BWB - Business With Brian

High Conviction Buy on SMH for Semiconductor Exposure

+3.31%current return

"So, if I'm going to ignore the traditional balanced approach and rules, then I would be investing purely on where the constraints and the cash flows are right now. With that in mind, I would shift to a strategy of bottleneck and brains. I'm really waiting this based on urgency. So, where is the money flowing today versus where it might be flowing in 10 years? First is the engine room where I'm allocating 40%. This is where the cash flow is today and everyone knows it. You simply can't underweight a sector that's growing at 40% a year. So, I'd be putting 25% directly into the VANX Semiconductor ETF of SMH. This is my highest conviction hold because chips are the new oil of the 21st century. In my mind, 20% wouldn't be enough for the sector that's driving the entire stock market."

The speaker explicitly recommends allocating 25% of the portfolio to SMH, the VANX Semiconductor ETF, underscoring its role as the engine of the current cash flow and its high-growth potential driven by semiconductor demand. He emphasizes that chips are critical in powering the market, making SMH a high conviction buy despite no explicit price target.

Global X Uranium ETF (URA) as a Benchmark Nuclear Play

+16.81%current return

"First off, I'm going to start with Global X Uranium ETF with a ticker symbol UR because I think it happens to be the benchmark in this space. It happens to be the most established, the most liquid, and the most balanced exposure that you can get in a single nuclear ETF. Year-to-date, it's up over 69%. Which tells you exactly what happens when uranium tightens and capital finally recognizes nuclear as a core infrastructure rather than just a side bet. Fees come in at 0.69% and URA pays a 1.69% dividend. URA is rated a moderate buy based on 41 analyst ratings with a 10.5% upside over the next 12 months. It sits right in the middle, the layer where conviction meets liquidity."

The speaker highlights Global X Uranium ETF (URA) as the benchmark nuclear ETF, emphasizing its liquidity, balanced exposure, and strong performance with a 10.5% upside over the next 12 months. The commentary suggests that URA offers diversified exposure to nuclear energy infrastructure, making it an attractive, moderate buy option for investors seeking exposure in this sector.

Market concentration reflects exceptional execution, not a bubble

"Now, if these seven stumble, the entire index is going to feel it. But this isn't dot com where worthless companies got billiondoll valuations. The market is correctly pricing the fact that these seven companies generate the majority of the actual profit growth in the entire index. So in this case, the concentration isn't a bubble. It's the result of exceptional execution."

The speaker challenges the prevailing bubble narrative by highlighting that the concentration in the Magnificent 7 is a result of strong profitability and real earnings growth, contrasting current fundamentals with the dot-com era's overvaluations.

Nvidia: Industrializing AI for Robotics

"Nvidia powers intelligence layers behind nearly every major robot deployment. Their new Jetson AGX Thor platform acts as a full robot brain capable of running advanced AI models directly on the machine. It gives robots the ability to see, plan, and react in real time, pushing NVIDIA well beyond pure compute and into the perception layer itself. And then there's Isaac Sim, built on Nvidia's Omniverse platform, the digital twin environment where robots can learn before they're even built. A robot can be trained overnight across 10,000 virtual scenarios and deployed in the real world already optimized for performance. Analysts see roughly 25% upside ahead for Nvidia, driven by continued leadership in AI infrastructure and robotic simulation, the twin engines of machine intelligence."

The speaker highlights Nvidia's pivotal role as the central brain in modern robotics, emphasizing its advanced AI platform and simulation capabilities that enable rapid deployment and training of robots, along with an analyst upside estimate of approximately 25%.

Meta Platforms: Buying the Dip Despite Technical Headwinds

+1.67%current return

"Next up is Meta Platforms with a ticker meta. The stock just dropped 11% after earnings, which was its worst day in 3 years. Despite the technical damage with the RSI at 27 and MACD showing strong bearish momentum, I actually bought a fair amount because it's a long-term play for me. I think the market overreacted to the AI spending news, and with Meta's solid fundamentals and dominant market position, there's potential for a 32% upside over the next 12 months."

The speaker explains his rationale for buying Meta Platforms despite the recent technical decline after earnings. Emphasizing strong fundamentals and an anticipated recovery from an overreaction in the market, he views the current dip as a long-term buying opportunity.

Forge Global's Undervalued Play and Sudden Buyout

"Next up is Forge Global Holdings with a ticker FRG. This one gets a lot of requests frequently because it's a very unique play. Forge had a PEG ratio of a 0.08, meaning that it was extremely undervalued because a PEG of one tends to be the baseline. And it was the stock that I referenced in the intro where analysts had projected it to be up over 77% in the next 12 months. It happened to hit and exceed that in a single day. For those of you that owned Forge prior to this video, congratulations to you."

The speaker reviews Forge Global as a unique play in the private shares marketplace. Highlighting its extremely attractive valuation and the recent buyout announcement by Schwab, he underscores that early investors benefited significantly, though the timing rendered it a hindsight call for new buyers.

Oaklo's Innovative Micro Reactor Model and Its High-Risk, High-Reward Profile

"Now, first up in the innovation reactor tier is Oaklo. They're a micro reactor company backed by OpenAI's Sam Altman. Their Aurora design produces about 15 megawatts of continuous power, enough to run a large AI data center. They're built to operate for 10 years without ever refueling. No moving parts, no water cooled core, minimal waste. So, what exactly makes Oakl different? They don't want to sell reactors. They want to own and operate them like mini power plants. Instead of relying on utilities, they're targeting private customers, industrial campuses, defense bases, and hyperscalers that really want to lock in that 24/7 clean power. They've already received conditional site use permit from the DOE at Idaho National Lab. And they're targeting their first operational reactor by 2027."

Oaklo is highlighted as a high-risk, high-reward play in the innovation reactor space. The company's unique model of owning and operating reactors—backed by notable figures like OpenAI's Sam Altman—positions it as a potential catalyst for nuclear-as-a-service, though execution risks remain.

Dominion Energy's SMR Partnership with Amazon Signals a New Era

"Next, we have Dominion Energy, which operates three major nuclear plants across Virginia and Connecticut, providing reliable zerocarbon base load to more than 2 million homes. They've already extended those reactor licenses into the60s, locking in decades of operating runway. But here's where it gets a little interesting. Dominion just signed a deal with Amazon to explore deploying small modular reactors in Virginia, the first hyperscaler utility nuclear partnership on record. It's the clearest signal yet that AI powered demand is pulling utilities straight into the SMR era."

Dominion Energy is presented as a stable, cash-flow positive utility that is expanding its nuclear capabilities through an SMR deal with Amazon. This collaboration positions the company to capitalize on growing AI data center power demands.

Uranium Royalty Corp's Low-Risk Exposure to Rising Uranium Prices

"And that's where today's sponsor, Uranium Royalty Corp. comes into play, where they are a pioneer in the uranium sector. And with a majority of all uranium being imported to the US, UROY is uniquely positioned to benefit from the global resurgence of nuclear energy, but with a unique take on it. UY is bypassing the operational hassles and the risks of traditional mining. Instead, they utilize an innovative business model that focuses entirely on royalties and streaming deals. This unique structure provides investors with exposure to the uranium production, which I've already called out as a bottleneck in this nuclear stack, but without the operational challenges. It's showing in their stock where they're already up over 160% in the past 6 months."

The commentary highlights Uranium Royalty Corp's innovative royalty and streaming model that sidesteps traditional mining risks. The strong recent performance (up over 160% in six months) underscores its momentum as a low-risk play amid a supply-constrained uranium market.

Uranium Energy Corp Offers Shovel‐Ready U.S. Projects

"Our first company is Uranium Energy Corp. They own fully permitted shovelready projects in Texas and in Wyoming assets they acquired from Riotinto and Uranium 1 Americas when prices were extremely low. The key is institute recovery mining. They inject a solution underground. Then they extract the uraniumrich fluid and they process it without ever moving millions of tons of rock. This is good because this means that they can restart the production within months, not years. once, of course, the uranium prices justify it. They're also delivering directly into US government stockpile programs under the Department of Energy contracts. In a market where domestic supply is a national security priority, UEC has the permits, the infrastructure, and the political tailwind."

The speaker outlines Uranium Energy Corp as a company with shovel-ready projects and rapid production restart capability. Their involvement in government stockpile programs and the domestic security angle provides a strong tailwind for the stock.

UMC's Niche in Mature Node Chip Manufacturing

"Our next company is United Micro Electronics Corporation, which specializes in manufacturing chips using strong mature process technologies such as 22nm and 28nm nodes. UMC's new 22nm embedded high voltage platform for display driver IC's reduces power consumption by up to 30% and helps cut die size by roughly 10%. They announced a collaboration with Intel Corporation to develop a 12nm process platform as part of Intel's foundry strategy. Analyst lists United Micro Electronics with 12% upside over the next 12 months."

United Micro Electronics Corporation (UMC) is noted for its focus on mature, cost-efficient chip technologies, enhanced by a new 22nm platform and a strategic collaboration with Intel, positioning it with a 12% analyst upside.

Qualcomm's Evolving Growth Beyond Smartphones

"Our next company is Qualcomm Incorporated, and here's why they're interesting. Everyone knows them for smartphone chips, and that's still 70% of their revenue, but the real growth story is happening in two other places. First, their automotive business exploded 59% year-over-year. They just launched the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 at their September event, and the AI performance jumped 37% compared to the previous generation. Analysts list Qualcomm with 8.7% upside over the next 12 months."

Qualcomm (QCOM) is presented as diversifying its revenue streams beyond smartphones, with notable growth in its automotive segment and a strong new Snapdragon chip launch, although analyst upside is modest at 8.7%.

Nice Limited's Strategic AI and Buyback Boost

"Our next company is Nice Limited with the ticker NICE and they're a software giant helping big companies automate customer service and manage compliance all under one roof. They're best known for CX1, their AI-driven cloud platform that powers contact centers around the world. Management doubled down with a $500 million share buyback program and continued double-digit cloud growth, signaling both confidence and financial strength. Analysts list NICE with 51% upside over the next 12 months."

The speaker discusses Nice Limited (NICE) as a leading software firm in customer service automation, underscored by its aggressive share buyback and strong growth potential with a 51% analyst upside.

Consensus Cloud Solutions Positioned for Growth

"Our first company is Consensus Cloud Solutions with a ticker CCSI. And this company has quietly built a strong position in secure document and data workflows for regulated sectors like healthcare, government, and finance. They started over 25 years ago with cloud faxing, and now they're layering in natural language processing and AI to turn unstructured documents into structured, usable data. Analyst list consensus cloud solutions with 21% upside over the next 12 months."

The speaker highlights Consensus Cloud Solutions (CCSI) as a strong, established player in secure document workflows, emphasizing its evolution with AI and NLP technologies and noting a 21% analyst upside over the next year.