Strong Q3 Performance and Reassuring Valuation Metrics for AppLovin
"Now since App has been such a hot stock in recent months, we decided we'd do a update on our reverse DCF. Now of course it's not the value it was a few months ago, but let's go ahead and take a look and see what's baked into the current valuation. Trailing 12 month free cash flow per share of $9 and 77 cents compared to $9 and 14 cents last quarter. Free cash flow per share growth of 30% for five years, a terminal growth rate of 6% with a discount rate of, 10% gets us to a fair value of around $680, which was the pre-market share price when we recorded this video on November 6th, 2025."
The speaker provides detailed Q3 metrics and a reverse DCF valuation for AppLovin, noting significant free cash flow growth and a fair value estimate that closely matches its pre-market share price. This commentary underscores the company's strong operational performance and evolving valuation, offering reassurance to investors regarding its current price level.
Buy the Dip on AppLovin with Caution Amid Regulatory Risk
"if you own AppLovin, or this is one you're interested in buying the dip on, these are items that you should most definitely watch and make sure the company is not going to actually run afoul of regulators."
The speaker advises investors who already hold or are considering buying AppLovin to monitor regulatory developments closely, suggesting that buying the dip could be a viable strategy provided that the company steers clear of severe regulatory penalties.
Bullish Trade Call on Applovin
"So, is Apploven a long-term buy or just a hot trade? Let's call it what it is. Most investors buying the stock have no idea what they're holding. They're chasing momentum, not understanding the moat. And that's why I'm looking to buy the stock and plan on selling a cash secured put today. This is my real portfolio. I'm up 76.7% year-to-date."
The speaker outlines a bullish trade call on Apploving (ticker A), emphasizing the company's strong execution, innovative ad-tech platform, and superior margins. He criticizes the market's misinterpretation and indicates that selling a cash secured put reflects a strategic, data-driven portfolio move.
Applovin Falls 5.6% Amid Regulatory Probe
"And finally, the worst performer in the S&P 500 though was Apploving down 5.6%. Shares fell after the New York Post reported that state regulators have reached out to multiple short sellers in a possible preliminary probe for the mobile advertising company. The states include Delaware, Oregon, and Connecticut. The report comes after news earlier this month that the SEC has been probing Apploving's data collection practices."
The commentary on Applovin is notably bearish, as the stock fell by 5.6% following regulatory scrutiny. The mention of outreach to short sellers and ongoing SEC probes signals heightened risks associated with its practices.
AppLovin Under Regulatory Probe
"Let's go to App Leven. What's going on? >> Yes, the keep it easy for us. The ticker is a App. Uh shares are down as much as more than 7%. Um now they paired a bit up down about 3.8%. This is after the New York Post reported that the state regulators have reached out to multiple short sellers in a possible preliminary probe on the company here. So the states involved in this concern are Delaware, Oregon, Connecticut. This all according to the report. But if you do look back uh earlier this month in early October, we had the SEC that was probing the company in terms of its data collection practices. So lots of heat right now on this company. Uh shares are up though 78% so far this year."
The speaker discusses regulatory pressures on AppLovin, noting that shares have dropped over 7% amidst reports of state regulators contacting short sellers. This follows an earlier SEC probe into the company's data collection practices. Despite these headwinds, the stock has delivered strong year-to-date gains of 78%, reflecting mixed sentiment.