Bullish Macro Scenario: Stocks Rise with Lower Rates

about 1 month ago

Sven Carlin

"But let me immediately start with the bullish scenario for 2026. What can push the stock market higher? And there are plenty of things that can do that. The Fed politicians want lower rates. Lower rates help the stock market. financial assets has been so for the last 15 years. Therefore, the best protection is to own businesses that have pricing power no matter what the Fed does. And that's why stocks go up. If we look at interest rates over the last 40 years, those have been going nothing but down, just shortterm peaks. And immediately, as soon as the Fed peaks, it has to start lowering rates and did that. So already before the pandemic crisis, what have stocks done over the last 40 years, stocks have gone nothing but up for a total S&P 500 return with dividends reinvested of 12.11% over the last what's that? Almost 45 years. 10,000 initial investment grew to 1.5 million. So stocks only go up if rates go down."

The speaker outlines a bullish macro outlook for US stocks in 2026, emphasizing that lower interest rates historically drive stock appreciation. He supports his view with historical data showing consistent S&P 500 growth fueled by rate cuts, making the case for investing in companies with robust pricing power.

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