weight loss treatments, the company's intrinsic value of $116 per share far exceeds its current trading price of around $46. He maintains a buy rating, believing that the long-term risk versus reward remains favorable.
Novo Nordisk bid raises overpayment and regulatory concerns
"But now the reason why Nova shares were down this morning is because there are concerns now arising among investors that the higher the bids go the more likely the biders will be overpaying and there's also the threat of regulatory hurdles. This antitrust concerns coming into view as well. So we'll see how this goes going forward."
Novo Nordisk's escalating bid for an obesity startup has sparked investor concerns over potential overpayment and looming antitrust issues, contributing to a decline in the shares.
Positive Catalysts for Novo Nordisk Amid Bidding Drama
"So a judge denied FISA's request to temporarily block the $10 billion bid from Nova Nordisk to buy uh the obesity startup Midsa. The judge concluded that FISA did not have legitimate complaints about Nova's efforts to outbid it. FISA actually did match the offer from Mitsera, setting the stage for an escalating bidding war. And although there is no clarity yet on who might win, it seems that FISA's attempts to block the offer have failed, which is positive for Nova Nordisk. There's also news that the Trump administration is set to announce a deal with both Eli Liy and Novo on weight loss drug pricing later today. It appears that this news has helped erase some of the losses seen yesterday after Novo had trimmed its forecast for the fourth time this year."
The commentary highlights that Novo Nordisk's failed bid block and potential weight loss drug pricing deal are being perceived positively, offsetting recent forecast trims and hinting at near-term upside.