Caution on Gold's 5-Year Return and Speculation Risk

27 days ago

"Sure thing, won a lottery ticket, Dan. I've given it a 0-5% rating, which is below what I'm expecting the stock market to do over the next five years, with a safety score of four. It's exactly the reason Jason just said. We've seen a huge move in gold already. On the day that we're taping this, gold just moved over $4,000 an ounce for the first time. Don't get me wrong. A 5% return over the next five years would mean a price between 5,000, 6,000 an ounce by 2030. I think there's a chance that speculation pushes it above that, but I think we could also be in another one of the situations we've seen historically, where you get a big spike and then you get an equally abrupt downturn from that peak."

The speaker discusses gold's recent performance and its potential as an investment over the next five years, noting that a modest 5% return implies significantly higher prices that may be unsustainable. The commentary highlights the risk of a speculative spike followed by a sharp downturn, urging investors to consider the asset's role in diversification rather than expecting high returns.

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