Big Bear AI Overvalued - Avoid Buying at Current Levels
"And for all those reasons, I've been warning investors about this company. At the current market price of $582, I see it as being overvalued. The intrinsic value per share I calculated for Big Bear AI is $1.14. So, anything at these levels looks overvalued for Big Bear AI. And I will reiterate that I do not have this stock rated as a buy."
The speaker warns investors against buying Big Bear AI, citing its overvaluation relative to an intrinsic value of $1.14 per share. He notes that the company's practice of selling stock to raise capital is a negative signal and indicates management sees the stock as overvalued.
Big Bear AI Stock Overvalued Based on Intrinsic Value Calculation
"When you're a company that has a stock price that's inflated or overvalued, you will tend to use your stock when you're making an offer for acquisition because as a manager of your company, you know the real value of your company. And when the stock price is well above your calculation of intrinsic value, you might be more likely to use that to make acquisitions to plug into your company and generate revenue growth. And with Big Bear AI, I calculated an intrinsic value per share for this company at $1.13. And the current market price is $6.16. So, it's well above the intrinsic value per share I calculated. And so, this company, these shares are overvalued in my opinion."
The speaker discusses Big Bear AI's use of its inflated stock price for acquisitions, highlighting that the current market price of $6.16 is significantly above the computed intrinsic value of $1.13 per share. This overvaluation raises concerns about whether the company's acquisition strategy can generate sustainable revenue growth.
Short Call on BBAI Due to Poor Company Fundamentals
"BBAI short some of that. Stock is uh this company, whole company is a joke. I actually interviewed somebody that used to work there and they were pretty dismissive of their career there. Oh, I'm already short a bunch of it. Okay, I'll take that."
The speaker issues an explicit short call on BBAI, citing poor company fundamentals and dismissive insider commentary as the rationale behind the decision. The trade is positioned as an aggressive short, taking advantage of what is viewed as a fundamentally weak stock.
Trade Call on Big Bear AI with Long-Term Upside
"Now, of course, quick plug. If you are a Discord member, you're going to get all of our price targets, and you're going to get them all first. But this is what we sent out to Discord members today. Our BBI forecast through 2030 is as follows. In the commercial AI platform, I see about $680 million of revenue in my bullcase. For the government and defense AI systems, I see about $410 million. And this is going to scale up to create a combined total revenue of 1.09 billion at a multiple that I would think is appropriate based on much much higher comps today. I would say you're looking at something around $27.3 billion in market cap and that comes out to a price per share of $55."
The speaker presents a detailed long-term forecast for Big Bear AI (BBAI), highlighting its turnaround to profitability, strong backlog, and expansion potential. Emphasizing the distressed price levels relative to its growth catalysts, the speaker provides a long-term price target of $55, suggesting significant upside and making it an attractive trade call.
Blackstone Mulls Bid for Big Yellow Group
"Indeed. Yeah. This is the self-s storage company landlord across the UK. Big name. You\"ll see their big billboards everywhere. So Blackstone is in the early stages of mulling a bid. Um, Big Yellow Group has a market cap of about 2 billion pounds. So if a bid comes to light, it could be quite sizable. They say they\"re considering the macro environment and the potential impact of the UK budget on the wider space."
Blackstone is reportedly exploring a bid for Big Yellow Group, a major self-storage landlord with a market cap of around 2 billion pounds. The news has already propelled the shares up by approximately 20%, reflecting strong market momentum and investor interest in the sector amid broader economic considerations.
Trade Call: Bullish on Big Bear AI as the Next Palantir
"If you miss Palantir, buy this stock now. So, let's talk about Big Bear AI. The ticker symbol is BB AI. It's a smaller, lesser-known company that analysts are watching very closely in the AI and defense space. … Big Bear AI's core strength right now is its position in defense and government contracting, a lot like Palantir was. But despite being a relatively small company, it landed some serious deals. We're talking about a $165 million contract with the U.S. Army, a $13 million agreement with Department of Defense, and a five-year deal with the NSA. Those are major multi-year relationships that give Big Bear a seat at the big table. And with an overall contract backlog of $380 million as of a few months ago, there's a lot of locked-in business that can turn into real revenue over the next few years, assuming the company is able to execute."
The speaker issues a direct trade call urging investors to consider buying Big Bear AI (BB AI) as a potential opportunity to replicate Palantir's explosive gains. The rationale is supported by the company's major government contracts, a significant backlog, diversified expansion into commercial biometrics, and a new leadership team with deep government ties. Despite acknowledging risks like dilution and historical flat revenue growth, the call emphasizes the potential for multi-fold returns if fundamentals improve.