Potential Intrinsic Value Upside for NVDA if Chinese Sales Go Through

19 days ago

Parkev Tatevosian

"If Nvidia gains approval from the Chinese government and actually starts making these sales with these estimates that I've highlighted with an estimated $25 billion in free cash flow for 2026 and then sustaining that level and then increasing from that point forward, I would estimate a positive impact on Nvidia's intrinsic value per share of between 20 and 30%. So my intrinsic value per share would increase to between $240 to $275 per share if Nvidia is actually allowed to make these sales into China. That's a huge positive for Nvidia and that's why I'm surprised that the stock price is not reacting more positively. I think it's most likely because investors and Wall Street analysts are skeptical that the Chinese government will actually allow Nvidia to make these sales to China."

The analysis outlines that if Nvidia receives clearance to sell its H200 AI chips to China, its intrinsic value per share could jump by 20-30%, moving from an estimated $199 to a range of $240-$275. This positive catalyst is driven by significant free cash flow growth estimated at around $25 billion for 2026, although investor skepticism about regulatory approval remains a key risk.

Related Stocks