Uber's Dominant Network vs. AV Disruption Fears

about 1 month ago

Arya Radnia

"Yeah, absolutely. Um, so I mean we could we could start I mean in all honesty we could be spending the entire podcast on this. So I'll try to keep it somewhat brief. Uh but in general you know the business is is a very dominant network effect business. It has a verb mode. Uh I think we've all seen the free cash flow chart just go up and to the right lock step without failure. Uh it's it's a fundamentally great business and it's been dragged down by this uh sort of AV fear right. And um I'm on I'm I'm of the belief that uh very wrongfully it's been it's been dragged down over this and there's a lot more implications that people generally don't consider um when kind of just chalking it up. Oh, it's uh Tesla roadkill or it's um you know goo Google's roadkill and you know Whimo is going to come around and um sure it doesn't maybe look like that right now but this is just like Blockbuster in 2007 when Netflix came out or just like uh Nokia or Blackberry when the iPhone came out."

Arya emphasizes that while Uber's dominant network and strong free cash flow illustrate its robust business model, the market's overblown fears of autonomous vehicle disruption may be unfairly weighing down its valuation. He compares the potential slow erosion of Uber's moat to historical disruptions, suggesting that replicating Uber's scale is an enormous challenge for any competitor.

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