SQM - at cyclically low prices, poised for high future returns.
6 months ago
Arx Global
"SQM: Diversified Chilean lithium producer trading cheaply amid lithium price crash (90% from peak, now $8k/t vs $15-25k/t needed for new projects). Bull case: 1) Structural EV/clean energy shift (17% CAGR to 2035), 2) Greenfield projects need higher prices, 3) Cash flow diversity from SPN/Iodine (57% of profits). Risks: China EV slowdown, extraction tech improvements. Target $14k/t lithium by 2029, 15x EV/EBIT, 22% IRR."
Sentiment
bullish
Conviction
Medium
Tier
Trade Call
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Episode Information
Episode:
SQM - at cyclically low prices, poised for high future returns.
Source:
Arx Global
Published:
June 21, 2025
Idea Type:
Stock Idea