GEV Trade Call – Waiting for a Better Entry
"So for my estimate I'm using 25 times IBIDA and 30 times IBIDA. If I use 25 times IBIDA I got $326 billion market cap. The current market cap is $178 billion. This is only 82% on the upside for the next 5 years. But for me personally to buy the stock, it would have to be trading around 500 or a little bit under $500 per share. That would be at about a 22-23 times EBIDA multiple."
The speaker outlines a valuation for GEV by applying multiple contraction scenarios over the next 5 years, concluding that while the company's recurring revenue model and strong competitive advantage are attractive, he would only buy if the share price falls near $500 to secure a margin of safety.
GE Vernova: Reasonable Long-Term Buy on Profit Margin Expansion
"So it's not nearly as cheap as it was. Uh, yeah, to say the least. When we did the initial deep dive last June or July and called it out as a top energy grid, data center power idea. It was obviously mispriced after getting spun off of leftover GE Aerospace. So that cheapness is gone, but thanks to the profit margin expansion, the use of the net cash balance to make some key acquisitions and integrations in that electrification business, this still could be a reasonable buy for the long term. This is one we still like, especially for those of you that are still looking for big industrialist companies to incorporate into your portfolio. Looking for some way to invest in the power grid data center, power, all that good stuff. We still like GEV here."
The speaker outlines GE Vernova's evolving growth strategy driven by profit margin expansion through key acquisitions and integration efforts in its electrification business. Despite a higher valuation compared to its earlier mispricing, the company is positioned as a reasonable long-term buy due to its strategic use of net cash and margin improvements, making it an attractive play for investors interested in industrial and energy grid opportunities.
F5 Inc. Faces Major Downside Amid Cybersecurity Breach Concerns
"And then of course, one of the worst performers though in the S&P 500 is Five Inc. FFIV is the ticker on there. I was just going to quickly point that out just because that's down 11% today. So if you look over the last two days, especially on the back of what it was talking about where it did warn about the catastrophic hacks yesterday, right? Actually, that stock's down close to 15% over the last two trading sessions. So that would be its worst two-day span since April of 2022."
The segment focuses on the sharp decline in FFIV (F5 Inc.), noting an 11% drop today and a 15% decline over the last two sessions, marking its worst performance in two days since April 2022. The negative performance is linked to warnings about catastrophic hacks, contributing to its dismal chart.
Exit Signal on GE Vernova When Testing the Lower Regression Channel
"On the day when GE Vernova undercut near the close, it tested the prior low and then closed below it. That was my cue to get out—this break signaled that the channel wasn't containing price action anymore."
The speaker recounted his exit strategy on GE Vernova, using regression channel lines as his guide. When GE Vernova broke below its key support (the lower channel line), he exited his position, signaling a loss of the upward trend.