Nvidia Scenario Analysis: Potential Price Ranges

about 1 month ago

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA

"I think the most likely scenario is that Nvidia's forward PE multiple increases. If it increases to 28, then the stock price could rise to $29 per share. If the forward PE multiple increases to 32, then the stock price could rise to $238 per share. However, there's also a scenario where Nvidia's forward PE multiple declines. And if it declines to 20, then the share price could fall to $149 per share."

The speaker provides a scenario analysis for Nvidia (NVDA) stock by evaluating changes in its forward PE multiple. He outlines that while a constant PE could result in a modest 10% gain, a rise in the PE multiple—with a potential target of $238 at a PE of 32—could drive the stock significantly higher. Conversely, a drop in the multiplier to 20 would lower the share price to $149. Ultimately, he conveys that the most likely outcome is a price between $210 and $230 by the end of 2026, highlighting both the potential upside and risks associated with customer concentration and financing dynamics.

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