Valuation Pessimism Amid AI Risks

5 days ago

Dan

"Yeah, I was pretty low. Lower than I usually am. I went 0 to 5% average annual return over the next five years and a safety score of three. And I'll tell you, my score would be worse except that we've already seen a 50% draw down in the stock. Dolingo, I mean, I just feel like it's almost in a lose-lose situation looking forward here because if artificial intelligence takes off, I think that alternatives to Dolingo are going to outperform it. But if artificial intelligence fails, Dolingo's kind of gone all in with the AI first strategy. And so I just don't really see the way out for him."

The speaker expresses a pessimistic outlook on Duolingo, predicting very low future returns (0-5% average annual) and highlighting a past 50% drawdown. He warns that if AI disrupts the learning space, competitors may outperform Duolingo, while even success in AI may leave the company in a risky, all-in position.

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